LeeWhee Posted August 27, 2005 Report Share Posted August 27, 2005 Negotiations on a $2 million shopping center loan today were intense..... Whatever weakness that is occurring in stocks recently hasn't stopped the banks from "reaching" for riskier deals. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Yes, the belief seems to be that stocks may not go anywhere but RE is going to the moon and then to the next solar system, so that's the place to be. But if it doesn't, all the banks are going to be up a creek. What will they do with all this overpriced and unsellable residential and commercial real estate, when it comes back back to them because people ca no longer make their mortgage/loan/refi payments? <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Not only that...but what happens when those AAA rated mortgage backs starts losing value as ratings decline - due to the above statement. Governments, banks, insurance companies and pension funds worldwide are going to be feeling a fair amount of financial pain in a syncronistic manner. One could suppose that some parties have this risk hedged. But, if the moves are extreme, counter parties are going to start blowing up setting off a daisy-chain from hell event. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> The fraudsters are having a field day in RE right now. Here's a WaPo story about an outfit from Mesquite, NV (nr Lost Wages) that will verify employment or proof of assets in mortgage transactions...for a fee. Need a million-dollar mortgage but have no job? No problem. Just call Morgan Sheridan in Mesquite and they'll lie for you for $500. Need $100K in the bank to qualify for a big mortgage? No problem. Morgan Sheridan will prepare fake paperwork and charge you 5% of whatever amount you need to invent. Turns out Morgan Sheridan (http://www.morgansheridan.com/) is not a full-service financial firm but a guy with a PO Box and a VOIP phone connection out in the Nevada desert. Apparently they were using accounts with Wachovia in Virginia to manage this scam. A spokesperson for Watch-Over-Ya says they are "investigating the situation." http://www.startribune.com/stories/535/5577871.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
An Ant Posted August 27, 2005 Report Share Posted August 27, 2005 So we have a very big turn date coming up this week, on August 30th to be precise. Given the fact that the INDU is down -3.58%, SPX -0.56% and the NDX -3.84% YTD, it could very well be possible that the upcoming turn could be UP?? It appears that this turn will stay in effect through the end of year. Since the early part of 2005 through today, the Bradley has shown a general uptrend and hence the markets are actually down YTD. With a major inversion setup on Tuesday, could the inversion cause a positive upturn for the markets? To be honest, I am completely neutral on what might happen and I am planning on entering the trade depending on what actualy unfolds. Your thoughts??? <{POST_SNAPBACK}> I don't remember where I read it but Bradely dates could also be acceleration points Housing boom is an imbalance: Greenspan By Greg Robb, MarketWatch Last Update: 12:30 PM ET Aug. 26, 2005 JACKSON HOLE, Wyo. (MarketWatch) -- In his sharpest warning to date about rising home prices, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the housing boom is an economic imbalance that could end badly. In his final appearance at the high-profile policy conference at the Jackson Hole resort, Greenspan said high home prices are partly due to the low risk premiums demanded by investors, which have kept interest rates low.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeeWhee Posted August 27, 2005 Report Share Posted August 27, 2005 Signs o' the times: Here's a pic from the OC last week...the whole block seems to be for sale...maybe you can get a discount if you buy in bulk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted August 27, 2005 Report Share Posted August 27, 2005 K-Wave, the cyan line is EMA 500 and the magenta one is EMA 900, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted August 27, 2005 Report Share Posted August 27, 2005 For what it's worth, an article about Iran's soon to open oil bourse. http://atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/GH26Dj01.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Wave Rider Posted August 27, 2005 Report Share Posted August 27, 2005 K-Wave, the cyan line is EMA 500 and the magenta one is EMA 900, correct? <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Ja Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted August 27, 2005 Report Share Posted August 27, 2005 Yes, appreciate the PMs analysis.. ; just whisper please.