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Monthly Digger - August, 2005


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NEM:

 

Daily chart. The only SPX component. If there's no institutional support here,

why will the the juniors head north?

 

It is only in the blowoff stage that the juniors outperform.

 

NEM remains the General. When it retreats, the soldiers follow-- and in a disorganized fashion. Every man for himself.

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So girls what do you think?? :mellow:

 

Well shuggah,

 

I went long a bunch of NEM after 2 PM but it looked increasingly dodgy. Bailed within a couple of cents and minutes before the smackdown. All looked like lower levels indicated. (I feel I was very lucky).

 

I think PMS stocks should "Just Say "No!"." ... no more daytripping, ... no more daydream believers. No more there and back again. No more Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds and definitely no more PAPER MOONS! :blink:

 

Thor:

 

That post didn't help me with trading stratedgy. Top 40, I can understand.

 

But I think I know who put the "Bomp" in the "Bomp she bomp, she bomp" and who put the "Ram" in the "Rama lama ding dong"

 

Hope that someday I can shake your hand.

 

Prorhetic that your reference to a "Paper Moon" also contains a reference to a "bubble"

 

http://lyrics.rare-lyrics.com/N/Natalie-Cole/Paper-Moon.html

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So girls what do you think?? :mellow:

 

Well shuggah,

 

I went long a bunch of NEM after 2 PM but it looked increasingly dodgy. Bailed within a couple of cents and minutes before the smackdown. All looked like lower levels indicated. (I feel I was very lucky).

 

I think PMS stocks should "Just Say "No!"." ... no more daytripping, ... no more daydream believers. No more there and back again. No more Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds and definitely no more PAPER MOONS! :blink:

 

Thor:

 

That post didn't help me with trading stratedgy. Top 40, I can understand.

 

But I think I know who put the "Bomp" in the "Bomp she bomp, she bomp" and who put the "Ram" in the "Rama lama ding dong"

 

Hope that someday I can shake your hand.

 

Prorhetic that your reference to a "Paper Moon" also contains a reference to a "bubble"

 

http://lyrics.rare-lyrics.com/N/Natalie-Cole/Paper-Moon.html

 

Ha! ... and thanks! Sometimes I just like to be obscure. Adds to my mystique don't you think? :P

 

Anyway, I've come in to be painfully frank this time. First of all, I have no idea whether we are going down big time or little time but I think we are going down some more. If little time then the 50% retracement of the May-Aug move at 192.5 down to the 190 level will probably be a good support zone with a quick hop back up above the downtrending BO line currently at 197.5 then needed. Stops probably below 185. If long now, then stops below 200 for sure.We look for all the world to be in Wave 4 of an impulsive 5 wave move down so the numbers for support just mentioned fit with that picture.

The 200 level (in retrospect) was a good place to bounce. First it was a big "number" and second it was the base of a channel as defined from joining the June and Aug highs (Momentum peaks) and channeling off the July low. If we could continue up would be a good sign. However, this little bounce is not meowing at all and is surely as dcb as they come. Longer term we are beginning to look like a large ugly fractal of the Feb Mar bounce with the dire dismal consequences of that being 165 going bye bye. Personally I can't see WHY that would happen but in this area my eyesight has never been that good.

 

Anyway....

 

LT (Daily) Hooey Timing most assuredly and happily in CASH.

 

ST (60 min) Hooey Timing LONG from the 201.3 open on Aug 26. MACD still POSITIVE with weak confirmation from 10/20 dEMA cross on Aug 29. A stop on this trade would be generated by a fall below 200 at this point.

 

One last point. Yesterday's little underfeel of the 10/20 dEMA confluence and late collapse has got to be viewed as one very seriously not bullish kind of thing.

 

There, I got thru the whole thing and never had to mention the really bearish COT position even once. <_<

 

About Paper Moons. Each time I tried to open the lyrics crashed my browser. I can't remember the song but I remember half watching the movie with the O'neils long long ago.

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DARK OPUS FOLLOWS:

 

If what I'm reading about NOLA (New Orleans) is even half true then this could be the first in a trend and that trend is the end of our great coastal cities. If the destruction of New Orleans is not just a one off due to a "One Hundred Year" event but the first in an unstoppable rush of the sea inland due to global warming then we all can consider that Mother Nature will have her way. After all New Orleans is on the frontline in Man's anti-nature battle. The battle that does not allow great rivers like the Mississippi to set its own course and fix it in place with levees. One now has to drive uphill to get to the river. Who can forget the massive flooding that inundating vast regions of the Mississippi and Missouri valleys and very nearly flooded St. Louis itself. In today's world of global warming NOLA was simply an accident waiting to happen. Lying below sea level in a hurricane prone delta with chemical plants and storage facilities. Great!

I feel for the people of the region. Big time! The suffering is on a massive scale. But it is time for us to take stock of where the world is and where it is headed and make individual and collective decisions accordingly. The best kinds of tragedies are the ones avoided. Like the Tsunami here. Few lives would have been lost and property could have been quickly rebuilt with just a little warning. However with the hurricane it is different. All knew what was coming and the smart and those with means made theie way to personal safety. Those that stayed behind (for whatever reason) took their chances. The loss in the case of Katrina is a tragedy (I believe) predominantly of material rather than physical costs. Costs in destruction of property and productive capacity rather than one of lives lost. Of course, people can rebuilt but should they? In the same spot? In the same way? I wonder. And what of the environmental costs? Is this just one more giant nail in the coffin Planet Earth?

