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Here's How Liquidity Trader Can Help You Trade With Confidence - 5/7/24

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5 hour bars on the ES 24 hour S&P futures show the market to be extended here to the level where previous minor tops have formed. The market has also reached a major resistance area.


So where to from here? Straight down today? Lately the 3 and 5 day cycle periods have merged into a 4 day cycle expression. This is a common feature of this market. If the pattern holds up here, then a low would be due today and the market won't correct much. At 7 AM NY time trend support is rising at roughly 5165, headed toward 5185 at the NY close.

If that line holds, the next move should be to a new high. That would show that the market is in trending mode. And that's a situation where it is until it isn't. 


On the other hand, if that trendline breaks, then there's a case for a pullback to 5150-55 before the next rally. 

In the third week of April, when almost everyone was all beared up, I was bullish because both liquidity analysis and cycle analysis showed that a bottom was forming. Want to know what to do now? Stay ahead of the curve. Know what to expect and trade with confidence. 

For moron the markets, see:   

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No idea. Ours is not to reason why,

Ours is but to forecast the flows and float with them. 

Higher tax receipts will prolong the seasonal paydowns. The timing of the market reaction to the annual paydown festival varies by a few days from year to year, but once triggered, we know what to expect. 


Tax revenues in March and April create a cash bulge for the US Treasury. It normally uses that cash to pay down a couple hundred billion in T-bills in April and May. They plan to do so again this season. The money from paying off those T-bills will flow into investor accounts. Some of that money will be used to buy stocks and bonds. That should cause xxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxxx into mid to late May. 

The End Is Not Nigh March 26, 2024

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