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Gimme Back Day 5/23/24

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Yesterday was Gimme Back Day. That's the day when Wall Street dealers collectively say, Gimme Back My Inventory!  They shake the tree. The low hanging fruit falls off. They pick it up from the ground and redistribute it in the morning at higher prices.  Higher and Higher

And if they like what they see, they'll stop selling into the rally and let their big hedge fund customers who are short, get squeezed. Then it's off to the races. 

Is that where we're headed today? Let's take a look at the hourly ES fucutures for some hints. First a zoomout to the 2 hour bars for perspective. The trend is, shall we say, well defined. There are multiple uptrend channels at work here. Just to even break the centerlines, the S&P would need to be below 5325 at the NY close. That is also a spport level for the pullback currently under way as of 5 AM ET, which is 11 AM here in Yourope. So again, if they don't break that, the biass is all to the upside.

The high base breakout measures to 5360. 


As for the usual 1 hour bar look, yesterday's Gimme Back fit a pattern of 3 day cycle lows every 3 days of late. That suggests that today will be an up day. There's a 2-3 day cycle projection of 5355. This afternoon, upper trend channel lines cluster around 5350-55. I wouldn't bet against that, although I'm a sheptick about breaking through this. We'll just have to see. Meanwhile, sit on your Can, hold your Water, and let go of your Gas. 

I have been traveling for the past few days. Today I'm in the beautiful city of Torino Italy. I did not know that Torino was Italy's 4th largest city, after Roma, Milano, and Napoli. When I got off the train, I could feel and see the hustle and bustle. Italians are like New Yorkers. They love to honk their horns, they especially love to drive through rain puddles fast enough to soak the people standing on the sidewalk waiting for the trams and buses. Ask me how I know this. 

But I digress. Turin's population within city limits is nearly 900,000, and it is incredibly dense, with 17,000 people per square mile. That compares with my hometown of Philadelphia with 12,000 people per square mile. San Francisco is slightly more dense, with 18,600 people, although I'm not sure if that counts the people sleeping in tents and doorways. 

But I digress again. 

One reason I doubt that yesterday's Gimme Back is sufficient for a mewn lawnch t-day is that my trading screens continue to show narrow participation, which is more typical of a late stage move than a momo-a-gogo.  The first run through of the screens identifies charts with intermediate term trend setups that are propitious for a short term move. That identified only 49 buys and 52 sells out of the universe of 1348 NYSE and Nadsaq traded issues that meet my price and volume minimums. So there's no real thrust here. 

Then of those only 2 buys and 1 sell actually triggered yesterday. Slim pickins, but I'll take a look to see if I want to add them to my trading port. 

I was in front of my screen yesterday when the Gimme Back Came. Looking at 2 hour bars of the picks in my port, I liked what I sore, so I added massively, ok not massively, but I did increase the size of my holdings. Today sets up as a hold day. These buys are less than a week old. I will sell nor whine before it's time. 

And, Oh, one more ting. If this bad boy goes through 5350 by this afternoon, then we could be looking at 5400-5410 pdq. 

From Torino, Italia, Cha oh for now oh. 


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  • DrStool changed the title to Gimme Back Day 5/23/24
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Could it beeeeeeee....?????


This was announced today. 


That's a bone crusher, but the effect is normally felt on or a few days before or just after the settlement date. 

Are we surprised? No. 


...we don’t have a strong grip on this any more because the TBAC is no longer issuing detailed week by week supply estimates. The TBAC projected gross issuance of $257 billion for the May 31 settlement. Total maturing paper that day is $116 billion for net issuance of $156 billion.  ...That’s simply crushing. Unless the Treasury does something about it, like massive T-bill paydowns in the week prior, that will put a hurtin’ on the stock and bond markets on May 31, or a few days before and after. Therefore, “Sell in May and go away,” looks like a good idea again this year. The time has come. The time is now.

Why Sell in May and Go Away

The problem is that the technical work has been more bullish than that, and I gave that more weight in the short run. Now that may have changed. I'll have to see how things look this weekend. Higher and Higher

Today was a surprise, but if there's no rebound Tamara, this will be a pretty pretty pretty good looking top. 

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Yes, the attempt to pump the meme stocks again has been a failure.

Just not enough remaining background  liquidity to use.

This is not 2021. 

Treasury taking it all to feed the defecit beast.

In the mean time China dumps treasuries and buys gold.

(Which explains a lot of the price spike).

Having learned the Russian lesson of what happens .....to foreign reserves....when war breaks out.


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