bearvest Posted August 31, 2005 Report Share Posted August 31, 2005 Hulbert and Gold Sentiment: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?...teid=mktw&dist= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted August 31, 2005 Report Share Posted August 31, 2005 Thor what a complete shock seeing the new avatar. That your pooch? Well Mr. Wyckoff we do need to see a spring off 428 Gold now don't we? <{POST_SNAPBACK}> TFH... ya gotta change your avatar to Melissa... not sure who the babe is you got in glasses... anway.. after being punched and pounded and called a kook... I feel like a pooch, so Thor may have something there... check out Sinclair's stock TRE.... double whammy.. man, better grab some of that stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted August 31, 2005 Report Share Posted August 31, 2005 gold got sold off because funds did so... anyway silver has been looking bearish even though the big apex was consolidating... guess they decided it was time to do the same for gold Aden! where are you now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted August 31, 2005 Report Share Posted August 31, 2005 Thor.. are you reduced to just sniffing.... <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Ah, was that comment due to my avatar briefly becoming a dog? I've been trying to change it apparently (to me) without success. Let me know if you saw it change and I will try again later. Thanks! It seems to me that it is the PMS which is acting most dog-like, though. However, NEM made a most impressive gap filling moove and Hooey regains 200. Interestingly the Hooey bounced off the first fibo retracement level from the May-Aug rally. Curiouser and curiouser! <{POST_SNAPBACK}> U might like this. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Why does that chart of DJ precious metals look so much like NEM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearvest Posted August 31, 2005 Report Share Posted August 31, 2005 GOLD: I've been troubled by my inability to get a good count on Gold. Since the December highs, there was a clear impulse down. That sets the trend. True to form, all action since the February lows has been corrective and overlapping. What it looks like to me is a double zig-zag--a WXY formation. If this count is correct, we'll visit the 400 - 410 level. This count has feet of clay, however. The June/ July decline is counted as a b wave--but it sure looks like an impulse down as seen in the second chart. The rally off the July lows is clearly an impulse. The double zig-zag counts as a zig-zag W wave and an expanded flat in the Y wave (3-3-5---subject to the b looking more like a 5). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted August 31, 2005 Report Share Posted August 31, 2005 Hey, did this forum get reduced to two threads? wow... pretty soon we'll all be missing in action... gosh.. makes me wonder if we got 4 months of threads left in our lifespan.. to prove ourselves... December Gold... here we come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearvest Posted August 31, 2005 Report Share Posted August 31, 2005 Tiffany's: Too funny. And here's proof that I didn't make it up, but Tiffany's is sporting a "diamond top" pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearvest Posted August 31, 2005 Report Share Posted August 31, 2005 Hey, did this forum get reduced to two threads? wow... pretty soon we'll all be missing in action... gosh.. makes me wonder if we got 4 months of threads left in our lifespan.. to prove ourselves... December Gold... here we come <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Real simple. When a sector goes sideways for 1 and 3/4 years, it just ain't sexy. Kinda like the kisses you get from relatives at Thanksgiving or Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted August 31, 2005 Author Report Share Posted August 31, 2005 Okay Ike seems to be smokin' his stuff again and he's not alone. And he must be smoking it over at Gold Eagle. Current GE attitude, shared by Ike... Suctor falling ... Very Bullish Suctor rising ... Even More Bullish. Okay this is the classic sediment which usually leads to lower prices. Well it might and it might not, but I (unlikethe feargreed dude) feel no compunction to jump on board just because we've fallen to a certain fib number. Takes more than that to cause us to move the army. Like positive momentum, higher highs, you know tangible stuff. Stuff that smacks of a rally and not sideways or worse more slumping. I'm just going to say it now and get it over with ... COT ... Anyway, no matter what your take on the PMS suctor we all have to agree it is a trader's suctor more or less. It is far too volatile for buy and hold. It is no surprise that really LT charts are hard to construct because gold companies have a limited shelf life compared to their broad counterparts. The darlings of the 70s are names mosty unknown to us today. Holding Zow components from the mid 80s until today would have been a pointless exercise. No, about the longest cycle one could play with effect is the 8 year cycle. Now all of that ilk should now be in cash or maybe close to cash. There are a variety of ways to ajudge the turns in this LT measure. Are you a long term holder? Do you have an exit strategy? Of course there are those who feel