Jump to content

Beware the Ides of February 2/15/23

Recommended Posts


22 hours ago, fxfox said:

Second half of Feb is for SPX historically one of the worst of the whole year…

Yes, and do you know why? Because the largest volume of tax refunds are sent in February. That means the the US Treasury must borrow to cover that, so supply is heavy in February. We've seen that in the T-bill issuance calendar for this month. And the Treasury has set policy to continue to sell paper to the public while paying down internal IOUs. So here we are.  US Treasury Throws A Shocker to Reverse the Stock Market Outlook February 9, 2023 

They just announced another $23 billion in bill issuance for next week, and we've already had a gargantuan calendar this month.

Date Security Type Total Offering Total Publicly
Held Maturing
Net New Cash or
(Pay Down)
02/21/2023 Bills $171,000 $147,983 $23,017
02/16/2023 Bills $133,000 $98,994 $34,006
02/15/2023 Coupons $96,000 $67,118 $28,882
02/14/2023 Bills $171,000 $137,980 $33,020
02/09/2023 Bills $108,000 $99,009 $8,991
02/07/2023 Bills $171,000 $119,988 $51,012
02/02/2023 Bills $108,000 $98,997 $9,003

It's incredible that the stock market hasn't cracked. But the bond market has, and apparently that has freed up enough liquidity at the margin to drive some rotation into equities. But overall, the bond selloff extinguishes liquidity. For in depth coverage, analycysts and forecast see Liquidity Trader Money Trends

Meanwhile the Triangle pattern we have been watching on the hourly bars of the 24 hour ES, S&P fucutures has been expanding. Instead of breaking and running, they've been breaking and whipsawing, all on the upside. Here it is on the 2 hour bars for perspective. 

The new Dick Trickle Memorial Point is at 4115 a week from today at 1 PM. 


Meanwhile, on the hourly chart, we see incoherence. Overthrows. Whipsaws. Triangles within triangles. But most of the trading has been in the upper half of the largest triangle. Does that suggest upside breakout? I would think so, but really I have no effing clue. We don't know, and neither do they. 

I rather suspect that this will compress and head for the Dick Trickle Memorial Point. If there's gonna be a downside break, it should come today. The second peak of that regular 4 day cycle that's been around for a month now, is due now. That means the rest of the day today should be weak. If not, it's a new bawl game. 

Right now, 7:15 AM in New Yak, we're witnessing a surge to the top of a mini triangle within a triangle within a triangle. 4130 is the upside limit this hour. 4115 is the downside. The next pre Dick Trickle Point fartcall is at 4121 at 9 AM ET. If they break to the upside before that, look for 4145 later this morning. If they break 4115, then the target would be, I dunno, maybe 4094, or the biggie 4075. 


Ciao for now!

For moron the markets, see:

If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me!

If  you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder 


Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 32
  • Created
  • Last Reply
1 minute ago, SiP said:

I'm in Funchal, Madeira for next three weeks so I will be light on posting.

Enjoying the life with family.

I had never heard of Funchal, Madeira before, I know, a typical American.  I did a google search and the place looks beautiful.

Three weeks sounds wonderful, enjoy the time with your family.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Madeira is a Portugal Island, the place where v. famous soccer/football player was born - Ronaldo:)

Its full of mountians so I plan to hike/trekking a lot.


The typical place for Europeans to go during the winter brake are Canary Islands (500km south from Madeira) like Tenerife where the one of the best in the world water park or zoo parks are located (loro park).

If you want to have 20. celsius degree (like chiller summer) you come here since even in Nice/south of spain or Portugal/Algarve where its colder.

all the best!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, potatohead said:

Austan Goolsbee is being considered to be named Vice-Chair of the federal reserve....

Seriously, where do they find these people with such odd names that coincide with the fiendish nature of the Fed...

He's been around since the Obama admin. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites


This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Tell a friend

    Love Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board? Tell a friend!
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
  • ×
    • Create New...