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Overnight Pattern Says Market Will Do this Today with US Treasury Driving 2/23/23

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It's an inverse head and shoulders with a conventional measured move target of 4045-50 on the ES 24 hour hourly futures chart, which mimics the cash S&P 500. But it will get there only if it clears the neckline of this pattern. That neckline is at 4015-18. 

Cycle structures actually favor the bears a bit here. The market has switched back to idling in 2.5 and 5 day waves over the past 10 days. Both are due to top out right now, around 8 AM New Yak time. Cycle oscillators have been rising, but have turned flat at the zero line in the past couple of hours. 

If they do break out upwards, the first resistance and initial target looks like 4030.  

If they don't break out topside here, then we gotta look for the bottom of the range again at 3977. First at least a bounce there.


Meanwhile, for the big picture.  Bears Challenge Bulls to A Duel – Here’s Who Gets Shot

Working in the bulls favor, today only, is a US Treasury Blue Plate Special. It is settling the paydown of $48 billion in Treasuries today, only partly offsetting the $73 billion in coupon issuance settlements scheduled for tomorrow and next Tuesday. And it pales in comparison to the $210 billion in net new bills that the Treasury slammed onto the market since Jan 31.  I will post a longer term review and outlook in this week's Liquidity Trader updates tomorrow. Here's the latest on that.

The hourly chart of the 10 year yield leaves little doubt on where this is headed. This move started when the Treasury decided to go whole hog on massive T-bill issuance while paying down internal IOUs to circumvent the debt ceiling restrictions. US Treasury Throws A Shocker to Reverse the Stock Market Outlook



For moron the markets, see:

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