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Lower High - 7/25/23

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We merely need an hourly close below 4550 to create a lower high on the chart of the ES 24 S&P hour futures. On the other hand, a move above 4565 would have a conventional measured move implication of 4595.

Sigh. 

Right now, we appear to be in a 3 day cycle down phase that's going flat instead of down. The 5 day cycle high is due tomorrow. Hourly oscillators are muddling around in positive territory. They could roll over, but they haven't yet. So I give the benefit of the doubt to 4595 unless they take out 4550 this morning. 

Market Looks Poised

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I’m adding 2 shorts to the list, against 0 buys. With 19 longs already on the list, and the uptrend aging, I’m reluctant to add more at this point. Consequently, I did not review the buy signal charts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

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The screens produced 127 charts with multiple buy signals as of the last two trading days of the past week. There were 78 charts with a second sell signal. We have enough buys on the list, and with the age of the uptrend, I’m more willing to look at the short term sell signals. What I saw were a lot of sell signals within uptrends. I’m not a fan of trying to pick countertrend top swing trades. Too often the pullbacks are shallow, or don’t happen at all. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Two shorts hit stops last week. I’m closing out another one based on the opening price this morning. After these changes, there will now be 25 active picks on the list of which, 19 are buys, and 7 are shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Last week was a good rebound week for us after a bad start in the first week of the month.. Picks closed out last week, or currently open, show an average theoretical gain of 4.1% on an average holding period of 20 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

However, so as not to mislead, 12 picks closed out so far in July have all been losers, in honor of cut your losses and let your profits run. I’ll do a full accounting of the month next week. For now, including open positions, the month is a hair above break even. Non-subscribers click here for access.

7/10/23 June was solid, with 25 picks closed at an average theoretical gain of 9.7% on an average holding period of 36 calendar days. The numbers assume all cash, no leverage, no margin, no options. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I have adjusted or added stops on just a few of the picks. The rest I have left without stops because the price and indicator patterns are good, so I will let those ride, with the assumption of risk mitigation through diversification and small position sizes. Non-subscribers click here for access.

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Table in report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

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Good results from GE and 3M suggest that bottom in industrial PMI/ISM is probably behind us?

Poor results from Dow (chemicals), same as german Basf.


V. good results from Logitech which suggest covid bump is behind us (we bought tons of electronics i 2020 and we dot need it now so much).

Verizon - healthy results (sector went down due to WSJ articles about problems with toxic cables).

Spotify - bunch of news users but royalties bites for traffic

Airlines in general - good numbers

 

Whereever i look i dont see recession. Its rather iinflationary recession (on volume, not on price).

In that case oil and betting of come back of inflation would be a good deal?

Great thread from great guy on that matter was the one I copy here in last theead (paulo macro)

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1 hour ago, SiP said:

this is v famous guy from italy which talks now about liquidity

Lee have a look

https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/the-liquidity-illusion?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

 

I have a sneaking suspicion that we are going to see one of Lee's famous rants with how these FinTwit celebrities gain popularity but are not worth the time to listen to. Alf called for a bond rally in 2021/2022 and instead was completely wrong. He was looking for a crash in the stock market and guess what.  Lee makes one of the strongest cases why liquidity has a big part to play in these markets.

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20 minutes ago, potatohead said:

I have a sneaking suspicion that we are going to see one of Lee's famous rants with how these FinTwit celebrities gain popularity but are not worth the time to listen to. Alf called for a bond rally in 2021/2022 and instead was completely wrong. He was looking for a crash in the stock market and guess what.  Lee makes one of the strongest cases why liquidity has a big part to play in these markets.

Right. Alf was wrong ever since I noticed him, that was 2 years ago or so.

Doc got it right. He warned early in 2021. Following him one got at least out at the end of Jan 2022. He never called for a real crash in 2022. Not long after the Oct 2022 bottom he said that bears should be carefull, cause cycle stuff is not in their favour.

Doc got the impact and mechanism of the slush fund right, as one of the only ones. There are many FinTwit celebs who STILL don‘t got it.

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The problem with Alf and others is - they have like 400k followers. They gained  those followers based on dozens of free chart and promo, then they move to cross promotions etc

They use substack and newer tools etc

 

and to sume up, unfortunately marketing wins with knowledge (Lee) at this time.

Doc is great (fully agree) thats why Im pissed that Alf and others shine on twitter. I keep thinking about battle royale or something to make doc famous.

Maybe Doc should start recording podcast on apple podcast, spotify and start dissing them (like rapers wars) and start pushing toward them the content etc.

I would love to help doc on that matter.

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Man even a guy who just copy paste others charts are famous and make subscription based that!. how? they scroll tweeter, find charts and put weekly summarizes. Im amazed how many guys with no or small knowledge are famous and are also wrong. Based on the fake knowledge people lose money.

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