the longer term bull to play is the 40 year cycle. That is get in and ride it to the moon. When people in the street are overheard touting gold miners it is time to exit. Okay well that might work and it did for Sinclair last time around but there has been a lot of water under the bridge since then and we could have made a lot of money by sluicing it. I guarantee you that on even the most basic timing model you could beat that type of buy and hold hands down. My studies show that it is the 2 month and 1 year cycles where the money is made and lost. Your timing should be tuned to catch the twists and turns of these not so perfectly cyclical cycles so as to catch the meat of the up moves and miss some of the pain of the downmoves. I do not believe that the COT will be a way to do this. However, if it should come down to a decision then the COT could be there to cast the deciding ballot. Getting in and out even 1 day better or worse can make 1 hell of a difference in this suctor. The COT does not work like ... commercials net way short = market tanks. But just as the prized fighter does not necessarily knock out his opponent in the first round it does not mean you should switch your bet. So if you wish to sit on your gold stocks then you must be prepared for them to fall to numbers so low you can contemplate them only in your nightmares. This has happened in the past and this will happen again. And by gold stocks I'm not talking about individual stocks but the suctor as a hole as measured by one of various indices or funds. And there is only one way to avoid this. Well 2 really. The second being to sell and never again own them. However, since you still harbour plans to own gold stocks you have but one course open to you and that is to have a strategy or to pay someone to have one for you (Yuck!) which allows you to trade all or partial positions. Okay well I have stated that it would take more than a touch of a fib number to get me to buy but it is a strategy. It has defined goals (retracements) and failure exit plans. For me it has too many flaws. - Too short term - Too ambiguous - Too prone to whopsaws - Too prone to missing out altogether - Too limiting ...but hey if it works for you and it makes you money then Whoopee! It is a predictive model. It says if we reach a certain level (one of many?) (how close?) (wait for a bounce?) (how far?) (when am I wrong?) we act. And if we don't reach that level and go in the opposite direction then what? Then you have models like SKIs which are non-predictive conditional models. ie If such and such a thing happens in such and such an order and some other thing doesn't happen then we act. However the major flaw in the SKIs model is quite obvious. The market can move a very long way without tripping a signal. That is dismal and unacceptable. The model is also unnecessarily complex. (Kind of like this poost.) My own model is also of this type NPCM (non-predictive conditional model). As is Mr. Hankys. I suppose all models have at least some conditional aspect. It's just a question of whether they have a predictive component. Cycle theory, Gann, Elliott, Delta etc all have strong predictive components. Dow theory for example has very little. Back in May within a day or 2 one side or other of the low I said something like I thought it was a good time to buy even though I saw no reason whatsoever to be long. Now it did not take long to get confirmation and a safer buying opportunity was at that time even though the market was higher. But that statement was made at a time of extremely soldout conditions when everyone except those few on Gold-Eagle and a handful of others were bearish. That can not be said about now. Thus I am not inclined to make any such statements and now will certainly wait for what I perceive to be confirmation. And I will be entering trades with a very short cord which I would gladly pull if things turn sour or lengthen if things go well. Remember there were several excellent places to buy on the way down to 165 including the venerable 200. Equally those waiting for 140 waited in vain. At least so far. So okay I grant you that buying around these levels has excellent risk reward scenario and considering the bounce and unbounce with the fib level just below one could buy here with a tight rein, a very tight rein. Then I look at some of my own stock collections and how bad they are doing. Then I look at bullish percent short term 5% (only RGLD) and I think no I can wait. Later, back to work! er, last bit. ST Hooey Timing, looking at the move from the July low to August high we are out of fibs. May find some support at 195-196 but 100+% looks likely. Thus 190-191 here we come. All systems accelerating down, nothing encouraging at all. Long Term, same story except different. Everything negative and accelerating down but we are sitting on the first fibbing retracement level from the May-Aug rally. If breached 2 pronged support around 196 level then 50% retracement at 192.5 and July low for support. In 2004 once the August rally started the 20 and 10 eEMA lines never came close to each other until they crossed on Dec 1 a few days after the peak. This year we have already crossed. I take this to mean that if we play out somewhat like last year the rally hasn't really begun yet and will likely start in earnest from somewhere between the May and July lows. If it ever does that is .