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Bears are in Trouble 1/5/23


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19 minutes ago, fxfox said:

Yes, right. But wasn‘t that almost always bearish for stocks?

Oy. 

No, debt ceiling forces the cessation of net debt issuance. It's bullish for both stocks and bonds. 

Default is another story. Conventional wisdom is that it would be bearish. I can see their point, but I think it would be wildly bullish for stocks.

Treasuries, not so much. 

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13 minutes ago, DrStool said:

Oy. 

No, debt ceiling forces the cessation of net debt issuance. It's bullish for both stocks and bonds. 

Default is another story. Conventional wisdom is that it would be bearish. I can see their point, but I think it would be wildly bullish for stocks.

Treasuries, not so much. 

Ah ok, thanks. I only thought about those times in the past when we ran into the debt ceiling and the market didn‘t like that. Once the ceiling was lifted the market took off.

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6 minutes ago, fxfox said:

Ah ok, thanks. I only thought about those times in the past when we ran into the debt ceiling and the market didn‘t like that. Once the ceiling was lifted the market took off.

Really? Show me an example. 

I always thought that if you remove supply from the market, it's bullish. And when you put massive amounts of supply on the market, and the Fed isn't there to buy it, that's bearish. I guess I learn something new every day. 

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7 minutes ago, fxfox said:

Ah ok, thanks. I only thought about those times in the past when we ran into the debt ceiling and the market didn‘t like that. Once the ceiling was lifted the market took off.

It just goes to show you. Don't necessarily trust an eye witness.

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7 minutes ago, DrStool said:

Really? Show me an example. 

I always thought that if you remove supply from the market, it's bullish. And when you put massive amounts of supply on the market, and the Fed isn't there to buy it, that's bearish. I guess I learn something new every day. 

When there was a blockade in the House and there were epic discussion if the ceiling gets lifted or not the market was nervous and didn‘t go straight up.

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7 hours ago, fxfox said:

When there was a blockade in the House and there were epic discussion if the ceiling gets lifted or not the market was nervous and didn‘t go straight up.

Show your work. 

 

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