DrStool Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 22 hours ago, fxfox said: Second half of Feb is for SPX historically one of the worst of the whole year… Yes, and do you know why? Because the largest volume of tax refunds are sent in February. That means the the US Treasury must borrow to cover that, so supply is heavy in February. We've seen that in the T-bill issuance calendar for this month. And the Treasury has set policy to continue to sell paper to the public while paying down internal IOUs. So here we are. US Treasury Throws A Shocker to Reverse the Stock Market Outlook February 9, 2023 They just announced another $23 billion in bill issuance for next week, and we've already had a gargantuan calendar this month. Date Security Type Total Offering Total Publicly Held Maturing Net New Cash or (Pay Down) 02/21/2023 Bills $171,000 $147,983 $23,017 02/16/2023 Bills $133,000 $98,994 $34,006 02/15/2023 Coupons $96,000 $67,118 $28,882 02/14/2023 Bills $171,000 $137,980 $33,020 02/09/2023 Bills $108,000 $99,009 $8,991 02/07/2023 Bills $171,000 $119,988 $51,012 02/02/2023 Bills $108,000 $98,997 $9,003 It's incredible that the stock market hasn't cracked. But the bond market has, and apparently that has freed up enough liquidity at the margin to drive some rotation into equities. But overall, the bond selloff extinguishes liquidity. For in depth coverage, analycysts and forecast see Liquidity Trader Money Trends Meanwhile the Triangle pattern we have been watching on the hourly bars of the 24 hour ES, S&P fucutures has been expanding. Instead of breaking and running, they've been breaking and whipsawing, all on the upside. Here it is on the 2 hour bars for perspective. The new Dick Trickle Memorial Point is at 4115 a week from today at 1 PM. Meanwhile, on the hourly chart, we see incoherence. Overthrows. Whipsaws. Triangles within triangles. But most of the trading has been in the upper half of the largest triangle. Does that suggest upside breakout? I would think so, but really I have no effing clue. We don't know, and neither do they. I rather suspect that this will compress and head for the Dick Trickle Memorial Point. If there's gonna be a downside break, it should come today. The second peak of that regular 4 day cycle that's been around for a month now, is due now. That means the rest of the day today should be weak. If not, it's a new bawl game. Right now, 7:15 AM in New Yak, we're witnessing a surge to the top of a mini triangle within a triangle within a triangle. 4130 is the upside limit this hour. 4115 is the downside. The next pre Dick Trickle Point fartcall is at 4121 at 9 AM ET. If they break to the upside before that, look for 4145 later this morning. If they break 4115, then the target would be, I dunno, maybe 4094, or the biggie 4075. Ciao for now! For moron the markets, see: One Gold Indicator Needs to Whipsaw or Will Signal a Secular Top February 14, 2023 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Meat Grinder Prevails February 13, 2023 How Bears Could Take Charge This Week February 13, 2023 US Treasury Throws A Shocker to Reverse the Stock Market Outlook February 9, 2023 Composite Liquidity Should Be Bearish, Here’s Why It’s Not Right Now January 26, 2023 Withholding Taxes Fell Sharply in January February 3, 2023 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 15, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 The impact of the Treasury supply is best seen in the T-bill market and bond market. The 13 week bill is up 13 BP since the FOMC. The 10 year yield is up 40 BP this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 15, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 Headed out to Carnaval. A toot a lore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 15, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 4 hours ago, DrStool said: The next pre Dick Trickle Point fartcall is at 4121 at 9 AM ET. I got confused about the time. Should be 3 PM ET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 15, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 Irrelevant. Just broke out topside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 15, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 4 hours ago, DrStool said: If they break to the upside before that, look for 4145 later this morning. That Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WTF Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 TCG: HUI Key @ 235 - Broken, but he is a show me type. Currently trading at 226. Will watch the close and see if we get the important follow through tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 Austan Goolsbee is being considered to be named Vice-Chair of the federal reserve.... Seriously, where do they find these people with such odd names that coincide with the fiendish nature of the Fed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 Gold goes down the toilet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 I'm in Funchal, Madeira for next three weeks so I will be light on posting. Enjoying the life with family. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WTF Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 1 minute ago, SiP said: I'm in Funchal, Madeira for next three weeks so I will be light on posting. Enjoying the life with family. I had never heard of Funchal, Madeira before, I know, a typical American. I did a google search and the place looks beautiful. Three weeks sounds wonderful, enjoy the time with your family. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WTF Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 Round tripped my TSLA short, back to where I started, but I am patient. The volume of the options on TSLA is crazy, gamma squeeze in progress, I can wait, if $230 hit will put on another small block of shorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 Madeira is a Portugal Island, the place where v. famous soccer/football player was born - Ronaldo:) Its full of mountians so I plan to hike/trekking a lot. The typical place for Europeans to go during the winter brake are Canary Islands (500km south from Madeira) like Tenerife where the one of the best in the world water park or zoo parks are located (loro park). If you want to have 20. celsius degree (like chiller summer) you come here since even in Nice/south of spain or Portugal/Algarve where its colder. all the best! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 15, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 2 hours ago, potatohead said: Austan Goolsbee is being considered to be named Vice-Chair of the federal reserve.... Seriously, where do they find these people with such odd names that coincide with the fiendish nature of the Fed... He's been around since the Obama admin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 15, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 2 hours ago, SiP said: I'm in Funchal, Madeira for next three weeks so I will be light on posting. Enjoying the life with family. Out in the A sores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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