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Heading for Home 9/15/23

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Today the market embarks for its destination, the where which we know not. I, on the other hand, am headed home after an amazing 4 months of travel across the Old World. From Paris to Warsaw to Budapest and Prague, Berlin, Copenhagen, and Oslo, I have seen a bunch of great capitals and cities and towns of all sizes. A total of 31 towns in all, not including brief stopovers like Cologne and Basel.

What a journey. 

But later this afternoon, shortly after the market opens in New York, I should be back home in Nice. Halleleujah! Shana Tova! Sell Rosh, Buy Yom. Actually, I hope not because I'm long up the wazoo, in violation of our religious Law of the Bearish People. May Lord Ursa forgive me, for I am a sinner! 

The stock market meanwhile has been on a journey to nowhere, but at least the swings have been big enough to be tradable. Had a nice payday yesterday as a result and hope to not give it all back today. 

The market gods aren't giving us many clues this morning. Yesterday's rally has paused. A 5 day cycle 4 day variant high is due this afternoon. A 5 day cycle projection of 4520-25 remains to be reached on the ES, 24 hour S&P futures. But a 4 day variant projection of 4515 has been. Either way, there's not much upside likely today. On the other hand, to get anything going on the downside would require an hourly close below 4505 for starters. Market Needs a Pop Now


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"Lennar’s Earnings Reveal Robust Demand for New Homes Home builder Lennar reported better-than-expected third-quarter results, demonstrating that demand for new homes remained strong through August even as mortgage interest rates stay above 7%. The lack of available existing home inventory is driving buyers to the new-house market.  Although revenue declined 2% from the third quarter last year, home deliveries rose 8% to 18,559, and new orders jumped 37% to 19,666. The average sales price for a home delivered in the quarter was $448,000, compared with $491,000 last year. Co-CEO Stuart Miller said the scant housing supply and pent-up demand combined for a strong sales environment. Lennar expects to deliver between 21,500 to 22,500 homes in the fourth quarter, with a gross margin between 24.4% to 24.6%. New listings ticked up 4% in August from July, to 350,000 homes listed for sale at a time when supply usually wanes, Zillow said. Luxury builder Toll Brothers said deposits in the first three weeks of August declined less than expected, while both physical and web traffic increased from July. The average 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage rose to 7.18% on Thursday, up from 7.12% last week, and 6.02% this time last year, according to Freddie Mac. Chief economist Sam Khater said inflation and strength in the economy are keeping mortgage rates elevated. What’s Next: Government housing starts and permits data come out Tuesday. FactSet consensus expects the seasonally adjusted annual housing-starts rate to fall to 1.42 million from July’s preliminary 1.45 million, and permits to decline to a 1.43 million annual rate, from 1.44 million in July."





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2 hours ago, DrStool said:

It's good to be home. It's shitty to see a good day's profit wiped out. 

But that's the mock it. I'll wait till the weekend to see if anything broke, or if the dealers were just shaking the trees. 

Gonna be interesting.

„Mixed emotions, buddy. Like Larry Wildman going off a cliff in my new Maserati.“


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