Consider this! The big I mean really big Florida land bubble from the 20s ended when first prices spiralled out of control then went a bit wobbly and finally died at the hands of a major hurricane. Will our current bubble in coastal properties end likewise. A tsunami in the Indian, a hurricane in the gulf, massive flooding in Europe. A big Californian earthquake and/or a catastrophic volcanic eruption would no doubt be enough to complete the disaster set reminding man where he figures in the great cosmic scheme of things.

Anyway have your little piece of paradise and enjoy it while it lasts because for sure in time it will not.

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So girls what do you think?  :mellow:

 

Well shuggah,

 

I went long a bunch of NEM after 2 PM but it looked increasingly dodgy. Bailed within a couple of cents and minutes before the smackdown. All looked like lower levels indicated. (I feel I was very lucky).

 

I think PMS stocks should "Just Say "No!"." ... no more daytripping, ... no more daydream believers. No more there and back again. No more Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds and definitely no more PAPER MOONS! :blink:

 

Thor:

 

That post didn't help me with trading stratedgy. Top 40, I can understand.

 

But I think I know who put the "Bomp" in the "Bomp she bomp, she bomp" and who put the "Ram" in the "Rama lama ding dong"

 

Hope that someday I can shake your hand.

 

Prorhetic that your reference to a "Paper Moon" also contains a reference to a "bubble"

 

http://lyrics.rare-lyrics.com/N/Natalie-Cole/Paper-Moon.html

 

Ha! ... and thanks! Sometimes I just like to be obscure. Adds to my mystique don't you think? :P

 

Anyway, I've come in to be painfully frank this time. First of all, I have no idea whether we are going down big time or little time but I think we are going down some more. If little time then the 50% retracement of the May-Aug move at 192.5 down to the 190 level will probably be a good support zone with a quick hop back up above the downtrending BO line currently at 197.5 then needed. Stops probably below 185. If long now, then stops below 200 for sure.We look for all the world to be in Wave 4 of an impulsive 5 wave move down so the numbers for support just mentioned fit with that picture.

The 200 level (in retrospect) was a good place to bounce. First it was a big "number" and second it was the base of a channel as defined from joining the June and Aug highs (Momentum peaks) and channeling off the July low. If we could continue up would be a good sign. However, this little bounce is not meowing at all and is surely as dcb as they come. Longer term we are beginning to look like a large ugly fractal of the Feb Mar bounce with the dire dismal consequences of that being 165 going bye bye. Personally I can't see WHY that would happen but in this area my eyesight has never been that good.

 

Anyway....

 

LT (Daily) Hooey Timing most assuredly and happily in CASH.

 

ST (60 min) Hooey Timing LONG from the 201.3 open on Aug 26. MACD still POSITIVE with weak confirmation from 10/20 dEMA cross on Aug 29. A stop on this trade would be generated by a fall below 200 at this point.

 

One last point. Yesterday's little underfeel of the 10/20 dEMA confluence and late collapse has got to be viewed as one very seriously not bullish kind of thing.

 

There, I got thru the whole thing and never had to mention the really bearish COT position even once. <_<

 

About Paper Moons. Each time I tried to open the lyrics crashed my browser. I can't remember the song but I remember half watching the movie with the O'neils long long ago.

 

 

Thor with you posting I don't even have to look at a chart. Well done. :D

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Thank You Very Much tfh. Love your work ass well.

 

 

 

...on the other hand (the first hand being my above interpretation) one WOULD think that the US gubment intending to pony up say $200 billion to pay for storm damage while already broke and only way to get the money would for the Fed to print it and the US people to borrow it, would be inflationary and people would want to convert their uninflated $s into gold, silver and the mines that have it. Well, you would think! ... until you look ...

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Metals have no interest at all it seems.. so disappointing. This asset class is dead, until it's not. Yet anouther example for me to remember to NOT frontrun; it just doesn't pay. The big boys shake until the last minute, the time value of money and where they invest dictates being in the right place as long as possible and the future place Just In Time.

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Metals have no interest at all it seems..  so disappointing.  This asset class is dead, until it's not.  Yet anouther example for me to remember to  NOT frontrun; it just doesn't pay.    The big boys shake until the last minute, the time value of money and where they invest dictates being in the right place as long as possible and the future place Just In Time.

 

I believe you were probably talking to yourself there but I would just like to add ... you know, for the kids ... that not frontrunning is good advice. Wait for a decent signal and prepare to get stopped out fast in these situations. Later on when the profits are there and signals are more positive let the stops fall away allowing for more profits.

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Need I say it? We now have turned ST (60 mins) not-bullish on the Hooey. Mooing averages have crossed and accelerating down. Pennant broken down and 200 neck broken. MACD just hanging above a crossing but likely to go negative by next period.

NEM was a sell (short) on the gap down open. Short STOP is now $1 above that. As I remember NEM has a target (downside) of 36.50 but not looking at its chart so don't quote me. Actually just had a look NEM target $37.80 to $38.00. However, looking at the acc/dist it looks like such serious dist I would not be surprised to see the $34.xx lows fail.

I implore you please do not be tempted to bottom fish NEM in here except for a very hot trade. Above $39.75 (preferably $40) maybe but here no.

 

And if not NEM then why ... I see SWC is up a tad today. All those wrecked cars in NOLA?

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