Jump to content

Take a Random Walk on the Sell Side 8/7/23

Rate this topic


Recommended Posts

The ES, S&P 500 24 hour futures need to clear 4500 this morning or the bears can take control. Clearing that would open the way for a move back to 4520-30, where the bull case would be tested again. On the other hand, failing to clear would open the way for a straight shot to 4420. Wouldn't that be fun. 

A 5 day cycle projection of 4480 was hit overnight. The 5 day cycle last bottomed on Thursday, but the up phase has been puny. There was a lower low on Friday and they haven't been able to get going this morning. Ideally, they're out of time, with a 5 day cycle high due as I write this around 6 AM New York Time.

So the bulls have both a resistance challenge and a time challenge. Doesn't mean that they can't overcome it. But if the bears can't succeed today with these factors in their favor, it's curtains for them. Curtains I tell ya. Under the Big Top

image.png 

Meanwhile, watch out. The 10 year yield looks headed for a breakout, and dealers are still plenty net long bonds. Not good. Let the Scary Pictures On Primary Dealer Financing Do the Talking

image.png

For moron the markets, see:

If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.  

image.png

image.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 4
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

The screens produced 54 charts with multiple buy signals as of the last two trading days. There were 118 charts with a second sell signal. Considering that the broad market indicators suggested top formation I was more interested in reviewing the charts on the sell side for short sale candidates. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

While I looked at the buy side, we have enough buys on the list and I started with the thought that I am reluctant to add more. Non-subscribers click here for access.

After visual review, I chose 5 charts to add to the short sale side. These are shown on the table below. Non-subscribers click here for access.

8 existing buys on the list hit stops last week. I also dropped two shorts as of the opening price on August 1. After these changes, there will 15 active picks on the list of which there are 7 longs and 8 shorts including the 5 new ones. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The original 10 have aged enough that I’ve added stops to all of them. The new picks will be added without stops. In recent months I have been allowing the picks to age for at least 4 weeks before adding stops. I have assumed risk mitigation through diversification and small position sizes. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Last week was a good week, and a good start for the month. Most of the longs on the list did well because they were in the oil sector. I had added them 4 weeks ago when there were numerous buy signals in that sector. Whenever there’s a cluster of signals in a sector, it’s usually a good sign that the group is going to have a move. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Currently open picks and those closed out last week, show an average theoretical gain of 5.7% on an average holding period of 29 calendar days. 67% of the picks closed last week or still on the list had gains. Non-subscribers click here for access.

July had been difficult. After starting off with a string of losses on closed picks, the month ended at dead breakeven on the basis of a good last two weeks. Just 59% of the picks were winners, and the result was only a breakeven. I marvel at those options tout services who report 1000% gains month after month. But I wonder why they don’t own the world. Non-subscribers click here for access.

7/10/23 June was solid, with 25 picks closed at an average theoretical gain of 9.7% on an average holding period of 36 calendar days. The numbers assume all cash, no leverage, no margin, no options. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Table in report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

The public facing report is not the complete report. Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There were lots of signs that the xxxxxxx cycle topped out last week, but nothing that will signal how weak the down phase will be. It depends on whether a couple of key support lines that are just below current levels, hold or not. This report tells you how long the down phase will last, what it means for the big picture, and the key levels that will tell us what’s next.   Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Tell a friend

    Love Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board? Tell a friend!
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
  • ×
    • Create New...