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The Bond Market Crash Is Accelerating 10/21/22

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Yes...if the Fed drops the RRP rate below the FFR then money will come flooding out into short term treasuries.

At least that is the theory.

Its a giant battery of potential treasury purchases.....

But a lot could go into stocks as well.....


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I realize many of you have zero background in technical analysis and rely primarily on fundamentals.

Although, even a staunch fundamentalist will entertain a chart here and there that has been drawn up by economists and the occasional statistician.

On this very forum, I’ve seen a couple of fellow forum members draw up a chart or two. So I know some of you have exposure to technical analysis. Perhaps, through Elliott Wave or E&M? Typically these forms rely on utilizing indicators, wave counts or moving averages. I tend to avoid relying on this form of analysis and one of the first things I used to teach a new student is to turn off the indicators...and use nothing more than...instinct. Why? I equate using Indicators to a form of passivity that should be avoided. Much like watching television. And yes...there is a better way. When you turn off the indicators...you turn ON something else.

Now...for those who do deem themselves to be technical anal cysts or budding technical anal cysts...and are watching the “standard” indicators I’d imagine you’re viewing those positive divergences in the MACD(daily) and the Dover Sole condition we’re currently in and would conclude - The bottom is in.

While, we do have to respect the “Low with Nefarious Origins” from the 13th(more on that later)...let us not let this low lull us into any form of complacency. Lest I start to feel the need to remind you where crashes are born?

While I won’t use any indicators...I will occasionally use a wave count to make a point and I’m actually a fan of moving averages “to confirm turns”. Because, I do consider them to be “part of” a valuable form of analysis that has proven itself to work over time – consistently.

With that said…

Take a look at this chart. I’ve kept it simple because I don’t want to lose anyone.


Other people collect stamps...I collect bubbles.

Do you have any idea how rare it is for the 50 week MA to turn this hard into the 200? It's every bit as strong, if not stronger than 2000 and/or 2008.  Then...add the 50 crossing the 75(Black Arrow) just after the retest of the 50 from underneath?  As far as I know that IS the entry sequence into a stock market crash and I don't know of anyone who has studied this topic more than I have.   My work(research) on this subject is generational in nature.  I have literally spent my life studying the "patterned behavior" of stock market bubbles. 

I know by now you’re probably sick & tired of looking at my 2008 reference charts...so this time I used a different time frame for comparison. Although,  with each “major” bear market post '29...the story has always been the same no matter what time frame you're using.  The only exception is '37.  Where when you retested the 50 from underneath you immediately crashed and then bottomed before the 50/75 cross.   Also, please note...I said major.  '87 doesn't qualify.

From my perspective...

Going forward from the 13th of October low, you want to watch the advance closely as we head into the 35 week MA(3900 area). At this level...the market should start to get dizzy because it’s being choked from several different directions. Since we spiked 100 points below 3600 to fulfill the 400 point H&S, you do need to allow for another 100 point spike on the high end.  This is why I put a band(+10/-10) around the 35 week moving average. If it overcomes, THEN we can begin to investigate other possibilities, but frankly...as I’m sitting here...nothing is standing out to me that isn’t what should be occurring within this time frame of a typical bear market decline.

If the textbook is talking...I would like to see this not head into a peak too quickly, a rally that would last a month or so would be ideal. 

Although, from experience....just like you're not guaranteed a tomorrow...you're not guaranteed a rally here either.  Because my gut has been telling me for days that something is already broken.

In closing...

Since we talked about the 50 crossing the 75, let’s talk about when the 50 crosses the 200...

"Within two weeks" after this takes place, you’ll look around...and ol’ TCG will simply. be. gone.

Why? Well, as you know...pig’s get slaughtered...and I’m a shark.


The CoinGuy


Exactly how many weeks are there between February 24th and October 13th?

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9 hours ago, Jimbo said:


Yes...if the Fed drops the RRP rate below the FFR then money will come flooding out into short term treasuries.

At least that is the theory.

Its a giant battery of potential treasury purchases.....

But a lot could go into stocks as well.....


They don't need to do anything with the rate. They can just reduce the size. 

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While I don't feel the "time" is appropriate for this chart series just yet...I do keep my promises.

Not to mention...this pattern takes a while to grasp.  The more time you have to comprehend what is actually taking place...I feel the more successful you'll be when it comes time to "pull the trigger".  

From this day forward...I will not let this topic rest.  I'll be keeping this on the front burner on a nice slow simmer.  I'll eke out a chart out here and there and then follow it up at the right "time" with a very strong conclusion.

