Wake Me Up When It's Over 6/3/22

[DrStool]

The market has settled into one of those maddening, boring trading ranges that don't tell us anything. It has lasted 6 trading sessions, starting from before the holiday weekend. At the moment the range is defined as 4074-4190 on the ES 24 hour S&P fuguetures. That high is a bit lower than the high of 4202 as the range was starting to form, so bears can hang their hat on that. But bulls have the double bottom at 4073.9, with the second low 0.2 higher.

Those tiny differences actually matter. They usually serve as signals that the direction is sustainable in a time frame consistent with the duration of the low. The lows were about a day apart. The two highs are 4 days apart. Advantage, bears. 

But until the range breaks, we wait. Patiently or impatiently. That's your choice. I choose patience. Let the market do its thing. It will come to us eventually and give us a trend move that we can jump on. 

Now, does the ES need to break out of the range for us to pay attention? Not necessarily. On the upside yes. But on the downside, if it traverses more than half, say getting below 4130, then I'll get my bear suit from the dry cleaner and have it ready to wear. 

 

Meanwhile, the 10 year yield hasn't broken out yet, but it's close. It needs to clear 2.951. 

Meanwhile, we don't need Fedheads to tell us what they're going to do with ratifying rate moves in the market. It has no choice but to follow the market. And the 13 week T-bill shows us very well the supply/demand imbalance in the money a

For the big picture: 

• NEW The US Economy, Including Jobs, Collapsed in May June 2, 2022
• Quantitative Tightening is Here, and the Effect Will Be Devastating June 1, 2022
• A Great Week for Swing Trade Screen Picks May 31, 2022 

• Shot from Guns, This Market Looks Like Puffed Rice May 30, 2022
• We Hold Our Gold Miners, Add Another May 24, 2022
• Even Steven in This Week’s Swing Trade Screens May 23, 2022
• Stocks Are Ahead of the Curve May 23, 2022
• Dealer Positions Show It’s Not Getting Better and It Should Get Worse May 15, 2022

If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! 

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[Jimbo]

THE LONG BOND

So TLT has lost 10% YTD.

And remember thats just the nominal loss ....in real terms you have to add inflation in......how about 18% real. 

By the time this is all over the loss will be 30-50% nominal.

And even more in real terms.

[fxfox]

13 minutes ago, Jimbo said:

THE LONG BOND

So TLT has lost 10% YTD.

And remember thats just the nominal loss ....in real terms you have to add inflation in......how about 18% real. 

By the time this is all over the loss will be 30-50% nominal.

And even more in real terms.

and let's not forget that in all those years since whatnot "long TLT" was the play in times of "stress". Furtherore the alternative trade in times of stress "long consumer staples" doesn't work either. 

AND. Bitcoin shows us what it reeally is. Nothing else but a measurement for excess liquidity.

Bitcoin is a big hoax. It will go into history books as THE sign of the raging 2010s bull. It will be like the "cash burning rate" as symbol for the late 90s bull. 

[Jimbo]

THOUGHTS ON CRAPTO

Just a PONZI scheme that soaked up a large part of the excess liquidity from the big 40% M2 print.

No big print now (well less of a print anyway....M2 still increasing) so no liquidity to push crapto higher.

So it collapses under the weght of its lack of intrinsic value....ie..no real income and the transactional and mining costs.

A wealth transfer vehicle just like SPACS.

A wealth transfer scheme just like long bond funds were in 2019 and 2020 when they basked in the high returns of endless FED provided liquidity which turned real bond rates negative. 

Think of the big print as basically a welfare scheme for fraudsters.

Money is getting smarter....slowly.....as this bear wears on.

Note the staking schemes in Crypto are just PONZI engines designed to attract the dumb money and provide the liquidity so the insiders can cash out their large stakes.

However if/when the FED goes full print again expect a partial resubstantiation of the craptoverse and the other WTV's. 

[MisFit Kid]

Saw these guys at the TX Jam 1986

 

[DrStool]

Still stuck in this multiple crossing zone. 

[DrStool]

Sport lines converge just below 4100. See how they run. 

[DrStool]

By the way, the jobs report is just wrong. They'll pay for it in a month or two. 

[fxfox]

Gotta break that goddam EMA 200 hourly now

[DrStool]

This market is such a tease. 

[Jorma]

Musk and Dimon are on the screens talking doom.

[DrStool]

Bonne weekend tout le monde!