DrStool Posted August 3, 2023 Report Share Posted August 3, 2023 When I found out yesterday. I heard it through the grapevine that the market flashed a big sign. That's right. The market made a top and broke down without so much as the by-your-leave, obligatory bounce from spport that I was looking for. So much for that. The breakdown has a conventional measured move target of 4470. The 5 day and 2-3 day cycle projection of 4495 is done. Here's the hourly chart of the ES, 24 hour S&P 500 futures. It looks like they gotta get above 4510 this morning, or 4490 by the end of the New York trading day to reverse this. The next spport level below 4488 is around 4470. Rally is Tired But Here’s Why Not to Go Short Here' the 2 hour bar perspective. Question is, are they drawing a bead on 4455? Here's the Treasury market reaction to yesterday's quarterly refunding announcement. Breakout on the 10 year yield means breakdown in price. The hedge funds massive, record short hedge is still working, amazingly enough, but Primary Dealers are not particularly well hedged, and remain heavily leverage long on balance. Aye, there's the rub. Let the Scary Pictures On Primary Dealer Financing Do the Talking I will be working on an update of the Treasury supply data, and the current real time withholding and other tax collections picture this evening. Hopefully will have a post on that tomorrow AM. Here's last month's withholding data. We were warned that the economy was strengthening in contrast to all the soothsayer hand wringing. Facts is facts, and that's all we are interested in. Just the facts, M'am. Withholding Tax Rebound Sets Up a Bearish Fed Catch 22 For moron the markets, see: Gold’s Pain in the Bottom August 2, 2023 Thanks But No Thanks August 1, 2023 Let the Scary Pictures On Primary Dealer Financing Do the Talking July 31, 2023 Rally is Tired But Here’s Why Not to Go Short July 30, 2023 Correlations Don’t Matter Until They Do, Like Now July 23, 2023 Withholding Tax Rebound Sets Up a Bearish Fed Catch 22 July 6, 2023 It’s Not Your Daddy’s Liquidity Anymore July 5, 2023 We Now Know What is Driving the Rally June 20, 2023 The Fed’s Slush Fund is Working June 16, 2023 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 3, 2023 Author Report Share Posted August 3, 2023 No surprise, $21 billion flowed IN to the Fed's RRP slush fund yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 3, 2023 Author Report Share Posted August 3, 2023 Considering that $18 billion in new T-bills are scheduled to settle today, that inflow seems significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted August 3, 2023 Report Share Posted August 3, 2023 Lee, Do you get the sense that the large short position by hedge funds are simply one leg of their trade? Meaning, they may be short Treasuries and long stocks? Similar to the dealer activity? Seems when the bank crisis happened one prominent hedge fund completely went under with their short position. This would lead me to believe a sell off in the stock market would see a reversal in the short positioning in the bond market. With so much Treasury issuance coming to the end of the, this reversal of positioning could be what helps absorb some of this issuance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WTF Posted August 3, 2023 Report Share Posted August 3, 2023 Attention shoppers, rollback sale on QCOM, 10% off sale... as always, AI... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 3, 2023 Author Report Share Posted August 3, 2023 1 hour ago, potatohead said: Lee, Do you get the sense that the large short position by hedge funds are simply one leg of their trade? Meaning, they may be short Treasuries and long stocks? Similar to the dealer activity? Seems when the bank crisis happened one prominent hedge fund completely went under with their short position. This would lead me to believe a sell off in the stock market would see a reversal in the short positioning in the bond market. With so much Treasury issuance coming to the end of the, this reversal of positioning could be what helps absorb some of this issuance. I honestly don't know but I don't think it's going to go well in terms of absorption. The implied measured move target of this pattern is 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BurntOnce Posted August 3, 2023 Report Share Posted August 3, 2023 good thing doc escaped FL It seems destined to become a leper colony. "Leprosy cases are surging in Florida, said the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), with a new report suggesting the central area of the state may have become an “endemic location” for the infectious, potentially debilitating disease." https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/aug/01/florida-leprosy-cases-increase-cdc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted August 3, 2023 Report Share Posted August 3, 2023 green! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WTF Posted August 3, 2023 Report Share Posted August 3, 2023 🔻 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted August 3, 2023 Report Share Posted August 3, 2023 Amazon - great results. Now, just 20 m to apple Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted August 3, 2023 Report Share Posted August 3, 2023 Apple iphone and ipad sales lower than expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WTF Posted August 3, 2023 Report Share Posted August 3, 2023 $0.65 EPS for AMZN - a stock trading way above $100/share... your definition of great and mine are way different... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted August 3, 2023 Report Share Posted August 3, 2023 Apple - typical quarter, no new product release so a boring quarter. Flat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WTF Posted August 3, 2023 Report Share Posted August 3, 2023 Looks like AAPL giving the dip buyers a chance to get in... how sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted August 3, 2023 Report Share Posted August 3, 2023 Many stocks which reported after hours and went up first, reversed and are now down quite huge. If they can‘t stop the 10 year from moving higher stocks are in trouble… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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