So..to kick this off I'm going to start with an old chart of mine.   I developed this chart as we were heading into the peak at 325 in the ^HUI, although it is just another rendition from a much earlier chart that I have been following for several years.  The chart is nothing more than a comparison chart between Yamana Gold and the ^HUI GoldBug Index.

I've used just this chart to make 100% of my calls in the ^HUI since 2018.


Why? and How?

Well, as I alluded to in an earlier comment...the goldbugs have been trodding on rich soil for years now AND I do mean years.  I just don't think they realize how fertile the ground is under their feet.  Yet.  It is my intention as we go forward to start yanking on that curtain harder and harder until everyone gets a good eyeful as to what is hiding on the other side.

Today...is just a tug, but I assure you...it's a tug in the right direction.

After all...you know the old saying.  "You can't trade, what you can't SEE."

The above chart is nothing more than a clip of the right side of the "bottoming pattern" in the Yamana(YRI.to) chart during the 2002 to 2003 period. 

At the time, those who were bullish on gold and gold stocks were quite excited as we came out of the whole we'd dug ourselves into at the end of 2000.  I remember the ^HUI had finally bottomed at 35 or 36.  Then rallied just about through the first half of 2001.  Although...it soon flipped into a consolidation pattern and many of the new goldbugs were losing faith.

Just as we lost a few...the advance that came out that consolidation made many wealthy almost overnight.  It was there that many guys were hooked.  Goldbugs were becoming numerous. 

Now...during the next consolidation...the guys who came in late were getting shaken around because the peaks were higher, but the troughs...well, they were troughs alright.  A lot of guys couldn't take it.

That is where I introduced...this "bottoming pattern".  This pattern is the most bullish pattern I know.   If I was young again...I'd just be hunting for these and then hold on for dear life.  I've ridden enough of them to know.  It just doesn't get any better than this...

The first chart I'll post here is nothing more than a plain comparison chart.

This comparison is between Yamana's major low in 2002-2003 to the current Weekly Chart in the ^HUI.


And...I'd actually like you to take a copy of this chart in its naked form and save it for later comparison when you're hunting for your own vehicles.


I'm going to post the chart again and add 4 simple blue circles at the peaks in both issues.


The two blue circles in the chart are representing the two peaks that must be present for the pattern to be valid.  Study the formations between the two peaks carefully. 

Let's add three rules(with explanations).

1)  It doesn't matter which peak is higher.

The patterns can be left or right side dominant.

2)  The pattern doesn't have to match - completely and in some case.  Not at all. 

This might sound a little strange at first, but once you understand the pattern and start finding these all over the place...I think you'll get it.  I will mention...there are several known varieties(all will be covered).

When pattern matching...the validity will usually be higher if you have at least a right or left pattern match.  Although...in some issues.  There is a solid reason why the patterns don't match and you need to discover why.  Think alternation...

3) The ensuing decline from the right peak does NOT have to make a new low. 

Although...it usually does.  You really have to take each individual issue and "weigh it against itself" before coming to any conclusions.  If you can't discover how the issue operates.  Here is my own personal rule.  If it is NOT a leading issue in its industry(or hated by the establishment), expect a lower low.

You need to study this pattern between the peaks.  Every peak and valley.  As mentioned...there are several forms of this bottoming pattern.  Over time.  I will cover them all.  Not to mention...'alternating' patterns WITHIN the pattern.

Ok...now let's go back to the beginning where my analysis of the current advance(and decline) of the ^HUI was borne from.  We'll post the same chart again, but add the circles from the original chart.  This...is where my analysis of the ^HUI was derived from.  A simple chart from Yamana that is 20 years old. 


Then...I did exactly what I taught my prior students to do...I played the ^HUI against itself as demonstrated in "Can you BELIEVE it Now" from June 24, 2022.


There is nothing more potent than learning to "play an issue against itself" in any arsenal.  If you could put this one arrow in your quiver...you'd never need another one.

Think all of this over.  Don't rush yourself...give it some time.

Perhaps, after you've thought about this and studied for awhile you can really start to see the market through my eyes?

Take a look at the SLV again...


Here is another chart.  This time...CCJ.  this is another variety of the pattern, different outcome too.


Although, now you could begin to see why the insiders were buying platinum, yellowcake and copper.  Although, it would have been nice if they mentioned this to the retail guys before the shares exploded?

No worries...as you can see below, you get another shot. 

"This pattern once understood, will warn you of incoming super cycles".

And for those will keen skills of observation.  Yes...I AM teaching you to measure from the center to the outside.   Wait until I start adding time/price to the mix. 

Then it gets real fun...

One step at a time.  Patience in all things...

Best Regards,

The Nutty Ol' CoinGuy


Anyone remember the run in BHP?  Now...take another look at CCJ.  Can you SEE it?


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