DrStool Posted September 30, 2022 Report Share Posted September 30, 2022 13 hours ago, bob osso said: So Doc, does that mean there was no one at the FED (or their seconds) hinting to these guys that they were waaay on the wrong side of what they were planning to do? I mean, if guys are all in cahoots, letting them blow up seems pointless if they're gonna get a bailout anyway. Why not head it off before it gets there? Or was that the plan all along somehow? Honestly, I try not to think about the Fed's motivations, or what they might do. Or why the Primary Dealers do what they do. I think about what they do do. ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 30, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 30, 2022 Sorry I couldn't resist. And now, back to our regularly scheduled programming. Here's the hourly chart of the ES, 24 hour S&P futures. It's gravitating toward the upper portion of its downtrend channels, and the lower portion of its uptrend channel. I mean, I just have nothing intelligent to say about this. What else is new? So, we wait for the market to tell us something. Meanwhile, back at the big picture: Swing Trade Screens – Getting Shorter, Life Must be Lived! September 27, 2022 Stock Market in Crash Mode September 26, 2022 Markets Face Catastrophe as Dealers Mitigate Too Little Too Late September 26, 2022 Small Comfort for Gold Holders September 23, 2022 Fed Speeds Into Dead Man’s Curve, More Black Tuesdays Ahead September 15, 2022 There Will Be More Black Tuesdays September 14, 2022 Withholding Tax Collections Collapsed in August But BLS Data Won’t Show It September 2, 2022 Warnings of August Liquidity Crash Come to Fruition – Here’s What to Do August 28, 2022 Has Rule Number One Been Repealed? August 18, 2022 “As Good as It Gets” Was Good While It Lasted August 6, 2022 Treasury Confirms Supply Tsunami We Expected – Will Obliterate Everything August 3, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted September 30, 2022 Report Share Posted September 30, 2022 I can't help myself. There is do do and then there is doo-doo. So as luck would have it Mr. Osso is in exactly the right place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted September 30, 2022 Report Share Posted September 30, 2022 THE GUILT OF GILT So the UK government decides to go chapter 11 even more quickly than it was...(or is that IMF program...so 70's isn't it...) So the GILT bondholders finally realise they are the bag holders.... What took them so long?????? Anyway now "forced" QE.... Seems like a nice future template for the USA....... "Forced QE" "You save us or we blow up the bond market" It worked so well in Sept 2019. Why should'nt it work again????? Yes we live in an age when blackmailing central banks is the path to wealth and riches...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted September 30, 2022 Report Share Posted September 30, 2022 The simple fact is over the last 10 years the bondholders have been fattened for the slaughter by feeding them all the low rate corn they wanted...... Then in 2022 the FED took out the axe............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 30, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 30, 2022 Speaking of fattening for the slaughter: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted September 30, 2022 Report Share Posted September 30, 2022 BEA: Inflation comes in hot! YoY PCE +6.2% (0.3% MoM) Goods +8.6% Services +5.0% Food +12.4% Energy +24.7% Core PCE +4.9% (0.6% MoM) https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/personal-income-and-outlays-august-2022-and-annual-update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted September 30, 2022 Report Share Posted September 30, 2022 FED'S BRAINARD: THE FED IS DETERMINED NOT TO WITHDRAW PREMATURELY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted September 30, 2022 Report Share Posted September 30, 2022 1 hour ago, Jimbo said: The simple fact is over the last 10 years the bondholders have been fattened for the slaughter by feeding them all the low rate corn they wanted...... Then in 2022 the FED took out the axe............ There is now a mathematical limit to what the Fed can do before causing a debt crisis. A debt crisis that was over two decades in the making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted September 30, 2022 Report Share Posted September 30, 2022 JEFFERY GUNDLACH SAYS BONDS ARE CHEAP I beg to differ The FED will have to pivot at some point to save the bond market....just look at the UK...... This will mean inflation and soft default and eventually higher rates.... The market is anticipating this....more printing..... Hard default will not be allowed by the FED as it will be too catastrophic.... Its quite happy to see the greater fool assets...SPACs, Crapto, memes etc lose all their value..... But it wont allow large scale corporate default..... It will draw a rate line in the bond market sand and defend it....... Where is that line and when it is reached will tell you when QE6 starts..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 30, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 30, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 30, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 30, 2022 Didn't break, so now the shorts cover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 30, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 30, 2022 Breathtaking volatility in the bond market. Treasuries are trading like crypto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted September 30, 2022 Report Share Posted September 30, 2022 Federal government current expenditures: Interest payments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 30, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 30, 2022 13 minutes ago, sandy beach said: Federal government current expenditures: Interest payments. Pretty soon it will be a trillion. That's $80 billion a month added to the defecate. $80 billion a month in additional Treasury supply. $80 billion a month that the market will be forced to absorb. Catastrophic. The clock is ticking for Fed monetization to resume. They're waiting for hard evidence of disinteryflation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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