DrStool Posted July 20, 2023 Report Share Posted July 20, 2023 OK, I keed. I keed. We got the little 3 day cycle pullback into what should be the low of that cycle right now. But whether the 5 day cycle has also topped out isn't yet clear. It depends on what happens between 7:20 and 9:30 AM ET. The pullback has reached trend sport, as I write. If it continues lower from here, then the 5 day cycle high was yesterday and we get a down phase into Monday, maybe Tuesday. If the hourly ES, 24 hour S&P futures, holds at 4558, then we get another shot up into a 5 day cycle high today or early Monday. That would show the wave still skewing to the right and up. Which would then imply a short pullback or consolidation and another wave to another new high by next Wednesday or Thursday. Wash, rinse, repeat. For moron the markets, see: Swing Picks Following Gold’s Yellow Brick Road July 18, 2023 Finally, A Few ShortsJuly 17, 2023 Young Bull Growing Stronger July 17, 2023 We’re Not There Yet July 16, 2023 Stocks Are Scraping the Ceiling July 9, 2023 Withholding Tax Rebound Sets Up a Bearish Fed Catch 22 July 6, 2023 Golden 13 Week Cycle Turn and Other Hopeful Signs 7/5/23 July 5, 2023 It’s Not Your Daddy’s Liquidity Anymore July 5, 2023 We Now Know What is Driving the Rally June 20, 2023 The Fed’s Slush Fund is Working June 16, 2023 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. Lots of new photos for you travel bugs! My travel photo blog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 20, 2023 Author Report Share Posted July 20, 2023 Money rates are now slightly positive to consumer inflation. Historically they've reached punitive levels before the market turned. In other words, monetary policy is not tight enough to stop the asset price inflation. That's because the RRP slush fund withdrawals are far outstripping the Fed's QT in adding money to the market versus the draining from QT. We’re Not There Yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted July 20, 2023 Report Share Posted July 20, 2023 1 hour ago, DrStool said: Money rates are now slightly positive to consumer inflation. Historically they've reached punitive levels before the market turned. In other words, monetary policy is not tight enough to stop the asset price inflation. That's because the RRP slush fund withdrawals are far outstripping the Fed's QT in adding money to the market versus the draining from QT. We’re Not There Yet Send that to Rick Santelli or that other guy at CNBC who asks usually questions during the FED presser. He should ask if the FED is aware of the above mentioned mechanisms and what they intend to to against it or if they just don‘t care. Problem with asset price inflation is that people feel „rich“ and therefore will go on spending with both hands and that will lead to further inflationary pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 20, 2023 Author Report Share Posted July 20, 2023 Key juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 20, 2023 Author Report Share Posted July 20, 2023 Red Channalert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 20, 2023 Author Report Share Posted July 20, 2023 Neckline break measures to 4525 if it sticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 20, 2023 Author Report Share Posted July 20, 2023 Would need to end the hour below 4547 and be dropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 20, 2023 Author Report Share Posted July 20, 2023 sport lines at 4542 and 4540. Until they break...nothing has happened yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 20, 2023 Report Share Posted July 20, 2023 Dow Jones on the move? Bitcoin - problem with 30k, alert for risky assets? dollar getting bid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 20, 2023 Report Share Posted July 20, 2023 IWM (russel 2000) problem with triple top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 20, 2023 Report Share Posted July 20, 2023 Netflix, tesla -> ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted July 20, 2023 Report Share Posted July 20, 2023 1 hour ago, SiP said: Netflix, tesla -> ugly Although the earnings were not bad. Could be a sign that the mood shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 20, 2023 Author Report Share Posted July 20, 2023 5 hours ago, DrStool said: Neckline break measures to 4525 if it sticks. Low so far 4528. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 20, 2023 Report Share Posted July 20, 2023 Info from Poland HUF and PLN getting sold for the past two days. Something is brewing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 20, 2023 Report Share Posted July 20, 2023 just check eurhuf usdhuf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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