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Yesterday Top, Today Bottom 3/22/24

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When you're talking about the 5 day cycle, things happen fast. In an uptrend, up phases are skewed to the right in time. Down phases don't last long. And a 5 day cycle low is ideally due today. 

Yesterday, the ES 24 hour S&P futures failed to reach the 5 day cycle projection of 5275. It was stopped at a trend resistance line at 5260, which I had pointed out in the AM, as being a possible stopping point. 

But as with everything, it's temporary. There's an itty bitty downtrend in force this morning, and an itty bitty head and shoulders breakdown that has a conventional measured move price target of 5220-25. But there's a spport trend convergence in the 8-9 AM hour around 5225. These often market pivot points.

Ladies and gentlemen, place your odors. A Top is In, But Which One Is It



23 hours ago, DrStool said:

Meanwhile, my cycle screen swing trade list continues to do extremely well as trailing stops protect increasing profits. A stop was hit on two of the shorts, taking them out with nice profits. Another stop was hit on just one of the longs also taking it out with a nice profit and at a better price than its current price. As a result, the current performance the 11 picks on the list this week, including open picks and those stopped out this week, shows an average gain of 22.7% on an average holding period of 37 calendar days. For the month of March so far, including previously closed trades, the average gain is 13.7% on average holding period of 32 calendar days. 

The tweaks that I have made recently to the screening algorithms have now completely automated the process and that appears to be working by removing my judgement from the process. 😁   Swing Trade Screen Picks – Adding Stops to Take Profits March 17, 2024


Past performance does not suggest future results.

As of today +22.8% with another stop picked off. 

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Yesterday Treasury announced blockbuster coupon auctions totaling $176 billion gross, plus $28 billion in floating rate notes. Net issuance of $125 billion. That's frightening. The TBAC is no longer publishing advance estimates so we were in the dark on this for the first time.

Now as bad as this looks, the TBAC is still forecasting gross issuance by paper type by month and they had shown gross of $183 billion in coupons and $30 billion in floaters. So this isn't as bad as forecast. 

But it's still a horrendous amount of cash to raise. The bill paydowns that would normally fund this have barely started yet. This paper settles on April 1. Buckle up. Turbulence ahead.  Primary Dealers Raise Red Flag

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A day of reckoning is coming soon for High Yield Corp Bonds... the spread is pricing in very little risk... I don't think that is going to be the case...

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It's not dotcom bubble. From spx or nasdaq to gold ratio perspective we are half way there which means spx would need to hit almost 11k to say we are in the same level of bubble.


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Investors on Wall Street appear to have gone "dry" through the statistically difficult months of February and March. Admittedly, March is not over yet, but this entire two-month period does not count as a particularly successful one on the equity markets. Meanwhile, this period this year has been quite lucky for equity holders. And if we look at the market from the perspective of presidential cycles then statistically the first half of the year, in a US presidential election year, should be weaker than the second half, with the trend taking a flat form. Meanwhile, the start of 2024 is decidedly positive and stands out statistically against other similar periods. So, will the remainder of the first half of the year 'break away' from statistics even more, or will it be a move towards confirming the statistical pattern?


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