DrStool Posted August 16, 2023 Report Share Posted August 16, 2023 I just finished an update on the key banking indicators and other monetary indicators, in terms of what they tell us about the stock market trend. Very interesting! One Banking Indicator Is Flashing Bright Red for Stocks LEE ADLER 1 - LIQUIDITY TRADER- MONEY TRENDS AUGUST 16, 2023 The signal is coming from the ratio of xxxx xxxx to total bank deposits, as reported weekly in the Fed’s composite banking system data. That ratio is at an all-time record, tying the peak reached when the stock market topped out in December 2021. Non-subscribers, click here for access. Subscribers, click here to download the report. It’s only flashing red, not solid red. It means that we must stop, look, and listen for the next few weeks to see if this signal goes full red stop, or back to flashing yellow. Non-subscribers, click here for access. Other indicators similarly suggest caution. They’re not outright bearish for the big picture, but they’re in position to develop that way in the weeks ahead. By the same toke, they are also in position to break out and go higher. Non-subscribers, click here for access. Taken together, it means that the market is at a significant inflection point. The information coming from the banking data in the weeks ahead should give us a significant signal on the market’s intermediate term direction. Non-subscribers, click here for access. This report shows current charts so that you can see for yourself. I’ll track this data for you in the weeks ahead as we stay on the lookout for something big. Non-subscribers, click here for access. Subscribers, click here to download the report. KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! Meanwhile, the hourly chart of the ES 24 hour S&P futures looks like a failing bottom setup, with a 5 day cycle projection now pointing to 4410-15. There are so many downtrending spport lines and levels that they're making my head hurt. 4430, 4422, 4415 etc. But oh my, all that red. We know the dip buyers will appear somewhere. But where? I'm heading out to explore beautiful Antwerp again, the most interesting, beautiful, and European of big European cities that most Americans have never heard of. It's definitely worth a stop on your next European tour. I have fallen in love with the place and suspect that you will too. Belgium is a bilingual country, but the languages are extremely regional. Here in Antwerpen, everybody speaks Dutch. Don't even think of trying to speak French. 😁 So Tot ziens for now! For moron the markets, see: One Banking Indicator Is Flashing Bright Red for Stocks August 16, 2023 I Liked the Buys Better Than the Sells August 14, 2023 The Calm Before the Storm August 14, 2023 Gold Sets Up August 8, 2023 All We Need is a Few Good Shorts August 7, 2023 Under the Big Top August 7, 2023 More Supply is Just a Lie But Withholding Weakens August 4, 2023 Let the Scary Pictures On Primary Dealer Financing Do the Talking July 31, 2023 Correlations Don’t Matter Until They Do, Like Now July 23, 2023 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 16, 2023 Author Report Share Posted August 16, 2023 A new downtrend channel has formed and it's pointed toward 4395. That also looks like an updated 5 day cycle projection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted August 16, 2023 Report Share Posted August 16, 2023 form the report: "A bunch of dummkopfs" Love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted August 16, 2023 Report Share Posted August 16, 2023 Doc, have you been to Brügge (Bruges)? It is just 85 mins away by train from Antwerp and also more than worth a visit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 16, 2023 Author Report Share Posted August 16, 2023 Yes. I was there in 2017. Very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 16, 2023 Author Report Share Posted August 16, 2023 Bruges is strictly a tourist town. Antwerp is a real working city with great neighborhoods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 16, 2023 Author Report Share Posted August 16, 2023 Riding the waterbus, we are now stopping in Hoboken. That's Hoboken Belgium. By the way Bayonne is in France. So we have Hoboken and Bayonne. In Europe. Just like New Jersey. 😄😄😄 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted August 16, 2023 Report Share Posted August 16, 2023 1 minute ago, DrStool said: Riding the waterbus, we are now stopping in Hoboken. That's Hoboken Belgium. By the way Bayonne is in France. So we have Hoboken and Bayonne. In Europe. Just like New Jersey. 😄😄😄 If you look further you also gonna find The Hamptons there 😂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 16, 2023 Author Report Share Posted August 16, 2023 6 hours ago, DrStool said: A new downtrend channel has formed and it's pointed toward 4395. That also looks like an updated 5 day cycle projection. The channel widened, and the angle of the dangle is less sharp. The 5 day cycle projection is now 4410. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted August 16, 2023 Report Share Posted August 16, 2023 1 hour ago, DrStool said: The channel widened, and the angle of the dangle is less sharp. The 5 day cycle projection is now 4410. The hanging dangle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted August 16, 2023 Report Share Posted August 16, 2023 The contract rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage rose 7 basis points to 7.16% in the week ended Aug. 11, according to Mortgage Bankers Association data out Wednesday. The gauge of home-purchase applications slipped for a fifth-straight week to the second-lowest level since 1995. https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/us-mortgage-rate-climbs-7-125042869.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 16, 2023 Author Report Share Posted August 16, 2023 2 hours ago, DrStool said: The channel widened, and the angle of the dangle is less sharp. The 5 day cycle projection is now 4410. Woop, there it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 16, 2023 Author Report Share Posted August 16, 2023 22 minutes ago, SiP said: The contract rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage rose 7 basis points to 7.16% in the week ended Aug. 11, according to Mortgage Bankers Association data out Wednesday. The gauge of home-purchase applications slipped for a fifth-straight week to the second-lowest level since 1995. https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/us-mortgage-rate-climbs-7-125042869.html Remember just a few weeks ago how all the soofayers were saying that the housing market decline was over and I said, just like in 2007? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 16, 2023 Author Report Share Posted August 16, 2023 Get ready for the next downleg in a secular bear market in everything except consumption goods and services. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 16, 2023 Author Report Share Posted August 16, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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