DrStool Posted July 28, 2023 Report Share Posted July 28, 2023 14 hours ago, fxfox said: My guess: Due to the move in yields, hedgies blew up and had to sell stock and other assets to meet margin requirements I bagan forecasting this two months ago when I became aware of the enormous, record hedge fund short position in the 10 year prior to the suspension of the debt ceiling in June. I warned that the markets would crack if yields started moving higher, as I concluded that they eventually would. It has taken a bit longer than I thought, but if we're disciplined, we stick to the TA and it will get us positioned correctly soon enough to profit from the next big move. In terms of the daily patterns, yesterday was a rogue wave that broke the recent cyclical pattern. Somebody dropped a big boulder in the pond, and I don't know whether the recent cycle pattern is strong enough to return to normal now or in a few days. Watching the hourly ES 24 hour S&P futures, the key will be what happens as the market approaches wave resistance in the 4555-65 area in the pre market and after New York opens. If they clear it, the next target would be around 4580 this afternoon. If they roll over instead, then watch what happens at 4527.6. Breaking that on an hourly close would complete a top with a conventional measured move target of around 4450-55. Could get there fast. I don't think that that will happen yet. Market has been conditoned to BTFD, and that should hold for the first try. For moron the markets, see: Gold Marks Time July 26, 2023 Full Load of Longs, But Adding 2 Shorts July 25, 2023 Market Looks Poised July 24, 2023 Correlations Don’t Matter Until They Do, Like Now July 23, 2023 Swing Picks Following Gold’s Yellow Brick Road July 18, 2023 Finally, A Few ShortsJuly 17, 2023 Young Bull Growing Stronger July 17, 2023 We’re Not There Yet July 16, 2023 Stocks Are Scraping the Ceiling July 9, 2023 Withholding Tax Rebound Sets Up a Bearish Fed Catch 22 July 6, 2023 Golden 13 Week Cycle Turn and Other Hopeful Signs 7/5/23 July 5, 2023 It’s Not Your Daddy’s Liquidity Anymore July 5, 2023 We Now Know What is Driving the Rally June 20, 2023 The Fed’s Slush Fund is Working June 16, 2023 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 28, 2023 Report Share Posted July 28, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 28, 2023 Report Share Posted July 28, 2023 Oil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 28, 2023 Report Share Posted July 28, 2023 Vix weekly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 28, 2023 Report Share Posted July 28, 2023 US stock bulls have grown so confident in the market that the cost of buying protection against a 5% dip in the next YEAR has fallen to what BofA strategist Ben Bowler is calling the ‘cheapest you likely have ever seen.’” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 28, 2023 Report Share Posted July 28, 2023 Traders "ALL-IN" buying Calls (chasing the rally). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 28, 2023 Report Share Posted July 28, 2023 I was called by a friend of mine. "when there will be correction becasue he want to go all in and waitin in bonds" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 28, 2023 Report Share Posted July 28, 2023 Looks like yeserday was just really smal accident. Everything looks ok again. Risk ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 28, 2023 Report Share Posted July 28, 2023 Great thread! We highlight the work of Prof. Hendrik Bessembinder who showed that nearly 60 percent of the stocks of U.S. public companies failed to earn returns in excess of Treasury bills, and that only 2 percent created more than 90 percent of the aggregate wealth, from 1926-2022. https://twitter.com/mjmauboussin/status/1683809805574582273?t=CubB5pSc46EXoFkZzAto8Q&s=19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 28, 2023 Report Share Posted July 28, 2023 TRY https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1684671285576511488?t=0muCYAawiAIsTZYbSRzWCg&s=19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 28, 2023 Report Share Posted July 28, 2023 if they make new high on SPX -> hahahahahahah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted July 28, 2023 Report Share Posted July 28, 2023 DAX closing right here on Monday would mean a new ALL TIME monthly closing high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted July 28, 2023 Report Share Posted July 28, 2023 Watch Chinese stocks like Nio, Alibaba etc. looks tournaroundish… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 28, 2023 Author Report Share Posted July 28, 2023 BTFD lives. Rothenboorg really is as charming as they say. Also packed with tourists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 28, 2023 Author Report Share Posted July 28, 2023 One thing I noticed is that in France the tourists are German. In Denmark, the tourists are German. In Germany the tourists are... German. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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