DrStool

I originally posted this on March 31. Aged perfectly.

I asked Claude to summarize yesterday's retail sales headlines to get a flavor of the bullish bullshit. Here's her response: Summary: US Retail Sales Report (May 2026 data), released Wednesday, June 17, 2026 The Commerce Department's Census Bureau reported retail and food services sales rose 0.9% month-over-month to $763.7 billion, well above the ~0.5% consensus forecast, with April revised down to a 0.4% gain. Year-over-year sales were up 6.9%. Gasoline stations (+3.4%) led the gains as pump prices climbed amid the Iran conflict; the "control group" used in GDP calculations rose a more modest 0.7%. Specific headlines by outlet: Reuters: "Strong US Retail Sales Underscore Economy's Resilience Despite Iran War" Bloomberg (news article): "US Retail Sales Jumped in May Despite High Gasoline Costs" Bloomberg (Yahoo Finance syndication of the same Bloomberg piece): "US Retail Sales Rise in Broad Gain Despite Higher Gas Prices" Bloomberg Television: "US Retail Sales Surge in May Despite High Gasoline Prices" (Michael McKee segment) CNBC (video/on-air segment): "Retail sales up 0.9% in May, more than expected" (Rick Santelli) Associated Press (widely syndicated, including to US News/Yahoo): "Retail Sales up a Strong 0.9% in May, Underscoring the Resilience of the US Consumer" AFP (Dow Jones/WSJ-survey referenced, syndicated via Digital Journal): "US retail sales beat expectations in May as energy costs stay high" Transport Topics (TT), picking up AP's wire copy: "Retail Sales Increase a Strong 0.9% in May" AJOT (Reuters wire republish): "US retail sales beat expectations in May" Common thread: Every legitimate June 17, 2026 headline frames this as a beat — actual 0.9% vs. ~0.5% expected — with the Iran-driven gasoline price spike as the explanatory subplot, and the fading tax-refund cushion as the cautionary note going forward. Yeah right. So I present this chart and let you see for yourselves how impressive the number really was when you strip out the media and mainstream economists lack of adjustment for inflation and for the sharp increase in gas station sales because of the 25% spike in gas prices. Excluding the anomaly in early 2025, this is the worst performance of real retail sales in 2 years. Down a hair over 1% year to year, versus -0.85% the prior month. So not only was it down in May, it was down more than in April. The bottom line is that the consumer is not resilient at all. She is dead in the water.

Primary Dealers Under Pressure as Their Inventory Value Drops and Short Hedges Surge Lee Adler 1 Macroliquidity™ June 17, 2026 Primary dealers are absorbing record Treasury supply. Evidence implies that there are losses but dealer futures short hedges are at historic extremes, so there may be some protection. The June liquidity cushion is smaller than last year and Treasury supply continues at astronomical levels. These conditions keep the system dangerously close to a stress event starting in July when June T-bill paydowns end. Go to the post

In 2 years SpeceX will be $5.

It won't be in the Ass and Pee , Just the QQQ and Russell. Could be why it was up 50% from the IPO.

SPCXLOL

The rocket has begun to lose altitude.

Let the games begin.

Gold and Miners Establish Early Bear Market Trend Parameters Lee Adler 3 - Gold Trader June 16, 2026 The shape of the bear market is becoming clearer. A reaction rally to test resistance around xxxx is under way. A 9-12 month cycle low… Go to the post

Now points 7595. Whip me.

5 day cycle projection now just 7565

5 day cycle projection 7615

Good stuff.

Animal Spirits Can’t Override the Calendar – Cycle Top Window Is Open for Business Lee Adler 2 - Advanced Cycle Analytics June 15, 2026 The pre-market rally on Monday needs to prove itself. Short-term cycles haven’t confirmed an upturn. Cyclical breadth momentum has yet to break a pattern of lower highs and lows, and the 6-month cycle is in a topping window. The technical picture shows no sign of crash risk which has been foreshadowed in the liquidity analysis. But the upside from here looks limited. Here’s how much and how long with the data, proprietary charts, and analysis you need to decide whether to play, trim, short, get out or get in. Go to the post

Warsh’s “Non-Interventionism” is About to Meet the $1 Trillion Repo Gap And that's just the tip of the iceberg