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Momma Said There'd Be Days Like This 2/14/03 Doc has seen a tremendous amount of gnashing of teeth on the message board since Friday afternoon. That's because people are trying to game the tape too much. The fact is that this "game" requires very little thought about gaming. That's what indicators are for. We need to let them do the thinking for us. It's not that hard.
As usual Doc examines the Feed, chronicles the market cycles, and tells us where this shipwreck is heading, with hot pictures of naked stock charts, the Long Bong Hit, Uncle Buck and the Golden Stool. Will Uncle Buck ever get out of his sick bed? Will the Golden Stool ever recover, or is the move over now that Cramer is on board? Drop by your stock proctologist's office, and get the inside picture, all in the Anals tonight.
Stoolies, log one in. If you're not a stoolie already, become one Now! And don't forget to join Doc during the market day in Stooltrading Beta as he plots the market's twists and turns for you, in advance yet!
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Momma Said There'd Be Days Like This 2/14/03
Your Weak End Anals
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#3
plantigrade 
- Bachelor of Stock Proctology
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- Joined: 07-December 02
Posted 16 February 2003 - 01:14 AM
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people are trying to game the tape too much
Would that refer to the (duct) tape on the doors and windows ?
#4
BAREister
- Clinical Professor of Stock Proctology
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Posted 16 February 2003 - 01:17 AM
uh, Docstahhhh....The END will be MIFFED.
ACTUALLY, it's "Momma said there'd be days like THESE."
ACTUALLY, it's "Momma said there'd be days like THESE."
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war
"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos
"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005
"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!
"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw
"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)
"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04
"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"
Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996
"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc
"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04
"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04
"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04
"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger
"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos
"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005
"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!
"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw
"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)
"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04
"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"
Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996
"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc
"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04
"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04
"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04
"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger
#5
SupplySider
- Master of Stock Proctology
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Posted 16 February 2003 - 12:53 PM
Great Anals. I especially liked the inclusion of a primer on how to use cycles effectively.
Posted 16 February 2003 - 03:31 PM
#7
fxfox
- Clinical Professor of Stock Proctology
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Posted 16 February 2003 - 04:38 PM
Wonderfull Anals Doc! As Supply Sider i too found the explanation of how to trade the cycles very helpfull.
Having that explanation in mind and looking at the status of the 10-13 week, 6 month and 12 month cycles it looks like if someone did cover all his shorts as we were at 805 he didnt make a mistake, downside looks limited, because of the upturn in the 6 month cycle.
Now the best strategy looks to be to wait for the 6 month topping out, and then short again. That short postion should be a very profitable one, all the bigger cycles should be in downmove in a few months (maybe in May?).
My strategy will be to wait till May or so to trade that downmove, maybe with a september or december 800 or 850 Put, till then i let the market chop and flip flop without my participation. The comming weeks look like there could be wild action. Those who are short since S&P 940 or 930 they can stay short, all the others should wait for good entry and be patient.
2003 could be more or less an exact copy of 2002.
Tanks Doc!
Having that explanation in mind and looking at the status of the 10-13 week, 6 month and 12 month cycles it looks like if someone did cover all his shorts as we were at 805 he didnt make a mistake, downside looks limited, because of the upturn in the 6 month cycle.
Now the best strategy looks to be to wait for the 6 month topping out, and then short again. That short postion should be a very profitable one, all the bigger cycles should be in downmove in a few months (maybe in May?).
My strategy will be to wait till May or so to trade that downmove, maybe with a september or december 800 or 850 Put, till then i let the market chop and flip flop without my participation. The comming weeks look like there could be wild action. Those who are short since S&P 940 or 930 they can stay short, all the others should wait for good entry and be patient.
2003 could be more or less an exact copy of 2002.
Tanks Doc!
'patriot' is formed with 'patria' and 'idiot'
#8
GregFokker
- Dean of Stock Proctology
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- Joined: 02-February 02
Posted 16 February 2003 - 07:48 PM
Doc, you appear to be forecasting a larger move for the COMPX than for the SPX on the 8-13 day cycle, unless I'm reading it wrong. Is that simply the cmap projection as you see it, or is there something that I'm missing?
...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech
Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny
Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty
Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny
Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty
#10
DrStool
- Chief of Stock Proctology
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Posted 16 February 2003 - 10:41 PM
I wouldn't be so sure the 6 month cycle has bottomed. It's just not clear yet. The conditions are getting there, but it's just not a done deal. When oscillators are low, the market is weak. There is the potential for another spike down. Consider that all of the great crashes came after the market had already gotten Dover Sole. So until the cycle indicacators turn up, to me it's a hold and see situation.
GF- Yes, it is the way the cmaps look to me at this point. 20 points on the Nas is not a big deal. That's barely a good opening gap.
GF- Yes, it is the way the cmaps look to me at this point. 20 points on the Nas is not a big deal. That's barely a good opening gap.
#11
GregFokker
- Dean of Stock Proctology
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Posted 16 February 2003 - 10:43 PM
Right on Doc. From the action in Uncle Buck, gold and the fuk-u-tures tonight, we could well see a gap open at the cmaps. Glad to have a break tomorrow.
...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech
Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny
Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty
Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny
Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty
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