DrStool

Jeff used to be a mainstream bear. He was with Alhambra out of Coral Gables, working from West Palm. Had lots of charts. That was back when there were a few guys I used to follow. Mainly Doug Noland, and a few others. But I could never understand Jeff. He was a suit and tie guy back in the day. Now he just looks unwell. And I still have no clue what he's talking about. I am not a dollar anal cyst though. To me, it's a byproduct. Its value relative to other currencies is a matter of which monetary system is creating the most money relative to another. So, why are foreign central banks redeeming and selling their Treasuries. Yes, that gives them USDs. What do they do with them? Well, their depositors could be making use of them to buy USD denominated assets. Or they could be paying off USD denominated debt? Or they could be planning trips to the US, well not usually, but for the World Cup, looks like it, huh. I just don't know whether any of the dollar's movements have any discernible "meaning." There are too many moving parts, and so what if we have an idea which it is? I know that there's solid evidence that foreign central banks have been dumping Treasuries since Jan 2025. That gives them USDs. What happens to the USDs after that, who knows and what difference does it make. God bless the currency traders.

Moment of truth

I originally posted this on March 31. Aged perfectly.

I asked Claude to summarize yesterday's retail sales headlines to get a flavor of the bullish bullshit. Here's her response: Summary: US Retail Sales Report (May 2026 data), released Wednesday, June 17, 2026 The Commerce Department's Census Bureau reported retail and food services sales rose 0.9% month-over-month to $763.7 billion, well above the ~0.5% consensus forecast, with April revised down to a 0.4% gain. Year-over-year sales were up 6.9%. Gasoline stations (+3.4%) led the gains as pump prices climbed amid the Iran conflict; the "control group" used in GDP calculations rose a more modest 0.7%. Specific headlines by outlet: Reuters: "Strong US Retail Sales Underscore Economy's Resilience Despite Iran War" Bloomberg (news article): "US Retail Sales Jumped in May Despite High Gasoline Costs" Bloomberg (Yahoo Finance syndication of the same Bloomberg piece): "US Retail Sales Rise in Broad Gain Despite Higher Gas Prices" Bloomberg Television: "US Retail Sales Surge in May Despite High Gasoline Prices" (Michael McKee segment) CNBC (video/on-air segment): "Retail sales up 0.9% in May, more than expected" (Rick Santelli) Associated Press (widely syndicated, including to US News/Yahoo): "Retail Sales up a Strong 0.9% in May, Underscoring the Resilience of the US Consumer" AFP (Dow Jones/WSJ-survey referenced, syndicated via Digital Journal): "US retail sales beat expectations in May as energy costs stay high" Transport Topics (TT), picking up AP's wire copy: "Retail Sales Increase a Strong 0.9% in May" AJOT (Reuters wire republish): "US retail sales beat expectations in May" Common thread: Every legitimate June 17, 2026 headline frames this as a beat — actual 0.9% vs. ~0.5% expected — with the Iran-driven gasoline price spike as the explanatory subplot, and the fading tax-refund cushion as the cautionary note going forward. Yeah right. So I present this chart and let you see for yourselves how impressive the number really was when you strip out the media and mainstream economists lack of adjustment for inflation and for the sharp increase in gas station sales because of the 25% spike in gas prices. Excluding the anomaly in early 2025, this is the worst performance of real retail sales in 2 years. Down a hair over 1% year to year, versus -0.85% the prior month. So not only was it down in May, it was down more than in April. The bottom line is that the consumer is not resilient at all. She is dead in the water.

Primary Dealers Under Pressure as Their Inventory Value Drops and Short Hedges Surge Lee Adler 1 Macroliquidity™ June 17, 2026 Primary dealers are absorbing record Treasury supply. Evidence implies that there are losses but dealer futures short hedges are at historic extremes, so there may be some protection. The June liquidity cushion is smaller than last year and Treasury supply continues at astronomical levels. These conditions keep the system dangerously close to a stress event starting in July when June T-bill paydowns end. Go to the post

In 2 years SpeceX will be $5.

It won't be in the Ass and Pee , Just the QQQ and Russell. Could be why it was up 50% from the IPO.

SPCXLOL

The rocket has begun to lose altitude.

Let the games begin.

Gold and Miners Establish Early Bear Market Trend Parameters Lee Adler 3 - Gold Trader June 16, 2026 The shape of the bear market is becoming clearer. A reaction rally to test resistance around xxxx is under way. A 9-12 month cycle low… Go to the post

Now points 7595. Whip me.

5 day cycle projection now just 7565

5 day cycle projection 7615

Good stuff.