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Monthly Digger - August, 2005


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You know what I find ironic. The interpretations I read on the COT all seemed to suggest the positions on gold were very bearish and those on silver supportive. So what happens? Gold goes nowhere and silver gets dumped. Of course, the opposite of what was expected.

 

 

Makes one wonder about the usefulness of the data doesn't it? Now if we were going into a period where Silver's industrial demand were cooling one would expect Copper to be tanking as well right? I think this is the last shakeout before we ass launch. The stops on the mining positions are close enough to warrant aggressive positioning.

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You know what I find ironic. The interpretations I read on the COT all seemed to suggest the positions on gold were very bearish and those on silver supportive. So what happens? Gold goes nowhere and silver gets dumped. Of course, the opposite of what was expected.

 

 

Makes one wonder about the usefulness of the data doesn't it? Now if we were going into a period where Silver's industrial demand were cooling one would expect Copper to be tanking as well right? I think this is the last shakeout before we ass launch. The stops on the mining positions are close enough to warrant aggressive positioning.

 

You look a little different today? New glasses?

 

I agree about the stops. This is the place to buy. If we continue up it gets riskier and riskier to buy not safer. The thing to fear though is the death by a 1000 cuts as you buy, get stopped out then again and again at lower and lower levels. Still prefer my model approach of the poorer risk-reward trade but with upward trend confirmation by way of signals such as bullish reversal candles, mooing average crosses, RSI bullish reversals, MACD signal etc. Some one pointed out a Harami Candle (The Coin Guy?) earlier. But to me this is not enough in light of a BEARISH 10/20 dEMA cross on Friday.

 

Are you a non-American? Yes? Do you know you pay US taxes? What, never filed a return, you say? No need! All you have to do is go out and buy some US dollars or a trashury bond or US denominated assets and Bernspan's printing press will do the rest. Each increase in the moaney supply devalues the dollars you hold. They are then free to spend these newly printed dollars on whatever they like such as torturing Iraqis (sorry I meant terrorists) and such. Course you don't really even need to buy US dollars or assets as just about anything priced in US dollars will do. Oil for instance. Probably your only safe bet is to buy some ancient relics such as gold or silver. I know that these are denominated in US dollars but once bought and held the dollars have reached a dead end. By buying gold in your own small way you have revalued gold relative to dollars effectively devaluing dollars and making them less attractive to the next guy who is still holding (and paying tax). When "the others" wise up to the scam they may decide to do the same.

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It wasn't me on the Harami cross. I don't like them personally. Used too often to mark the middle of a trend, not a reversal, whether bullish or bearish, except only in the short term.

 

I'll pay attention when there in the middle of a downtrend though...good for a measurement tool if the right parameters are in place. Also good for marking weakness in momentum on an uptrend. Usually right before a short term pullback.

 

I use trendlines, swing points, momentum, trusty indicators and volumes for reversals. Not to mention, the psychology of the players involved...

 

 

 

Best,

 

TCG

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It wasn't me on the Harami cross.  I don't like them personally.  Used too often to mark the middle of a trend, not a reversal, whether bullish or bearish, except only in the short term. 

 

I'll pay attention when there in the middle of a downtrend though...good for a measurement tool if the right parameters are in place.  Also good for marking weakness in momentum on an uptrend.  Usually right before a short term pullback. 

 

I use trendlines, swing points, momentum, trusty indicators and volumes for reversals.  Not to mention, the psychology of the players involved...

 

 

 

Best,

 

TCG

 

I agree totally on the Harami. I only use good quality dojis and usually only at bottoms not tops. Although after that last top marking doji a couple of weeks ago, I may have to review that.

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HUI components:

 

I was unaware that BGO was dropped and EGO added.

 

Leaving aside EGO, I did some analysis of the HUI components.

 

Moving averages:

 

Only GG and GLG are above the 13 day m.a. Thus, there is short term overhead resistance.

 

As far as 50 day m.a's is concerned, again only GG and GLG are significantly above. IAG and KGC are somewhat above. FCX, MNG, and NEM are marginally above (less than 1%).

 

MACD:

 

Every HUI component has suffered a MACD crossover.

 

AEM, GG, GLG, IAG, KGC, MDG, and NEM haven't triggereed sell signals with the fast line falling below zero.

 

Stochastics:

 

With a bounce from steeply Dover Sole levels, GG, GFI, and IAG have buy signals. GLG has a weak buy.

 

The hedgers on the COT are heavy into gold. The big components in HUI are showing the best strength (absent NEM).

 

This has all the ingredients for a bull trap in an impulse down.

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Howdy,

Actually, I like this monthly thread business. Just think, everything you ever wanted in one location. Sounds like a retail outlet huh...lol

 

Had a trip up north just above the Canadian border and an unpleasant wait on the return trip through the border crossing.

 

By the way did Doc move back to Florida?

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So... tell me.. I thought Doc was moving permanently to Canada.

 

Oh yeah.. they didn't ask me if I was bringing any gold into Canada. Now they've lowered the bar... they even asked if I had mace on board.

 

On the return trip back the American border dude asks me where I'm heading for the night....lol...

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ok... NEM has one week to get below 39 and the supply to get absorbed with a close over 39...

 

ya think?  Am I too pessimistic?

 

anyway.... looks like it's working it's way into a little wedgy... consolidation

 

NEM:

 

Key overlaps will be 39.92---wave 1 on the hourly, and 38.68, wave iv of C.

post-1352-1125288536_thumb.png

post-1352-1125288550_thumb.png

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