Jump to content

Did the Hedge Funds Blow Up Yesterday? 7/28/23

Rate this topic

Recommended Posts


14 hours ago, fxfox said:

My guess: Due to the move in yields, hedgies blew up and had to sell stock and other assets to meet margin requirements

I bagan forecasting this two months ago when I became aware of the enormous, record hedge fund short position in the 10 year prior to the suspension of the debt ceiling in June. I warned that the markets would crack if yields started moving higher, as I concluded that they eventually would.  

It has taken a bit longer than I thought, but if we're disciplined, we stick to the TA and it will get us positioned correctly soon enough to profit from the next big move. 

In terms of the daily patterns, yesterday was a rogue wave that broke the recent cyclical pattern. Somebody dropped a big boulder in the pond, and I don't know whether the recent cycle pattern is strong enough to return to normal now or in a few days.

Watching the hourly ES 24 hour S&P futures, the key will be what happens as the market approaches wave resistance in the 4555-65 area in the pre market and after New York opens. If they clear it, the next target would be around 4580 this afternoon. 

If they roll over instead, then watch what happens at 4527.6. Breaking that on an hourly close would complete a top with a conventional measured move target of around 4450-55. Could get there fast. I don't think that that will happen yet. Market has been conditoned to BTFD, and that should hold for the first try. 


For moron the markets, see:

If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • DrStool changed the title to Did the Hedge Funds Blow Up Yesterday? 7/28/23
  • Replies 53
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

US stock bulls have grown so confident in the market that the cost of buying protection against a 5% dip in the next YEAR has fallen to what BofA strategist Ben Bowler is calling the ‘cheapest you likely have ever seen.’”


Link to comment
Share on other sites

Great thread!

We highlight the work of Prof. Hendrik Bessembinder who showed that nearly 60 percent of the stocks of U.S. public companies failed to earn returns in excess of Treasury bills, and that only 2 percent created more than 90 percent of the aggregate wealth, from 1926-2022.


Link to comment
Share on other sites

This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Tell a friend

    Love Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board? Tell a friend!
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
  • ×
    • Create New...