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Stool Happens


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Good morning, everyone.


Hope you all had a very safe and enjoyable Thanksgiving without the intrusion af any market-ralated emotional angst.


Perhaps you remember what I wrote in at least one of my prior commentaries - that two of the very real occupational hazards of this game-in-common we all play are the risk of becoming a compulsive gambler and the risk of becoming dehumanized.


There were signs Wednesday afternoon of the latter. And I know from observation that there is a very positive correlation between the two.


One of the things that's important to know is that no system, no person - no matter how good - is perfect in this game.


And Doc is good. Very, very good. One of the best I've seen in the decades of my experience. And in the end we each must take responsibility for our own actions and conduct ourselves in such a way as to be able to cope successfully with the times that stool happens :angry:.


As I said in my late Wednesday afternoon post:


Folks, please remember that Doc is doing the best he can under very difficult circumstances. Remember what BARE has said a number of times - about the market wanting to devour both bulls and bears before this was over? Eventually the long term and secular term trends will reassert themselves and value will in fact out, hopefully sooner than later. Meanwhile it's important to do whatever you have to do in order to get through this period.


The current market insanity can not, will not go on indefinitely. It has an appointment with gravity (thanks again for the phrase, Greg!) which it is destined to keep. It's not Doc's fault that he's not batting a thousand in being able to forsee to what extent the inmates have temporarily taken over the asylum. Getting angry about it and lashing out at others over it amounts to throwing out the baby with the bathwater.


For over and above the analytical work done here this community that Doc created serves as a powerful support system (on all levels) for each one of us. A support system that can be the major defense against the twin devils I mentioned in the third paragraph. A support system that under stressful conditions such as now could become fragile and especially vulnerable to angry and unkind words. Something that not only must not be taken for granted but constantly nurtured.


As Doc said about three-quarters of an hour before I posted:


I would really hope that all of us are big enough and smart enough to think for ourselves, and manage our trading wisely. That means please, do not overleverage, and always use protection.


To which I would add if you find that you're repeatedly not getting it right no matter what you do then back off, at least for the time being, and go into Observational Mode. Don't paint yourself into a corner, either financially or emotionally. Always have a plan in place for those times when stool happens :angry:. For times like those are the only guarantee the market provides.


bdaycake.gif Wonmug, a member who joined us in June, celebrated his birthday yesterday. Happy Birthday, wonmug!


And lest I forget, Big Bear will not make his usual appearance at 12:45 PM today 'cause The Circus is over today at 1 PM. :)


So with that I wish you all a good trading day and a very safe and enjoyable weekend!

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Market Status (11/27/2002) :

As we mentioned in yesterday's Market Commentary, the market did move higher today. As the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes moved higher there was some resistive volume, but relatively it was not very much. The lower volume today could be due to traders taking time off for Thanksgiving. Even though we only had small VMA spikes to the upside, the market may move lower in the short-term before moving up, but we feel that it is more likely that the market will continue in it's current upward trend.

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re: Today's Anals


Just wanted to say thank you very much for the great work you share with us every morning and continously during the day. I can't speak for others, however, my own timing has improved many times over since I found this site. Of course your input is one of many I evaluate each time I make a trading decision.


Many firms on the street offer similiar but less insightful analysis for many times your modest price. I receive that material for free but gladly pay for your excellent analysis.


Please keep up the excellent work.




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With apologies to all you parrot lovers. :)


A man named Jon received a parrot as a gift.

The parrot had a bad attitude and an even worse

vocabulary. Every wordout of the bird's mouth was

rude, obnoxious and laced with profanity.

Jon tried and tried to change the bird's attitude

by consistently sayingonly polite words, playing

soft music and anything else he could think of to

"clean up" the bird's vocabulary.

Finally Jon was fed up and he yelled at the

parrot. The parrot yelled back. Jon shook the parrot

and the parrot got even angrier and more rude. Jon in

desperation, threw up his hands and grabbed the bird

and put him in the freezer.

For a few minutes the parrot squawked and kicked

and screamed. Then,suddenly there was total quiet,

not a peep was heard. Fearing that he hurt the

parrot, Jon quickly opened the door to the freezer.

The parrot calmly stepped out onto Jon's outstretched

arm and said "I believe I may have offended you

with my rude language and actions. I am sincerely

remorseful for any inappropriate transgressions. I fully

intend to do everything I can do to correct my rude and

unforgivable behavior."

Jon was stunned at the change in the bird's attitude. He

was about to ask the parrot why he had made such a

dramatic change in his behavior, but the bird

continued..."May I ask what the chicken did?"

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i seem to have missed some local insanity friday afternoon, just as well.


this is one of those days where you have to ask yourself, "why am i even watching this thing."


i can't think of anything that would happen today that would make me sell or buy.


i am going out for coffee with my wife, see you later in the morning.

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on the second chart ...


do we hit the red line before the madness stops?


This is encouraging but do we hit 0.50 on the blue chart here ?



This also brings to mind the nagging observation of how everyone keeps saying that we're climbing a wall of worry and that this rally will last becasue there is so much skepticism. Skepticism my ass.

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