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Third Wind 5/16/24

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Yesterday's rally had a bit of not a second, but a third wind, feel to it. The first leg began around April 18, when I was reporting that cycles and liquidity showed the market was headed for a new high in this bull phase. The second wind started on May 2 after a false start on May 1. So after the lull of the past week, this looks like the third wind to me. Illustrating with the 2 hour bars on the ES. 


The 5 day cycle projection on the ES is now 5335.  

In my daily swing trade screens, the first pass for trend structure had 191 on the buy side and just 23 on the sell side. But only 2 of the buys passed the trigger screen, while 3 of the sells did. Both trigger numbers are extremely low, suggesting that it's too late to buy and too early to sell.  Swing Trade Screen Picks – No Way!

The usual 1 hour bar look. 


For moron the markets, see:   

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1 hour ago, DrStool said:

The 5 day cycle projection on the ES is now 5335.  

I will see that and raise it to 5345. 

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The winds...are about to change.



I spent the last half hour reviewing my old BIM 5.0's decline prognostications. 

While the topping formation(as mentioned in July of last year) has converted into a RH dominant Twin Peaks Formation(the same as with BTC and ETH in 2021) I view the comments to be made within that final public BIM to be just fine...and will age well. 

Especially, when viewing the broad markets and gold.

Gold is in a major breakout?

No.  It is not.

I said last July that gold was in a bubble...we're about to find out if I'm a fool or not.  If 192 in the GLD is broken to the downside...just step away for awhile. 

At 'the' low.  I'll step in and say something and point in the right direction to 'blue skies'.

In the meantime...I expect it to lose 4 digits and quite quickly.

The slaughter will come in TWO full waves...over time.  Then, as I stated in the BIM 5.0...I expect the bear market in the gold issues to be complete.  Not a moment before...

2,24(x) to 2,25(x) will be touched in the ^GSPC

Like I said when I showed up in the spring of '22...patience will be the order of the day and I will repeat yet again. 

"You're still in the topping formation...the decline hasn't started yet".

Although...as stated above.  The winds, they are a changing.

33k + 7k = 40k

Do. You. Understand. Me.


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Just filed my French tax return. The confirmation email in bold letters confers a human right of which I had not been previously aware. 

J'ai le droit à l'erreur

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