Jimbo

Re gold I think it will bottom somewhere in the 3000s Bitcoin.... fundamentaly worthless.

Thoughts In an asset landscape dominated by ponzi values... Phsycology becomes the dominant determinator of prices. In an asset landscape dominated by real values...... Value becomes the dominant determinator of prices. It's very important to know in which landscape frame your assets exist. We are well within the ponzi values landscape at the moment.

WTRE I don't really like the word crash I prefer the more accurate term "Wealth transfer recognition event" It's when prices suddenly adjust downwards to real values. The value was transferred long ago over years and months. It's only when the price recognises this fact that it adjusts suddenly and accordingly. The time gap between value destruction and market recognition is elongated deliberately by injections of central bank liquidity. It's what allows the coyote to walk on air for so long. Gold has been signalling this for the past couple of years.

It's the box stupid.... When applying schrodinger cat analogies to financial markets people wrongly focus on the cat... When they need to focus on the box... It's the box that creates the information asymmetry.... The outside of the box represents individual and market reality. What's inside the box represents actual real reality. What separates them is the box. I.e. the box allows belief vs reality arbitrage. In this way the future and future information acts as a "box" for asset prices. It represents known unknowns and unknown unknowns. When future information becomes past information then a door is opened and the realities to an extent merge.

WARSH ADVISORs That's just Fed Tea leaf reading... When the crap hits the fan And Trumpys on the phone screaming for a bailout. Warsh will become the hero Fed chair..... And it's "whatever it takes" time. (Look what happened to Hoover because he wouldn't print.....only one term...look what happened to Roosevelt because he would....elected 4 times).

Quick FED quiz:The real dual mandate Does A/ The Fed exist to fight inflation and unemployment. OR B/ Does it exist to destroy the value of the dollar and make gold go up and up and up. Hint....the correct answer is B.

To end the stock bull Would need a big down day Say over 10 per cent Something that wipes out a lot of leverage And causes real damage. Like the days crypto occasionally gets

VALUE SHELTERS AND PONZI VALUES There are ponzi values everywhere in asset markets. They will get burned away by reality. However this makes value shelters hard to find. Like...the RRP....remember that.... That was the covid value shelter created by the Fed.... So all the hedge funds could shelter there when the FED stopped the covid money printing .... Worked a treat. Even gold has gotten ahead of itself and needs a short term correction. Gold was the great bond hedge The great value shelter.... Till it got overvalued. Cash is always an alternative.. Just ask uncle warren he has 400b pile.

THE ONE DECISION ETF SPXL.....27% return per annum since being founded At absolutely the perfect time in November 2008..... And the FED has had its back ever since.... It has ridden the FED's tsunami of money creation to great heights As has gold and silver and bitcoin. The FED has been santa claus every day to SPXL. But one day it will be the big bad wolf.... Only kidding.....not going to happen.

WHICH WAY WARSH Warsh will have jump towards more QE soon. Or we will be watching "Monetary maduro 2.0 ...warsh the sequel" At a white house near you.

BURNS VS VOLKER Will Warsh go full Burns. Or full Volker Or just half Burns.... Like...print boy jay

WHEN TWO PARABOLAS COLLIDE The Fed is a parabola creation machine. It has created parabolas for the US dollar and bonds. Downward parabolas. It has created parabolas for real assets like gold and silver. Upward parabolas.

THE GREAT REMONETISATION TRADE The reason gold and silver has done so well over the past few years is the remonetisation trade. Faith in the US dollar as a store of value has been lost.... Entirely due to the actions of the FED. Which has acted as the great enabler of US fiscal profligacy. The FED through QE has consistently destroyed the value of the dollar. The smart money have dumped US dollar assets and bought gold and silver as a better store of value. Gold and silver prices are currently "paused".... Waiting to get the true measure of Warsh. Either Warsh restores value to the dollar... Which means stoping QE... Which requires downward recalibration of real asset prices. Which in the short term requires higher rates..... Or he doesn't.....

THE JOKER CARD Trumpy has played the joker card with Warsh. You can't have lower short term rates with QT under the current fiscal setting. You can have higher short term rates. You can have lower stock prices. But lower short term rates.... That does not compute. If you want to see what Warsh will really do.... See where the smart money is positioned in the treasuries futures markets.

More qe Warsh will have to come to the party with a lot more qe if he wants to keep the yeild curve under control. Otherwise it's more long bond destruction. I'm sure Trumpy is having a chat with him right now.