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Constipolitated Market Hits Target

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  And there you have it. 

23 hours ago, DrStool said:

No pullback or a shallow pullback would suggest a move into the 4130-35 range today.

Of course we're talking about very short term targets here in this thread. Go here for the pig bicture. 

And with each new day comes a new target. However, in this case, the market has been trending in such a narrow band, that 1-5 day cycle projections can't be done. To make cycle projections, we need cycles. And this market isn't cycling. It's just fibrillating higher. 

But we can project a target from the big base breakout. It's around 4170. And from the bigger base breakout, 4290. Although I don't expect that to happen today. But happen? Yes, and soon.  Sorry about that. It's April.  

What do we need to have any shred of a chance for some downside? First things first, they'd need to break 4115. Otherwise, fuggeddaboudit. 

-pday

The bond market is also feeling the April effect, starting with $43 billion in T-bill paydowns settling today and Thursday. Pump me up Scotty. That said, bond bulls (those who believe in the magic of an expected recession for which there's zero evidence of an arrival) have a challenge here. They need the 10 year yield to drop under 3.40, and soon, or there will be trouble in bondland. And that will mean trouble for the banks. And that will mean big, big trouble for the whole ball of wax.

-pdct

Meanwhile, there's a flight  out of the doolah, into the Heuro? Now there's a well managed currency. 🤓 

-pddr

And of course, lest we forget the flight to Safetycoin. Short term cycle projection 30k. Big base breakout measured move target 35K. Sick. 

-pden

Meanwhile, Mr. Goldfinger says he'll have some of the sauce that's cooking in that bowl. Short term cycle projection 2050. Big picture weekly reports here

-pdh2

I have a big liquidity overview coming up in a few hours with lots of cool chart porn to give you a clear picture of what we're up against.

Ciao for now! 

For moron the markets, see:

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German DAX doing ATH for the last 52 weeks. French CAC40 flirting with all time high, European Stoxx50 also in lala land.

In short - market are pricing great conditions and amazing state of economy.

Having in mind all CRE, RE, Banks etc problems, some recession readings its really hard to be on the "long side" of equities. at least me.

Really curious what will happen to gold on this juncture. 3000?

 

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2 hours ago, DrStool said:

  

The bond market is also feeling the April effect, starting with $43 billion in T-bill paydowns settling today and Thursday. Pump me up Scotty. That said, bond bulls (those who believe in the magic of an expected recession for which there's zero evidence of an arrival) have a challenge here. They need the 10 year yield to drop under 3.40, and soon, or there will be trouble in bondland. And that will mean trouble for the banks. And that will mean big, big trouble for the whole ball of wax.

 

Done.

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Bulletin: The US Treasury just announced another T-bill paydown. That brings the one week total, April 4-11, to $55 billion. That’s more than enough in the short term to offset negative macro liquidity drivers. This is the April tax season effect on steroids already, and it isn’t even April 15 yet. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

New game, new rules. In this report, I want to attempt to show you in more pictures and fewer words (hard for me), where things stand in terms of macroliquidity, as we embark on this new journey into the unknown. Unknown not just to us, but especially to clueless policymakers. After all, they’re the ones who created this mess in the first place. Yet, Wall Street thinks that they know how to fix it. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Since we no longer have the benefit of them knowing, and telling us, the full scope of policy in advance, we now have to pay even closer attention to the liquidity flows. Our hope is that that is good enough. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

As we know, money talks. Central Bank BS walks. Talk is cheap. Markets can’t and don’t anticipate the future. Money moves the markets. Follow the money. Read and react. That’s the name of the new game. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

So here are my readings on what I believe are critical measures that will help to give us a bit of clarity on where we are now and where this mess might be headed. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Where we’re headed in liquidity is still xxx xxxxxxx. The stock and bond market rallies are xxxing that. That is xxxxxxxxxxx over the long haul. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Yes, we know there are xxxxxxx that will promote xxxxxxx at xxxxxxxxxx. That’s particularly true now with the effect of April Treasury paydowns. But once that cash has run through the system, usually around the end of May, xxxxxxxx xxxxxx. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Will it even last that long? While the liquidity measures in the weeks ahead will help us to understand the context, we must rely on the Technical Analysis for shorter term timing. In terms of the big picture, the forces of liquidity aren’t xxxxxxxxx xxx. The hope that the Fed either will pivot, or already has, are xxxx the fumes that the markets are running on right now. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Again, this xxxxxxx sustainable. I might be a little xxxxx under the circumstances, but with a trigger finger. I’m not xxxxx anything, and not ready to get xxxx. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

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1 hour ago, Jorma said:

Luckily I have discovered film of Chairman Powell's method of keeping the system running smoothly.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cb6NS_F5xTE&ab_channel=TheEdSullivanShow

 

I saw that show live. That was a really big shew. Every Sunday night before Steve Allen. Then Candid Camera, and What's my line, with John Daly, Bennet Cerf, Dorothy Kill a Gallon before the show, Arlene Francis, and Steve Allen. Wait, he couldna been on both. Soupy Sales was on for awhile later on. He got kicked off for dirty jokes. 

What night was Jack Benny? Milton Berle? Sid Caesar? Perry Kimono? I Love Lucy? The Honeymooners. Leave It to Beaver? Dennis the Menace? 

The Loan Arranger was on every day. He was a Silver Bug. Always used to yell, I hold Silver! Ahoy! 

Superman always fought for Truth, Justice and the American Way. He was before the CBOE. 

My favorite on Ed Sullivan was Topo Giggio. And the night Ed introduced the Be a tulls. They wanted to hold my hand. 

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