DrStool Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 On 11/12/2023 at 9:35 AM, fxfox said: I was a big fan of his during my days on the Street. Farrell never imagined that the Fed would engage in long term rigging of the stock market to only go up. There are long periods when the general consensus is right. Bear markets no longer have 3 stages, and they haven't since the 73-74 bear market. The "public" is actually institutional investors. Exponential runs sometimes do correct by going rangebound. The other points are generally still true, although obviously bear markets are a helluva lot more fun than bull markets. 😂 At Friday's close I had thought that the ES, 24 hour S&P futures were headed straight for 4450, but this morning the hourly chart 5 day cycle projection has moderated to 4430, thanks to the Monday morning quarterback pre market trades where a few longs had second thoughts. So now the target is two resistance lines around 4430. If they start to turtle above that, then I'd expect 4460-65 this afternoon. Meltup Gonna Take You Hiya Over in the bond market, the 10 year Treasury yield is still in its uptrend channel, but also still losing upward momentum on the cycle oscillators. Maybe a little pullback to test the trend before the move to the upside in yield resumes. Fuggedaboutit! Treasury Supply Ain’t Going Away The yellow relic remains its frustrating self, and the short term poor tents (down by the river) aren't good. Gold Bullish Pullback But Miners Are Doubtful For moron the markets, see: Swing Trade Screen Picks – Loading Up on Buys November 13, 2023 Meltup Gonna Take You Hiya – Link Corrected November 13, 2023 Gold Bullish Pullback But Miners Are Doubtful November 8, 2023 Swing Trade Screen Picks – More Longs November 7, 2023 Not Just a One Week Wonder November 6, 2023 Fuggedaboutit! Treasury Supply Ain’t Going Away November 5, 2023 Which to Believe, the BLS or Actual Tax Collections November 3, 2023 Here’s Why Macro Liquidity Still Signals Record Danger October 28, 2023 Dealers Pull In Their Horns October 14, 2023 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted November 13, 2023 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 Going down? moment of truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BreakOut Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 “I was a big fan of his during my days on the Street. Farrell never imagined that the Fed would engage in long term rigging of the stock market to only go up.“ Ah, yes, the good old days of stock market investing. Though on a much longer time frame than he (or I) ever imagined, old Bob may still get the last laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 The problem with that "How a bear market behaves" is the lack of data series. In modern times there wre like what 5 or 6 bear markets. Thats statistically not significant. That#s why people always come up with "1929" and "1970s" analogies, cause there are no other ones. All the rest - going back to 1700s or ancient times - are for the garbage can. The data is completely unreliable. There is even lots of discussion about he Fama-French dataset and that set is bascially the basis for everyone who backtests data from the 1920s on. I was not around in the markets in the 1970s but I know one thing for sure. "1929" analogies were all over the place. Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted November 13, 2023 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 1 hour ago, fxfox said: was not around in the markets in the 1970s but I know one thing for sure. "1929" analogies were all over the place. Right? Not that I recall. 1987 yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 1 hour ago, DrStool said: Not that I recall. 1987 yes. Interesting. Regarding 1987 and the analogies to 1929 back then I was aware of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 They just rotate between the Top 10 stocks. Today they push up Tesla. On other days Tesla down, Apple up, or Mafia siighlty down, but Amazin.bomb up huge. That‘s how they keep the thing afloat. Easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WTF Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 AAPL looking tired and set-up for a possible major decline... 3.30.22 might be worth looking at.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted November 13, 2023 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 58 billion in T-bill settlements tomorrow and Turdsday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 1 hour ago, DrStool said: 58 billion in T-bill settlements tomorrow and Turdsday. Big move tamara Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted November 13, 2023 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 Not necessarily. It will come out of the RRP slush fund. I warned 5 years ago that the RRPs would be a slush fund that would support the market when the Fed went into a tightening cycle. Got that right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 14 minutes ago, DrStool said: Not necessarily. It will come out of the RRP slush fund. I warned 5 years ago that the RRPs would be a slush fund that would support the market when the Fed went into a tightening cycle. Got that right. Yep. Once the slush fund is empty they gonna end QT. Then they wait a bit and look what the market does. If down, they gonna start QE all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted November 13, 2023 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 My guess is that it won't go completely empty. Some holders like the guarantee of the Fed. RRP is the same as good old paper money, except it pays interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 10 minutes ago, DrStool said: My guess is that it won't go completely empty. Some holders like the guarantee of the Fed. RRP is the same as good old paper money, except it pays interest. But the FED could end the program and force the holders out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted November 13, 2023 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 Absolutely. Circumstances will dictate. The Fed is never proactive. It never sees the unintended consequences of their actions until it's too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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