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearvest Posted August 31, 2005 Report Share Posted August 31, 2005 Hey, Thor, Super post. HUI P&F, at present doesn't support the potentially bearish stance that we may take. But XAU says you're right on. How about Aretha Franklin's "Rescue Me". Oh, and by the way. When your picture is being taken, don't blink into the flash and try to smile a little more. And, quite frankly, you could probably ditch the Afro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted August 31, 2005 Author Report Share Posted August 31, 2005 Hey, Thor, Super post. HUI P&F, at present doesn't support the potentially bearish stance that we may take. But XAU says you're right on. How about Aretha Franklin's "Rescue Me". Oh, and by the way. When your picture is being taken, don't blink into the flash and try to smile a little more. And, quite frankly, you could probably ditch the Afro. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Ha ha! Good one, but it's not me. It's a picture of SKI taken on the day the USERX closed at 8.18 after he bailed at 8.00 against his own advice and system. I think I'll bring it out whenever we have confirmed downside action until we get confirmed upside. Besides I think it's funnier than the old sand clam I used to use. So smiling fish, LONG. Sadass dog, CASH. Oh and take a look at the picture again. No blinking there. Eyes wide open. Oh and thanks for the kudos. Sometimes I just start ranting without any real idea where I'm headed. Nevr really have used P&F. Some swear by them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traderfromhell Posted August 31, 2005 Report Share Posted August 31, 2005 Okay Ike seems to be smokin' his stuff again and he's not alone. And he must be smoking it over at Gold Eagle. Current GE attitude, shared by Ike... Suctor falling ... Very Bullish Suctor rising ... Even More Bullish. Okay this is the classic sediment which usually leads to lower prices. Well it might and it might not, but I (unlikethe feargreed dude) feel no compunction to jump on board just because we've fallen to a certain fib number. Takes more than that to cause us to move the army. Like positive momentum, higher highs, you know tangible stuff. Stuff that smacks of a rally and not sideways or worse more slumping. I'm just going to say it now and get it over with ... COT ... Anyway, no matter what your take on the PMS suctor we all have to agree it is a trader's suctor more or less. It is far too volatile for buy and hold. It is no surprise that really LT charts are hard to construct because gold companies have a limited shelf life compared to their broad counterparts. The darlings of the 70s are names mosty unknown to us today. Holding Zow components from the mid 80s until today would have been a pointless exercise. No, about the longest cycle one could play with effect is the 8 year cycle. Now all of that ilk should now be in cash or maybe close to cash. There are a variety of ways to ajudge the turns in this LT measure. Are you a long term holder? Do you have an exit strategy? Of course there are those who feel the longer term bull to play is the 40 year cycle. That is get in and ride it to the moon. When people in the street are overheard touting gold miners it is time to exit. Okay well that might work and it did for Sinclair last time around but there has been a lot of water under the bridge since then and we could have made a lot of money by sluicing it. I guarantee you that on even the most basic timing model you could beat that type of buy and hold hands down. My studies show that it is the 2 month and 1 year cycles where the money is made and lost. Your timing should be tuned to catch the twists and turns of these not so perfectly cyclical cycles so as to catch the meat of the up moves and miss some of the pain of the downmoves. I do not believe that the COT will be a way to do this. However, if it should come down to a decision then the COT could be there to cast the deciding ballot. Getting in and out even 1 day better or worse can make 1 hell of a difference in this suctor. The COT does not work like ... commercials net way short = market tanks. But just as the prized fighter does not necessarily knock out his opponent in the first round it does not mean you should switch your bet. So if you wish to sit on your gold stocks then you must be prepared for them to fall to numbers so low you can contemplate them only in your nightmares. This has happened in the past and this will happen again. And by gold stocks I'm not talking about individual stocks but the suctor as a hole as measured by one of various indices or funds. And there is only one way to avoid this. Well 2 really. The second being to sell and never again own them. However, since you still harbour plans to own gold stocks you have but one course open to you and that is to have a strategy or to pay someone to have one for you (Yuck!) which allows you to trade all or partial positions. Okay well I have stated that it would take more than a touch of a fib number to get me to buy but it is a strategy. It has defined goals (retracements) and failure exit plans. For me it has too many flaws. - Too short term - Too ambiguous - Too prone to