Jimi Posted September 30, 2022 Report Share Posted September 30, 2022 47 minutes ago, sandy beach said: FED'S BRAINARD: THE FED IS DETERMINED NOT TO WITHDRAW PREMATURELY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted September 30, 2022 Report Share Posted September 30, 2022 I'd say we could be in for another cycle like the post 08 cycle except that political forces intend to destroy the governance of what were called Western Democracies. They know not what they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 30, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 30, 2022 That was the third higher low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted September 30, 2022 Report Share Posted September 30, 2022 1 hour ago, DrStool said: Pretty soon it will be a trillion. That's $80 billion a month added to the defecate. $80 billion a month in additional Treasury supply. $80 billion a month that the market will be forced to absorb. Catastrophic. The clock is ticking for Fed monetization to resume. They're waiting for hard evidence of disinteryflation. That would more or less rule out that we can see the Covid lows in SPX again. Maybe 3000, but not much lower and not for long. Like Jimbo said: The FED doesn‘t want big corps go down the crapper. They targeted the SPACs, NFT, Meme stocks and stuff like that. Those bubbles already bursted. What is left? Maybe Crapto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 30, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 30, 2022 53 minutes ago, fxfox said: That would more or less rule out that we can see the Covid lows in SPX again. Maybe 3000, but not much lower and not for long. Like Jimbo said: The FED doesn‘t want big corps go down the crapper. They targeted the SPACs, NFT, Meme stocks and stuff like that. Those bubbles already bursted. What is left? Maybe Crapto. I hate to speculate on what the Fed thinks, but seems to me that they're boxed in until the CPI numbers start coming down a couple months in a row. So if they start lower this month, that means maybe December, which is plenty of time for horrific damage to stocks and bonds. And that's if the September CPI does start coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted September 30, 2022 Report Share Posted September 30, 2022 The specific reason why I mentioned 3600(repeatedly) is because I consider a low below this area to be a "walk-away from 2008". Frankly speaking...I didn't want to see this for several reasons. I'll post a chart later on this subject when it's not so...timely. Just remember 3600 and 3900, the chart will fill in the blanks as to why I've been adamant on the topic. Tomorrow, October 1st is Mid-Cycle... As we go into the first, we're midway through the 30-day cycle that started on the 16th. From my perspective...it's valid until it isn't. This is why I'm just watching and waiting... In this chart, what it appears I'm saying here...is actually what I'm watching and yes, what I'm implying is the decline from August 16 is nothing more than the inverse...of the advance from June 16. a 4-month cycle. All of this should be resolved soon. Until it is...nothing to do but watch. If we do follow the 3500 decline path...I'd like to see a nice positive reaction into the 3720-3750 region....and then 3250. This will fulfill the 1000 point SPX decline I detailed before this nonsense started. It's all outlined in one of my prior charts... At 3250...the rest period starts. "1/2 of the FIRST decline will then be complete". Like I said when we first arrived at the swing point. When you sit just above the swing just like you're doing now...you're building cause to break through. That's where the two rules come in: 1) One day does not a new trend make, I'll judge today...by what I see tomorrow. 2) Volume at the break(or Volume at the turn.). Best, TCG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted September 30, 2022 Report Share Posted September 30, 2022 7 minutes ago, The CoinGuy said: "1/2 of the FIRST decline will then be complete". Horrifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted September 30, 2022 Report Share Posted September 30, 2022 19 minutes ago, Jimi said: Horrifying. To be forthright... I think that comes later. Best, TCG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted September 30, 2022 Report Share Posted September 30, 2022 31 minutes ago, The CoinGuy said: The specific reason why I mentioned 3600(repeatedly) is because I consider a low below this area to be a "walk-away from 2008". Frankly speaking...I didn't want to see this for several reasons. I'll post a chart later on this subject when it's not so...timely. Just remember 3600 and 3900...the chart will...fill in the blanks as to why I've been adamant on the topic. Tomorrow, October 1st is Mid-Cycle... As we go into the first, we're mid way through the 30 day cycle that started on the 16th. From my perspective...it's valid until it isn't. This is why I'm just watching and waiting... In this chart, what it appears I'm saying here...is actually what I'm watching and yes, what I'm implying is the decline from August 16 is nothing more than the inverse...of the advance from June 16. a 4-month cycle. All of this should be resolved soon. Until it is...nothing to do but watch. If we do follow the 3500 decline path...I'd like to see a nice positive reaction into the 3720-3750 region....and then 3250. This will fulfill the 1000 point SPX decline I detailed before this nonsense started. It's all outlined in one of my prior charts... At 3250...the rest period starts. "1/2 of the FIRST decline will then be complete". Like I said when we first arrived at the swing point. When you sit just above the swing just like you're doing now...you're building cause to break through. That's where the two rules come in: 1) One day does not a new trend make, I'll judge today...by what I see tomorrow. 3) Volume at the break(or Volume at the turn.). Best, TCG Lets say the top was not 4818, but 4850: So from 4850 to 3250 that‘s 1600, so another 1600 would bring us to 1650, which would be almost exactly the 2000 and 2007 top. So you think we test the 2000 and 2007 tops from above? Or do you mean that that other half of the decline starts from a higher level, lets say 3850, then we go 1600 down, to make THE low at 2250? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 30, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 30, 2022 Floating at the top of the crapper hand on the flusher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 30, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 30, 2022 Measured move of the top breakdown is... drumroll please... Buhler? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted September 30, 2022 Report Share Posted September 30, 2022 5 minutes ago, DrStool said: Measured move of the top breakdown is... drumroll please... Buhler? Oh man... it's Friday and I thought we'd get to the weekend without a pop quiz. 3500? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 30, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 30, 2022 British guilt hourly. This is as of the close 4 hours ago. They keep trying to payint a reverse head and shoulders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 30, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 30, 2022 Just now, Jimi said: Oh man... it's Friday and I thought we'd get to the weekend without a pop quiz. 3500? I mean for the big one. Not that little one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted September 30, 2022 Report Share Posted September 30, 2022 fxfox... Ever try to park an Aircraft Carrier into a tiny spot? I have...many times. It's not possible on your own...you have to have the tugboats come in and help. Imagine trying to park the stock market into a tight "Back to the Breakout" area at 3250? It's a tight fit... I think, for myself...I'd prefer to take such a large task one step at a time and "bring her in safely". Versus getting too far ahead of ourselves. Drip. Drip. Drip. I mentioned before and I'll reiterate now. I firmly believe this decline will chew traders up and spit them out quite easily...because of the sheer speed(of a tortoise). Everyone is used to rush rush rush. Get rich...yesterday already! That is the exact opposite of what I'm believing is now taking place. There is no need to rush, this market is going to unfold at a snails pace... One step at a time. For the more impatient among us...I developed a chart or three that would let you peek into what I'm viewing as I look forward. I'll re-post "Canary in the Coal Mine" below. Although...I thought I made it clear when I said I felt this wasn't a "One and Done like 2008", but maybe I didn't make myself clear enough. For this...I do apologize. "I firmly believe this decline will not take months...but years". At 2,24(x) to 2,25(x)....I believe the One is complete...but you're not Done. Not by a long shot. In the coming months(hint: next year)...for a time...I will change directions and I'll be screaming(telegraphing) everything I'm doing and thinking along the way. Although...with delay and obfuscation to those who don't watch my work closely. Why? That should be obvious. There is plenty(the whole world) who would work against your interests. Best, TCG oh...and... here ya go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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