DrStool Posted February 2 Report Share Posted February 2 Whatever the Load said on Wednesday, the market changed its mind about it on Thursday. But while it looked like a breakout, it really wasn't. Yet. As you can see on the ES 24 hour S&P futures, we have a megaphone pattern developing. Yes they made a new high, but they didn't break the slightly rising resistance trendline. To do that would require an hourly close above 4945 at the close of New York trading today. And bears, don't even think about it unless the ES is below 4915 at the close. Swing Trade Screen Picks – Clearing Out the Shorts Meanwhile, look at the 10 year Treasury yield. Some big bullish bets have been placed in the past couple of days. We're set up for something big here. The market will tell us over the next couple or 3 days. Fed Balance Sheet Right Now Says Bears Should Get Ready to Rumble In the Goldrums LEE ADLER 3 - GOLD TRADER FEBRUARY 2, 2024 A possible 13-week cycle upturn here could finally get gold out of the doldrums but it would need to clear xxxx for the impetus to get back to xxxx. But in the bigger picture, there are some bad signs. Non-subscribers click here for access. Subscribers, click here to download the report. Meanwhile, I’m keeping two mining charts on the pick list. Non-subscribers click here for access. Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days! For moron the markets, see: In the Goldrums February 2, 2024 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Clearing Out the Shorts January 30, 2024 The Danger Is that the Rally is Narrowly Based January 29, 2024 Fed Balance Sheet Right Now Says Bears Should Get Ready to Rumble January 28, 2024 Primary Dealers Are Maxed Out Again January 24, 2024 US Economy Crashed in December – Nope, See Update January 3, 2024 This Chart Tells Us Exactly When the Bull Market Will End November 26, 2023 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 2 Author Report Share Posted February 2 It's a beautiful, sunny 63 degrees here today. I'm going to head out for the afternoon. Have fun and stay out of trouble! If you're interested in the local environment here, check out my instagram photo journal. https://www.instagram.com/p/C20kCIBsr5w/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link&igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA== Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted February 2 Report Share Posted February 2 payroll numbers do not seem to match the withholding data. is that correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted February 2 Report Share Posted February 2 russel 2000 contracts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted February 2 Report Share Posted February 2 Federal Tax Withholding Growth Slowed Significantly in January https://taxtracking.com/tax-withholding-growth-in-january-2024/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted February 2 Report Share Posted February 2 payrolls The data are strongly surprising and not in the direction most would have expected. Much better data than forecast on employment growth plus a fall in unemployment. I also note the strong increase in hourly pay (the largest monthly increase since November 2022). The data as a whole definitely argues for leaving interest rates unchanged. strong dollar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Takachi-1 Posted February 2 Report Share Posted February 2 will be interesting to see Doc's withholding numbers. A strong increase in pay and significant slowing of withholding would suggest the strong employment gains are "curious". Then again, its officially an election year now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted February 2 Report Share Posted February 2 Market doesn't beleive the Bureau of Liar Statistics numbers, otherwise we would be down 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 2 Author Report Share Posted February 2 2 hours ago, potatohead said: payroll numbers do not seem to match the withholding data. is that correct? I haven't run them for January yet. But it would be rare for them to match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 2 Author Report Share Posted February 2 Wow. Big number. It's not consistent with what I saw in the first half of January in the withholding data. But mostly this number should tie in with December withholding. Not even remotely close. Either something is wrong with the jobs data, or something is wrong with the withholding data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 2 Author Report Share Posted February 2 2 hours ago, SiP said: payrolls The data are strongly surprising and not in the direction most would have expected. Much better data than forecast on employment growth plus a fall in unemployment. I also note the strong increase in hourly pay (the largest monthly increase since November 2022). The data as a whole definitely argues for leaving interest rates unchanged. strong dollar. Source: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 2 Author Report Share Posted February 2 I am simply going to stop even attempting to explain the divergence between the BLS reports and the tax data. It's a mystery, wrapped in a riddle, inside an enema. https://liquiditytrader.com/index.php/category/monetary/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 2 Author Report Share Posted February 2 5 day cycle projection 4980. I don't know about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted February 2 Report Share Posted February 2 35 minutes ago, DrStool said: I am simply going to stop even attempting to explain the divergence between the BLS reports and the tax data. It's a mystery, wrapped in a riddle, inside an enema. https://liquiditytrader.com/index.php/category/monetary/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WTF Posted February 2 Report Share Posted February 2 Hmmm... crushed the last bear... could it be the bulls turn in the barrel... Long FNGD... guess I will find out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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