To Uptrend, or Not to Uptrend, That is the Querstion 9/8/22

[DrStool]

As I travel around the north of la France this week and next, today Paris, tomorrow Brest, lest we remember and lest we forgets, yes turd day:

On 9/7/2022 at 10:48 AM, DrStool said:

...low is due now, suggesting an upswing for most of the day today. The cycle now ending hasn't been as weak as the two prior ones, so they might pop it through the downtrend. The key trendline will be around 3913 in the first half hour of NY regular trading. To really get things going on the upside, the ES would then need to clear 3920. That should give it enough pop to get to yesterday's triple top at 3960. And if they got through that, then a challenge of the high of the last cycle made last Friday at 4018.6 would be in order. 

Now that that's been dispensed with, we see that an uptrend has or has not been established, but that there's a 5 day cycle projection of 4000-4015, which suggests that one will be.  Mais à ce pointe, il y a beaucoups de canaux de trend qui descend aussi, a plus tard aujourd'hui. 

Vive la résistance!

Here's a 2 hour bar chart for pisspective. 

Now if they get through 4016, bears will have un gros probleme. Because such a breakout would have a conventional measured move target of 4140. 

Here's the usual hourly bar look.

You will note that the hourly oscillators have reached the level where they last turned lower. But they haven't turned. This is what you call a pregnant pause. The question is what pops out. The spawn of the devil? Or not. 

Ah oui, my fellow travelers, of such question is this life!

This is just the very short term stuff. For the big picture check out the posts below. 

• Gold Won’t Hold September 7, 2022
• Swing Trade Screens – 13 Picks, All Shorts, All Winners September 5, 2022
• Technical Analysis Confirms the Brutality of Liquidity September 4, 2022
• Withholding Tax Collections Collapsed in August But BLS Data Won’t Show It September 2, 2022 
• Warnings of August Liquidity Crash Come to Fruition – Here’s What to Do August 28, 2022
• Gold Miners Swing Picks August 26, 2022
• Has Rule Number One Been Repealed? August 18, 2022
• “As Good as It Gets” Was Good While It Lasted August 6, 2022
• Treasury Confirms Supply Tsunami We Expected – Will Obliterate Everything August 3, 2022
• Withholding Tax Collections Solid in July, But Here’s Why the Party is Over August 2, 2022
• The Bond Rally That Fooled The Majority And Didn’t Help Dealers July 27, 2022

If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! 

If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. 

[DrStool]

The latest photographic evidence of the stock proctologist's life in Y'er up. 

https://www.instagram.com/200daysineurope/

 

 

 

[Jimi]

75 bps from the ECB… in the face of Europe’s worst energy crisis in a half-century…

Here’s a simple political-economy equation:

Cold + Unemployed = Angry Protestor

Christmas & New Years should be a “riot” in European capitals this season….

[sandy beach]

Well the ECB announcement wasn't very exciting - 75 basis points - no base case recession. Bloomberg switched over to Jerome Powell debating someone from CATO. Powell is arguing that inflation is no longer linked to monetary aggregates as it was in Milton Friedman's time. Then states that the Fed did expand its balance sheet a lot in 2020 and "whatever" started inflation in 2021 "there is some debate" on what caused it... The CATO spokesperson, Peter Goettier, saying they don't support a non-rule based Fed with fiat power. Should they follow the Taylor rule or target nominal GDP or nominal income as a rule-based-system? Powell says the Fed never has followed the Taylor rule and pivots to "independence." Also Powell says doesn't see returning to "scarce reserves framework" because amount of reserves is so much higher now.

[MisFit Kid]

Anything you can do, I can do better........Both live at the same time........

[MisFit Kid]

 

[DrStool]

New York buyers are the dumbest, but money is money. 

[DrStool]

The naz sent uptrend remains ntac. 

[MisFit Kid]

and the 3-5 minute rip jobs higher win again....ring that bell

[DrStool]

But snot for long.

[MisFit Kid]

and tonight Kicks off the NFL

or as the song goes........

 

NFL, efilnikufesin NFL

NFL, efilnikufesin NFL

[DrStool]

4000 here we come. 

[DrStool]

4 hours ago, DrStool said:

Now that that's been dispensed with, we see that an uptrend has or has not been established, but that there's a 5 day cycle projection of 4000-4015, which suggests that one will be. 

 

[fxfox]

https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
 

many bears. Not good.

[DrStool]

In the never ending battle of news versus cycles, the arc of history is long but bends toward cycles.