DrStool Posted September 27, 2023 Report Share Posted September 27, 2023 Weeks ago I began ruminating in my real work, that being Liquidity Trader, and in this case the Technical Trader reports, whether the coming 6 month cycle low would be a nice soft rounded bottom, or a vicious, violent V. There's really no way to know until the process is under way. I bet on the benign, despite warnings from my liquidity research that a very significant top was forming. Well, now we know. V it is. Victory for the bears. Vomit for the bulls. Early bottom pickers (comme moi) have gotten bombed over the past few days. You pays your money and you takes your chances. I am pleased that my liquidity analysis did show as early as July, the beginnings of an important stock market top. It has also led to a consistently and relentlessly bearish conclusion about the bond market. There's no way around the fact that until the Fed gets back into the business of buying Treasuries in massive size this won't change. Bond fund holders are doomed. If you are rich enough to buy them outright and hold them until they mature, then you don't need my research or anyone else's. Clip those coupons baby! Do they still have paper Treasuries with coupons? In today's news, the Phillies are back in the playoffs and the Eagles are 3-0. I don't know whether this is bullish or bearish. But I'm happy tonight. I'm not fearing any man because I have seen the promised land. It's a roast pork sandwich shop in S. Philly near the stadium complex. As for the secondary matter of today's market, 4260 was the number to look for on the 5 day cycle projection. 4270 on the 2-3 day. Been there, done that, and there's a big positive divergence on the hourly oscillators on the ES, 24 hour S&P futures. So it looks like a bottom. But I said the same thing yesterday. Fool my once shame on you yadda yadda. Make no mistake what happened yesterday was a new bear market confirmation signal. But the first leg is well advanced. Prime Time for Danger and Opportunity As for swing trades, I will probably try- buy a few on the dip. But I'm pretty bloody from yesterday. Can I muster the stupidity to try again? If I do, I will hold with tender fingers, dripping with the fat and juice and fixins of a DiNic's Roast Pork sandwich. A sandwich that was once a pig. And now you know the rest... of the story. As for the bond market, permit me to repost my now world famous Hindenburg Omen chart of the TLT that I first published 18 months ago. The Rhymes of History For moron the markets, see: Screen Picks – Still Longing for a Bottom September 26, 2023 Prime Time for Danger and Opportunity September 25, 2023 The Rhymes of History September 24, 2023 Gold’s Flat Squeeze Tightens September 21, 2023 Screen Picks – An Awful Week, But Hold On a Minute! September 18, 2023 Here’s Why This Stuck Market Is Not Surprising September 13, 2023 Beware! Jobs Really Much Weaker Than They Say September 4, 2023 Here’s Why This Is a No Clickbait Market for Primary Dealers August 24, 2023 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 27, 2023 Author Report Share Posted September 27, 2023 The Italian pulled pork version is my favorite. It's greasier and more flavorful than the sliced version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 27, 2023 Author Report Share Posted September 27, 2023 5 day cycle projection drops to 4230. Hard to believe harry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted September 27, 2023 Report Share Posted September 27, 2023 comments? Lee your report shows the declining bank deposits due to QT, what are the outer branches that Christopher is referring to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itiswhatitis Posted September 27, 2023 Report Share Posted September 27, 2023 What is the difference and definitions of a “hard” and “soft” landing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 27, 2023 Author Report Share Posted September 27, 2023 1 hour ago, potatohead said: comments? Lee your report shows the declining bank deposits due to QT, what are the outer branches that Christopher is referring to? Oh my goodness, I have no idea. I just look at aggregates. This is no surprise and is going exactly as forecast when the Fed started QT. It's direct cause and effect. Yet somehow, people are surprised that deposits are declining. It was a given as soon as QT became policy. As far as parsing what kinds of deposits they are, that's above my pay grade. 😊 Nor do I see the value in that kind of detail. But I have probably used the words crash and accident interchangeably in my reports for the last 18 months. 😊 That the Fed wouldn't change anything until after it happened. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 27, 2023 Author Report Share Posted September 27, 2023 26 minutes ago, itiswhatitis said: What is the difference and definitions of a “hard” and “soft” landing? Well, it's hard when you're 32, but soft when you're 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 27, 2023 Author Report Share Posted September 27, 2023 Boinggggg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 27, 2023 Author Report Share Posted September 27, 2023 Now that's a bullish chart... Oh... wait The Rhymes of History Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 27, 2023 Author Report Share Posted September 27, 2023 Just bottom of channel to top of channel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted September 27, 2023 Report Share Posted September 27, 2023 Looks like intervention by a ultra big name. No reason for short covering since there were no news, no data, nothing, therefore most likely intervention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted September 27, 2023 Report Share Posted September 27, 2023 The market better never finds out that Tesla is obviously just a car manufacturer: Tesla P/E of 62 BMW 3.5 (Three point five) Mercedes 4.8 (Four point eight) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 27, 2023 Author Report Share Posted September 27, 2023 TSLA is a meme, not a stock. Like BTC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted September 27, 2023 Report Share Posted September 27, 2023 5 minutes ago, DrStool said: TSLA is a meme, not a stock. Like BTC. Xactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted September 27, 2023 Report Share Posted September 27, 2023 1 hour ago, itiswhatitis said: What is the difference and definitions of a “hard” and “soft” landing? NYT from Sep 1973: IMG_5147.webp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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