Jimbo

FOR EACH ACTION AN EQUAL AND OPPOSITE REACTION The first action...Warsh playing the joker card of non intervention...no more QE for now. The reaction...wall street not buying and repoing treasuries and leveraging up to support the bond market. Wall street wants to see the return of some decent qe and cheap liquidity from the Fed before it steps in to leverage up and own treasuries It's not interested in being the bond bagholder for now.

BALANCING THE BUDGET The three ways governments balance their budgets 1/ Real balance where income equals expenditure. 2/ Hard default where the accumulated defecit is simply not paid back. 3/ Soft default...money printing...inflation...the current and preferred method where the inflation tax is used to cover the defecit. This is where they pretend to pay back their debts. Warsh by playing the non intervention card is pretending to not do 3. But non intervention leads directly to 2. The only way to avoid 2 under non intervention is to do 1. Which the US government refuses to do and is basically politically impossible. Can't see that happening. So reversion to 3. becomes the high probability play.

THE TEST Warsh is playing the non-interventionist card at the moment But wait for the crisis... Thats the real test.... And then the non intervention card will be...... Disposable. In the great monetary poker game that the FED plays with the market.

Re gold I think it will bottom somewhere in the 3000s Bitcoin.... fundamentaly worthless. Gold had 6 years of price gain in one year in 2025. Due to central bank buying and all the quick money crowd jumping on board. This created the classic parabola chart pattern. The quick money crowd are now learning a very useful lesson on chasing late stage speculation and chasing parabolic price movements. The asset has just gotten very ahead of itself in price. Hence the short term bear reaction down to longer term price support levels. The psycology drives the charts. It's still in a long term bull market..... The short term greed that turned to fear just caused the correction. The central banks will resume buying at lower levels providing support. Remember gold was $20 an ounce before the us went off the gold standard in 1931. It's been in a long term bull market ever since. And will be so as long as the fiat system continues to exist.

Re gold I think it will bottom somewhere in the 3000s Bitcoin.... fundamentaly worthless.

Thoughts In an asset landscape dominated by ponzi values... Phsycology becomes the dominant determinator of prices. In an asset landscape dominated by real values...... Value becomes the dominant determinator of prices. It's very important to know in which landscape frame your assets exist. We are well within the ponzi values landscape at the moment.

WTRE I don't really like the word crash I prefer the more accurate term "Wealth transfer recognition event" It's when prices suddenly adjust downwards to real values. The value was transferred long ago over years and months. It's only when the price recognises this fact that it adjusts suddenly and accordingly. The time gap between value destruction and market recognition is elongated deliberately by injections of central bank liquidity. It's what allows the coyote to walk on air for so long. Gold has been signalling this for the past couple of years.

It's the box stupid.... When applying schrodinger cat analogies to financial markets people wrongly focus on the cat... When they need to focus on the box... It's the box that creates the information asymmetry.... The outside of the box represents individual and market reality. What's inside the box represents actual real reality. What separates them is the box. I.e. the box allows belief vs reality arbitrage. In this way the future and future information acts as a "box" for asset prices. It represents known unknowns and unknown unknowns. When future information becomes past information then a door is opened and the realities to an extent merge.

WARSH ADVISORs That's just Fed Tea leaf reading... When the crap hits the fan And Trumpys on the phone screaming for a bailout. Warsh will become the hero Fed chair..... And it's "whatever it takes" time. (Look what happened to Hoover because he wouldn't print.....only one term...look what happened to Roosevelt because he would....elected 4 times).

Quick FED quiz:The real dual mandate Does A/ The Fed exist to fight inflation and unemployment. OR B/ Does it exist to destroy the value of the dollar and make gold go up and up and up. Hint....the correct answer is B.

To end the stock bull Would need a big down day Say over 10 per cent Something that wipes out a lot of leverage And causes real damage. Like the days crypto occasionally gets

VALUE SHELTERS AND PONZI VALUES There are ponzi values everywhere in asset markets. They will get burned away by reality. However this makes value shelters hard to find. Like...the RRP....remember that.... That was the covid value shelter created by the Fed.... So all the hedge funds could shelter there when the FED stopped the covid money printing .... Worked a treat. Even gold has gotten ahead of itself and needs a short term correction. Gold was the great bond hedge The great value shelter.... Till it got overvalued. Cash is always an alternative.. Just ask uncle warren he has 400b pile.

THE ONE DECISION ETF SPXL.....27% return per annum since being founded At absolutely the perfect time in November 2008..... And the FED has had its back ever since.... It has ridden the FED's tsunami of money creation to great heights As has gold and silver and bitcoin. The FED has been santa claus every day to SPXL. But one day it will be the big bad wolf.... Only kidding.....not going to happen.

WHICH WAY WARSH Warsh will have jump towards more QE soon. Or we will be watching "Monetary maduro 2.0 ...warsh the sequel" At a white house near you.

BURNS VS VOLKER Will Warsh go full Burns. Or full Volker Or just half Burns.... Like...print boy jay