DrStool Posted February 15, 2003 Report Posted February 15, 2003 Momma Said There'd Be Days Like This 2/14/03 Doc has seen a tremendous amount of gnashing of teeth on the message board since Friday afternoon. That's because people are trying to game the tape too much. The fact is that this "game" requires very little thought about gaming. That's what indicators are for. We need to let them do the thinking for us.?It's not that hard. As usual Doc examines the Feed, chronicles the market cycles, and tells us where this shipwreck is heading, with hot pictures of naked stock charts, the Long Bong Hit, Uncle Buck and the Golden Stool. Will Uncle Buck ever get out of his sick bed? Will the Golden Stool ever recover, or is the move over now that Cramer is on board? Drop by your stock proctologist's office, and get the inside picture, all in the Anals tonight. Stoolies, log one in. If you're not a stoolie already, become one Now! And don't forget to join Doc during the market day in Stooltrading Beta as he plots the market's twists and turns for you, in advance yet!
DrStool Posted February 15, 2003 Author Report Posted February 15, 2003 The initial posting had some day old bread in the Nasdaq Cycle Table. Now updated. Many tanks to GF for noticing!
plantigrade Posted February 16, 2003 Report Posted February 16, 2003 people are trying to game the tape too much Would that refer to the (duct) tape on the doors and windows ?
BAREister Posted February 16, 2003 Report Posted February 16, 2003 uh, Docstahhhh....The END will be MIFFED. ACTUALLY, it's "Momma said there'd be days like THESE."
SupplySider Posted February 16, 2003 Report Posted February 16, 2003 Great Anals. I especially liked the inclusion of a primer on how to use cycles effectively.
jraabe Posted February 16, 2003 Report Posted February 16, 2003 One of Dr. Stool's best. Great review of how to use Doc's cycles for profit and mental health. Worth the membership dues just for this single read.
fxfox Posted February 16, 2003 Report Posted February 16, 2003 Wonderfull Anals Doc! As Supply Sider i too found the explanation of how to trade the cycles very helpfull. Having that explanation in mind and looking at the status of the 10-13 week, 6 month and 12 month cycles it looks like if someone did cover all his shorts as we were at 805 he didnt make a mistake, downside looks limited, because of the upturn in the 6 month cycle. Now the best strategy looks to be to wait for the 6 month topping out, and then short again. That short postion should be a very profitable one, all the bigger cycles should be in downmove in a few months (maybe in May?). My strategy will be to wait till May or so to trade that downmove, maybe with a september or december 800 or 850 Put, till then i let the market chop and flip flop without my participation. The comming weeks look like there could be wild action. Those who are short since S&P 940 or 930 they can stay short, all the others should wait for good entry and be patient. 2003 could be more or less an exact copy of 2002. Tanks Doc!
GregFokker Posted February 16, 2003 Report Posted February 16, 2003 Doc, you appear to be forecasting a larger move for the COMPX than for the SPX on the 8-13 day cycle, unless I'm reading it wrong. Is that simply the cmap projection as you see it, or is there something that I'm missing?
Ned38 Posted February 17, 2003 Report Posted February 17, 2003 Thank you Doc I found that 101 on the cycles helpful
DrStool Posted February 17, 2003 Author Report Posted February 17, 2003 I wouldn't be so sure the 6 month cycle has bottomed. It's just not clear yet. The conditions are getting there, but it's just not a done deal. When oscillators are low, the market is weak. There is the potential for another spike down. Consider that all of the great crashes came after the market had already gotten Dover Sole. So until the cycle indicacators turn up, to me it's a hold and see situation. GF- Yes, it is the way the cmaps look to me at this point. 20 points on the Nas is not a big deal. That's barely a good opening gap.
GregFokker Posted February 17, 2003 Report Posted February 17, 2003 Right on Doc. From the action in Uncle Buck, gold and the fuk-u-tures tonight, we could well see a gap open at the cmaps. Glad to have a break tomorrow.
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