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Quietly Bullish April Fool's Easter Monday 4/1/24

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Europe is on holiday today, so it's kind of quiet, but of course US stocks start the week on an up note. What else is new?

The ES 24 hour S&P futures made a new high overnight. They're pulling back in the 7-8 AM hour, with trend support upcoming at 5260-63. That line will be around 5265 as NY opens.

The overnight high was about 5275. The overnight high base breakout measures to 5315. The 5 day cycle projection is 5295. The 5 day cycle is out of whack, now more than 6 trading sessions past the last peak. So it's a horse of a different fire department. I'm thinking trending mode until it tells us otherwise. That would necessarily start with a break of the aforementioned support trendline. 

Liquidity is seasonally bullish. The End Is Not Nigh

147lyt

There’s no sign of meaningful downside from the cycle picture, even though a late 6-month cycle down phase remains a possibility. Here’s what to look for next.   Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Cycles – The 10-12 month cycle projection has risen to xxxx. The high is ideally due xxxxxxx-xxxxxxxx. A 6-month cycle low is ideally due on xxxx xxx. A down phase hasn’t materialized. While there’s still time, it may not, due to xxxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx in April.   Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail – . The SPX could be making a double top, but Thursday’s high exceeded the earlier high by a hair. If they’re going to top out, they usually miss by a hair. The odds favor xxxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx. If they take out the high, there’s immédiate clearance to xxxx, rising to xxxx at the end of the week.   Non subscribers click here to access.

There are a couple of trend support lines at xxxx-xxxx on Monday which would need to be broken for a pullback to happen. The first support area is at xxxx. Only if that’s broken would we get the beginnings of a bigger top pattern.   Non subscribers click here to access.

Long-Term Weekly Chart – 3/24/24 An updated 3-4 year cycle projection now points to xxxx, ideally due in 2025.   Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart – A strong March turned long-term momentum to the buy side, signaling a likely 7-year cycle up phase. The top of the uptrend channel is around xxxx in April. If cleared, the next trend resistance and target would be roughly xxxx. The upper channel line would become support. For now, xxxx is support.   Non subscribers click here to access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

 

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The screens found 384 total buys and 238 total sells last week. Among those were 26 short term buy signals and 15 short term sell signals that were actually triggered on one of the days. On Thursday only (final trading day last week), there were 117 total buys and 57 sells. 11 buys and 4 sells were triggered Thursday. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

However, I couldn’t find much in the way of low risk trend structures. The buys were mostly already extended or one of a series of whipsaw signals. The sells were mostly still in uptrends, and will be subjected to rebounds from rising trend support. Non-subscribers click here for access.

March was a good month. The average gain for picks closed out this month was 7.3% on an average holding period of 32 calendar days. The average gain on picks still open plus those closed out last week was 16.7% on an average holding period of 31 calendar days. Past performance does not suggest future results. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Publication is on a weekly interval, but with revised methodology I now review charts daily. There are now 3 layers of screens. The first is the raw output various buy and sell triggers. The second filters those for intermediate trend. The third is a filter of short-term signal triggers. The new method reduces the final output to a manageable number for final visual review and selection for the list. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I want the output to be simple to follow and to require only a few minutes to review and implement each week. I post a table with specific signal indications along with the charts of the new buy and sell short picks so that you can evaluate them and do with them as you might. Non-subscribers click here for access.

We came into last week with 11 open picks, including 4 shorts and 7 longs. One long and one short hit their stops during the week leaving 3 short and 6 longs at the end of the week. I am adding just one long and no shorts this week, to start the week with 7 longs and 3 shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I have adjusted stops for all existing picks. New picks will be added without stops. Risk management is assumed via multiple small positions that won’t break the bank if they go wrong. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Table of picks and performance in the subscriber report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Chartpicks033124.png?resize=724%2C326&ss

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

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It's the Treasuries, Stupid. 

Warned about this.  The End Is Not Nigh

Date Security Type Total Offering Total Publicly
Held Maturing
Net New Cash or
(Pay Down)
04/01/2024 Coupons $217,000 $92,224 $124,776

 

147qsa

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THE GREAT BOND ESCAPE

From 2009-2019 the FED had created the perfect gulag system for free debt.

It made all the borrowers...........home buyers, private equity, commercial real estate buyers very very rich.

Where bond holders worked away for .....nothing in return.

The perfect wealth transfer machine.

Until the virus print created all that inflation.

Until the great bond gulag escape of March 2022.

Now the FED is in full "Band Aid" mode.

Its desperately keeping the ten year around 4.25%.

Still subsidizing the borrowers. 

 

 

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