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metamucil Posted August 27, 2005 Report Share Posted August 27, 2005 Crude headed into wave 5 up on the monthly; target 90-100. Should be ugly. The inverted hs in 2003 was very clear that the fit was gonna hit the shan. This will take the gold:crude ratio to extreme all-time lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted August 27, 2005 Report Share Posted August 27, 2005 "Oil .. Wave 5 up" ?? Have you seen how some Alternative Energy stocks have moved the last month or two ? If $90 -$100 Oil comes, they'll really pop. Oil sands too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sasquatch Posted August 27, 2005 Report Share Posted August 27, 2005 Looks like the Bears are finally brutalized, so in the interest of equal Bear Rights, I hereby nominate this Fannie Yahooligan as Poster of the Week - Yearning for a Delfationary Collapse by: dude_of_pain6 (37/M) 08/27/05 03:51 pm Msg: 136577 of 136578 I have been denied my economic right to a catastrophic deflationary depression. Who does the govt think they are to go against Natural Law and persist in this never-ending supply of fiat currency and debt building? Growth is now a dirty word in my vocabulary. I yearn for a long period of contraction and lower prices, of hard times complete with back to basics values. We NEED desperation to envigor our creative abilities. We NEED hardship to develop real human values. So I hope the Fed socks it to us with a 100 basis point rate increase as he lets the exit door kick him in the ass! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob_Boberson Posted August 27, 2005 Report Share Posted August 27, 2005 This is certainly a relief From today's Boston Globe The number of homes sitting unsold across Massachusetts has risen sharply over the past year, whether newly constructed units in downtown Boston or suburban houses from Weymouth to Wayland. This buildup of homes statewide reached 22,406 single-family houses in the second quarter, up 31 percent from June 2004, said MLS Property Information Network Inc., ?.''It's a sign that the market is weakening," said economist David Stiff, of Fiserv CWS Inc., a Boston real estate research firm. ?Stiff predicted 'tiny declines' or prices going 'flat for three or four years,' perhaps starting nine to 12 months from now. All you gloomy Gus's had me worried there was going to be a big drop in home prices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metamucil Posted August 27, 2005 Report Share Posted August 27, 2005 Also been noticing weakness in silver and await resolution. Scenario now is for C wave to take it down to 6.11.......then back up the truck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 27, 2005 Author Report Share Posted August 27, 2005 If I had bought a home in the Northeast, Mid Atlantic, Florida, or the West Coast in the last two years, I'd be getting very worried right about now. Because, guess what, it's too late, you can't get out now. You're screwed. The guy who bought his house eight or ten or twenty years ago and who was prudent and didn't cash out his equity, who needs to sell now, can cut his price ten or twenty percent below what you paid, and still make out like a bandit. You, on the other hand, have no equity. You're toast. Tiny price declines...my behind! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitall Posted August 27, 2005 Report Share Posted August 27, 2005 How anyone with half a brain can say that you "can't lose it all" in real estate, is just.... just... I can't even think of a word for it. Obviously, not only can you lose it all, you can lose more than it all, you can lose everything you own if you have a recourse mortgage, which many investment properties do. A deficiency judgement can wipe you out. The guy is not only a moron, he's a criminal for making statements like that. NBC and GE are a disgrace for allowing that kind of insane, moronic, criminal public commentary. Cramer is a sick and dangerous individual. GE better get some opposing points of view on the air, otherwise known as the truth, or I would think they are headed for some major lawsuits. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> You are right, Doc. Our society worships money and fame so much that many people do not realize this: Rich and famous people can be mentally ill just as easily as anyone else. As a mental health professional, I can assure you, this is very much the case. The TV networks like to take advantage of mentally ill persons when their insane ravings happen to agree with the points of view that the TV station wants people to believe. That is, they like an insane person who raves along with a point of view that helps their sponsors sell people more stuff-- stocks, mutual funds, RE, loans, whatever. I can't remember if it was Ben Franklin or who it was (it was someone equally renownde) who said "Yes, the rich are different from you and me. They have money." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob_Boberson Posted August 27, 2005 Report Share Posted August 27, 2005 Fitzgerald: The rich are different than you and me. Hemingway: Yes, they have more money. This never actually happened; it is a retooling of an actual encounter between Hemingway and Mary Colum, which went as follows: Hemingway: I am getting to know the rich. Colum: I think you?ll find the only difference between the rich and other people is that the rich have more money. Source: Wikpedia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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