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Up Up and Away, Again 3/3/23

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They keep managing to do this, while the market ultimately goes nowhere endlessly. Both stocks and bonds have rallied overnight and into the early morning hours. The 10 year yield has pulled back to 4% and stocks look like they are headed to da moon. The ES, 24 hour S&P fuguetures hourly bar chart now has a 5 day cycle projection of 4025. The 2-3 day cycle projection is only 4005. If this is another one of those 4 day numbers, then the 4025 area also looks about right. 

The way the channels set up now, this thing would seem to have a date with 4025 around mid day in New Yak. But there's also a ton of resistance suggested in the 3995-4005 range that they would need to crack. Doing so would clear the base of a nicely formed reverse head and shoulders pattern with a conventional measured move target of 4075. 

The good news from the bear's perspective is that 5 day cycle momentum has reached the area where these rallies have recently topped out. The bad news is that cycle oscillators aren't quite there yet. 

It looks like this.

Warning! Top Formation In Progress February 27, 2023


And check out how Satan saved the 10 year yield. 


A pullback to 3.97 would not violate the uptrend. But if they break that, then 3.90 would be next. Who knew! Here’s Why There Will Never Be Bull Markets Until This One Thing Happens February 26, 2023

Meanwhile, the yellow shit has scooped out a beautiful rounding reverse head and shoulders bottom. But to activate launch sequence, it needs to clear 1855. The hourly oscillator setup suggests that it's likely. Buckle up. Gold’s Rebound Is Coming! February 28, 2023


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Something doesn‘t fit. Generally. Given those massive rate hikes in a quite short time, equities should be much much lower. As if there still would be enough liqui out there. But where does this come from? The private hand? But that should at least show up in bank deposits, for example all the money from commuters, which don‘t commute anymore but work remote. They didn‘t put that money under their bed, either they bought stocks, consume more, or that money is in bank deposits….

Again, we are much much too high given those extraordinary rate hikes.

And when I look at DAX I ask myself if people have become totally nuts.

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It's the old stock and flow argument on money. So much excess money was created during QE, It continues to provide some support for prices. Just keep in mind that it is constantly diminishing. 

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Apparently from the far east-BoJ and PBOC; BoJ continuing to buy debt to suppress yields and PBOC fired up the presses around year end. Seems to have offset Fed/ECB easily in Jan. And Fed helped a bit(just) with TGA and RRP draws: ECB supposedly has done something similar at times.


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The accumulation distribution cycle in natural gas is quite regular. More so than in most other commodities. The hard commodities in particular often run into resistance and won't break down or out. But after a few days of churning, eventually they move in concert with the natural gas. 

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