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Trouble Begats More Trouble 1/19/23

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Which continues until there's a trouble climax. Are we there yet? Not yesterday. Today, the 5 day cycle projection on the hourly ES S&P 500 fuguetures has dropped to 3885. There are a couple of sport levels in that vicinity also. That doesn't seem like a trouble climax to me either. It may have bouncability, but 3870-72 looks more sportive. Today at least. 

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There's a small chance that the 5 day cycle projection is 3900. Round number syndrome at work. But we should know within the hour if it's a go or not. 

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  • DrStool changed the title to Trouble Begats More Trouble 1/19/23

Ah ha. Tiny coupon paydown on the 31st. $10bn. That's it for coupons. I'm not sure why anyone hasn't noticed for the last 3 months that while the Fed is raising rates that 10year Treasuries are down almost 1%.  I guess it's polite not to mention it but really, doesn't everyone know they've lost control of the long end? 

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22 minutes ago, Jorma said:

Ah ha. Tiny coupon paydown on the 31st. $10bn. That's it for coupons. I'm not sure why anyone hasn't noticed for the last 3 months that while the Fed is raising rates that 10year Treasuries are down almost 1%.  I guess it's polite not to mention it but really, doesn't everyone know they've lost control of the long end? 

They just turned the playbook upside down. Gonna have to put out a bulletin tonight. Unless that's just a red herring of some kind. 

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Nat Gas getting absolutely crushed, how low can it go?

My long YANG from yesterday getting beaten unmercifully today. (Worth the loss just to be able to say that.)  Watching Alibaba for my loss exit, a close above $117.50 could mean the China stocks have further to run on the upside.

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