whopsaws - Too prone to missing out altogether - Too limiting ...but hey if it works for you and it makes you money then Whoopee! It is a predictive model. It says if we reach a certain level (one of many?) (how close?) (wait for a bounce?) (how far?) (when am I wrong?) we act. And if we don't reach that level and go in the opposite direction then what? Then you have models like SKIs which are non-predictive conditional models. ie If such and such a thing happens in such and such an order and some other thing doesn't happen then we act. However the major flaw in the SKIs model is quite obvious. The market can move a very long way without tripping a signal. That is dismal and unacceptable. The model is also unnecessarily complex. (Kind of like this poost.) My own model is also of this type NPCM (non-predictive conditional model). As is Mr. Hankys. I suppose all models have at least some conditional aspect. It's just a question of whether they have a predictive component. Cycle theory, Gann, Elliott, Delta etc all have strong predictive components. Dow theory for example has very little. Back in May within a day or 2 one side or other of the low I said something like I thought it was a good time to buy even though I saw no reason whatsoever to be long. Now it did not take long to get confirmation and a safer buying opportunity was at that time even though the market was higher. But that statement was made at a time of extremely soldout conditions when everyone except those few on Gold-Eagle and a handful of others were bearish. That can not be said about now. Thus I am not inclined to make any such statements and now will certainly wait for what I perceive to be confirmation. And I will be entering trades with a very short cord which I would gladly pull if things turn sour or lengthen if things go well. Remember there were several excellent places to buy on the way down to 165 including the venerable 200. Equally those waiting for 140 waited in vain. At least so far. So okay I grant you that buying around these levels has excellent risk reward scenario and considering the bounce and unbounce with the fib level just below one could buy here with a tight rein, a very tight rein. Then I look at some of my own stock collections and how bad they are doing. Then I look at bullish percent short term 5% (only RGLD) and I think no I can wait. Later, back to work! er, last bit. ST Hooey Timing, looking at the move from the July low to August high we are out of fibs. May find some support at 195-196 but 100+% looks likely. Thus 190-191 here we come. All systems accelerating down, nothing encouraging at all. Long Term, same story except different. Everything negative and accelerating down but we are sitting on the first fibbing retracement level from the May-Aug rally. If breached 2 pronged support around 196 level then 50% retracement at 192.5 and July low for support. In 2004 once the August rally started the 20 and 10 eEMA lines never came close to each other until they crossed on Dec 1 a few days after the peak. This year we have already crossed. I take this to mean that if we play out somewhat like last year the rally hasn't really begun yet and will likely start in earnest from somewhere between the May and July lows. If it ever does that is .... <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Excellent. The between May and July lows target also happens to be the new point and figure target on some charts. For better or worse hopefully not too much poorer my model which I am sitting on put me 33% long the close yesterday. The trade is on a short leash as had all the recent scalps off the top have been. I think we will see some improvement of COT this week. The reaction off the old top at 450ish Gold was not surprising but I am still not liking the Shows of Weakness in GG and CDE of late. Reminds me a little of the January 15th kickoff to the downside. Depending on the strength of the lunch beverage I may or may not add on a break toward 195 HUI but I won't hold a close under that. The two biggest problems I see going forward are the Silver breakdown and the Gold-Silver Ratio. Tuesday's lows most likely get tested so I may if lucky enough sell a rally into 206 HUI and let the dust settle. Some cycle experts have been looking for a low right around here so unless fib supports are broken the long side should provide at least some gas money. Prayers and thoughts to the unfortunate souls in the Gulf Region. Good luck boyz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traderfromhell Posted August 31, 2005 Report Share Posted August 31, 2005 Point and figure support lies at Tuesday's low. 428 give or take a few cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted August 31, 2005 Report Share Posted August 31, 2005 Here's my December gold chart.... one reverse trendline and one channel.... first one to hold gets the prize http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1125488424.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted August 31, 2005 Report Share Posted August 31, 2005 December silver... I'm not sure closing the monthly below 6.80 is a positive.. ADEN! http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1125488827.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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