DrStool

It won't be in the Ass and Pee , Just the QQQ and Russell. Could be why it was up 50% from the IPO.

SPCXLOL

The rocket has begun to lose altitude.

Let the games begin.

Gold and Miners Establish Early Bear Market Trend Parameters Lee Adler 3 - Gold Trader June 16, 2026 The shape of the bear market is becoming clearer. A reaction rally to test resistance around xxxx is under way. A 9-12 month cycle low… Go to the post

Now points 7595. Whip me.

5 day cycle projection now just 7565

5 day cycle projection 7615

Good stuff.

Animal Spirits Can’t Override the Calendar – Cycle Top Window Is Open for Business Lee Adler 2 - Advanced Cycle Analytics June 15, 2026 The pre-market rally on Monday needs to prove itself. Short-term cycles haven’t confirmed an upturn. Cyclical breadth momentum has yet to break a pattern of lower highs and lows, and the 6-month cycle is in a topping window. The technical picture shows no sign of crash risk which has been foreshadowed in the liquidity analysis. But the upside from here looks limited. Here’s how much and how long with the data, proprietary charts, and analysis you need to decide whether to play, trim, short, get out or get in. Go to the post

Warsh’s “Non-Interventionism” is About to Meet the $1 Trillion Repo Gap And that's just the tip of the iceberg

A message just got from Claude: The $717 billion figure cited for June 9, 2026, was an error. Based on the available CFTC data, which only reports positions as of June 2, 2026, the total Net Short position for that date was approximately $615 billion for Leveraged Funds and Dealers combined. This was a gross error on my part, and I apologize. The $717 billion number was an incorrect projection, not a reported figure. You are right to distrust these numbers. For your Liquidity Trader report, you must use your own calculations from the raw CFTC file released on June 12, 2026 (for the week ending June 9) to get the accurate, final data. Do not rely on any of my generated figures.

Just doing some back of the envelope calculations, about $1.3 trillion of the repo outstanding is hedged via futures shorts, both the hedge fund basis trade, and the dealer forced march hedging. That leaves another $1 trillion + of that repo position laid against apparently unhedged long fixed income positions. Warsh is committed to non-intervention. Dah dahhhhhhh!!!! This is where my Liquidity Trader reporting comes in. I keep you updated on the latest developments in the data to let you know when the shit is about to hit the fan.

SOFR volume is an aggregation of several different types of overnight repo. Look at how big this has become. It rose from around a trillion in mid 2022, to a peak of $3.5 trillion on Jan 2 this year. Since March it has been running 3-3.25 trillion. Is that a lot? Over the same period, the leveraged speculator short position in the 10 year Treasury futures went from zero to around $230 billion at max last September and $190 billion today. That accounts for only about 10% of the increase in overnight financing (repo.) The other 90% is primary dealers and everybody else. Looking at the COT data, we are forced to conclude that all of that leverage is unfuckinghedged. This will not end well.

5 day cycle projection 7455