DrStool Posted June 13, 2023 Report Share Posted June 13, 2023 They don't get more orderly than this. Here's the hourly chart of the ES, 24 hour S&P fuguetures. The 5 day cycle projection is 4350-55. Trend resistance comes in at about 4360, but it's rising. If they clear that, then 4400, which by one method would be the conventional measured move target, would be within easy reach. This isn't just on the hourly. Looking at the 5 hour bars we see that the move came off a nice high base consolidation. But as it has gone parabolic, and cycle indicators reach the area of their last highs, we have to wonder if this isn't the end of the line. Rally Broadens as It Gains Momo For moron the markets, see: Rally Broadens as It Gains MomoJune 12, 2023 Swing Trade Chart Picks – Let Your Profits Run June 9, 2023 Gold Set Up for This Cycle Low June 7, 2023 Investors Breathe Sigh of Relief But D-Day Is Now June 6, 2023 Incomprehensible, That’s What You Are June 2, 2023 Modestly Hedged Dealers, Record Short Hedge Funds Suggest Disaster Ahead May 25, 2023 The Most Widely Forecast Economic Disaster In History May 16, 2023 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jp6 Posted June 13, 2023 Report Share Posted June 13, 2023 Has anyone wondered what the hell is Happening in the market? Nothing like 1929, Y2K or 2008 and no recession insight? What if everyone has it all wrong and market will have multiple head like 1966-1982 which will eat away your money with Inflation. What happened during 1966-1982? Yields went up stocks gone nowhere. Money was made trading. Buy low sell High. R we There yet again??? Forget 1929 dump around the corner and trade it like the market with more Inflation is on the way. Powell is no Paul Volker when he is paying Money out with RRP. One hand he is doing QT and with another hand giving money away. I have seen it all. There is nothing new under the sun. Only paper money get Killed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted June 13, 2023 Report Share Posted June 13, 2023 Doc, your view on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 13, 2023 Author Report Share Posted June 13, 2023 18 minutes ago, fxfox said: Doc, your view on this? What are reserves for 500 Alex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 13, 2023 Author Report Share Posted June 13, 2023 It's gibberish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 13, 2023 Author Report Share Posted June 13, 2023 Assets = Liabilities+ Capital That's all you need to know. It applies to the Fed's balance sheet just like to any entity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted June 13, 2023 Report Share Posted June 13, 2023 both nasdaq 100 and SP500 crossed 61,8% fibonnaci levels and open the doors to test ATH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted June 13, 2023 Report Share Posted June 13, 2023 "so you’re telling me we had a tech bubble because rates were zero and the Fed was doing QE; and now 2 years later with rates at 5 and the Fed doing QT we’re in another tech bubble?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisFit Kid Posted June 13, 2023 Report Share Posted June 13, 2023 7 minutes ago, SiP said: "so you’re telling me we had a tech bubble because rates were zero and the Fed was doing QE; and now 2 years later with rates at 5 and the Fed doing QT we’re in another tech bubble?" In other words.... "A nickel ain't worth a dime anymore" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 13, 2023 Author Report Share Posted June 13, 2023 RRPs are the Fed's recycle bin of QE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 13, 2023 Author Report Share Posted June 13, 2023 But under QE everything was in a bubble. Now bubbles are limited to specific sectors while fixed income and related sectors have suffered brutal bear markets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted June 13, 2023 Report Share Posted June 13, 2023 16 minutes ago, DrStool said: RRPs are the Fed's recycle bin of QE. Bingo....They can use it to prop certain asset classes. Provide the appearance of no recession while using executive orders and policy to delay debt repayments and other demands that would normally weigh on consumer discretionary spending and tax receipts. In other words the whole fucking game is manipulated to keep the appearance that America is solvent and everyone should be looking for the next bull market...blah blah blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 13, 2023 Author Report Share Posted June 13, 2023 In the stock and flow argument I always used to come down on the side of flow being more important. But in the end the excess liquidity that the Fed created is still out there in a vast pool that can be recycled until it is depleted by QT. And that is taking a very long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 13, 2023 Author Report Share Posted June 13, 2023 36 minutes ago, potatohead said: Bingo....They can use it to prop certain asset classes. Provide the appearance of no recession while using executive orders and policy to delay debt repayments and other demands that would normally weigh on consumer discretionary spending and tax receipts. In other words the whole fucking game is manipulated to keep the appearance that America is solvent and everyone should be looking for the next bull market...blah blah blah Well they haven't delayed debt repayment. I don't track consumer spending now closely but tax receipts have been falling for months. They show recession. Keep in mind that the rationale for a bull market is irrelevant. We saw this strength in tech developing months ago and called attention to it at that time. The rationale developed afterwards. I don't see manipulation here. I see the continued availability of excess liquidity that is being drained slowly. I labeled the RRPs a slush fund years ago. I warned that the money in them could be used to support stock prices. It does not take much to keep the S&P inflated. They only need to move seven stocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted June 13, 2023 Report Share Posted June 13, 2023 When „Silicon Valley“ is your business model you have to make sure that Silicon Valley works. It only works with a functioning VC/PE market and that only works well with excess liquidity. They will make sure that Silicon Valley works. You can bet your ass on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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