DrStool Posted July 27, 2023 Report Share Posted July 27, 2023 Today, I have arrived in Rothenburg ob der Tauber, supposedly the most beautiful village in Germany. We'll see. Meanwhile, the stock market has had another breakout. This time from a high base built over the past 5 days. It's another bottom pattern at a top, a reverse head and shoulders that will only be apparent in retrospect. It has a conventional measured move implication of 4620 on the ES 24 hour S&P futures. It has already blown out a 5 day cycle projection. There's a 2-3 day cycle projection of 4610-15. The 5 day cycle duration has shortened to a 4 day frequency in the last 2 waves. That would put the next expected high late Friday or early Monday. Upsidaisy. Market Looks Poised For moron the markets, see: Gold Marks Time July 26, 2023 Market Looks Poised July 24, 2023 Correlations Don’t Matter Until They Do, Like Now July 23, 2023 Swing Picks Following Gold’s Yellow Brick Road July 18, 2023 Finally, A Few ShortsJuly 17, 2023 Young Bull Growing Stronger July 17, 2023 We’re Not There Yet July 16, 2023 Stocks Are Scraping the Ceiling July 9, 2023 Withholding Tax Rebound Sets Up a Bearish Fed Catch 22 July 6, 2023 Golden 13 Week Cycle Turn and Other Hopeful Signs 7/5/23 July 5, 2023 It’s Not Your Daddy’s Liquidity Anymore July 5, 2023 We Now Know What is Driving the Rally June 20, 2023 The Fed’s Slush Fund is Working June 16, 2023 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 27, 2023 Report Share Posted July 27, 2023 Fed rates. Corpo -> no problem SMEs -> problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 27, 2023 Report Share Posted July 27, 2023 The case for bulish H2 2023. Retail is chasing stocks, probably will happen the same with IB clients. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 27, 2023 Author Report Share Posted July 27, 2023 16 hours ago, fxfox said: -burg, not -berg Noted and corrected in today's post! Thanks. 😊 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 27, 2023 Author Report Share Posted July 27, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 27, 2023 Report Share Posted July 27, 2023 So in short 1. Interest rate rise dont work. Big corpo is not feeling a pain in US 2. Consumer is doing great. Great earnings from coca cola, McDonnald, Pepsico etc 3. Industry even doing better - see Honeywell and several other names 4. Inflation is goin down 5. Jobless rate is still low 6. Fed is not forecasting recession Its like a obvious BTFD scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 27, 2023 Report Share Posted July 27, 2023 Take a look at KRE ETF after also Pac deal. Its doing great! Pretend anx extend for regional banks, same for big ones. Market flushed with liquidity. Vix low. high bulls reading. Hard to be bearish right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 27, 2023 Author Report Share Posted July 27, 2023 Naturally, I googled why some cities end in berg and others end in burg. Thing is, only Germans know which cities end in berg and which in burg I knew Hamburg was Hamburger because I eat hamburgers. But I wasn't sure about Nuremberg, Rothenburg, or Heidelberg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 27, 2023 Report Share Posted July 27, 2023 are there even any bearish real argument? I know 1. Low PMI/ISM from industries 2. yield curve structure 3. CRE market and banks? 4. China still slowing (+ housing problems) 5. Europe slowing (less market credit, less hedging, more feeling the pain) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 27, 2023 Report Share Posted July 27, 2023 ECB - 25 points, as predicted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 27, 2023 Report Share Posted July 27, 2023 TRADERS SEE ROUGHLY 40% CHANCE OF A 25 BP RATE INCREASE IN SEPTEMBER, DOWN FROM AROUND 44% BEFORE DECISION; SEE EURO ZONE DEPOSIT RATE PEAKING AT 3.92% IN DECEMBER, LITTLE CHANGED COMPARED TO BEFORE ECB DECISION: IRPR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 27, 2023 Report Share Posted July 27, 2023 "The developments since the last meeting support the expectation that inflation will drop further over the remainder of the year but will stay above target for an extended period." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 27, 2023 Report Share Posted July 27, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 27, 2023 Report Share Posted July 27, 2023 good gdp reading from US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 27, 2023 Report Share Posted July 27, 2023 We are in Bulls heaven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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