DrStool Posted August 4 Report Share Posted August 4 The market put in a 5 day cycle low yesterday. The ES, 24 hour S&P futures now face resistance at 4525. If they clear it, then yes, Virginia, BTFD lives. On the other hand, there's a spport line convergence at 4514. If broken, the market could quickly plunge to the next spport level around 4485. If that broke I'd look for 4440. Or fight. Jobs day today. The withholding tax data doesn't bode well. I'll be posting a report on that within the hour. For moron the markets, see: Gold’s Pain in the Bottom August 2, 2023 Thanks But No Thanks August 1, 2023 Let the Scary Pictures On Primary Dealer Financing Do the Talking July 31, 2023 Rally is Tired But Here’s Why Not to Go Short July 30, 2023 Correlations Don’t Matter Until They Do, Like Now July 23, 2023 Withholding Tax Rebound Sets Up a Bearish Fed Catch 22 July 6, 2023 It’s Not Your Daddy’s Liquidity Anymore July 5, 2023 We Now Know What is Driving the Rally June 20, 2023 The Fed’s Slush Fund is Working June 16, 2023 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted August 4 Report Share Posted August 4 silver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted August 4 Report Share Posted August 4 An increase in bond yields is at the same time a decrease in their price. It turns out that the current period of falling bond prices in the US is the longest on record and has already lasted 36 months. And this is in spite of the fact that inflation has fallen quite significantly over the year. Well, but interest rates to the contrary, and no one here is yet announcing reductions, but rather emphasizing the possibility of further increases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted August 4 Report Share Posted August 4 From polish blue chips perspective (WIG20) in USD its a typical small correction which should stop right now or this is something bigger Chart from october low till now. you could trade (long) that based on EPOL etf (from 10 to 21 so it made 100% increase since oct-2022) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 4 Author Report Share Posted August 4 Natural gas cars. https://www.instagram.com/reel/Cuw2ULMJbZn/?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA== Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted August 4 Report Share Posted August 4 187K new jobs. Unemployment rate FALLS to 3.5%, average hourly earnings grow by 0.4% Economists had been expecting 200K new jobs, a 3.6% unemployment rate, and 0.3% average hourly wage growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 4 Author Report Share Posted August 4 More Supply is Just a Lie But Withholding Weakens LEE ADLER 1 - LIQUIDITY TRADER- MONEY TRENDS AUGUST 4, 2023 Market pundits worried this week about the coming massive increase in Treasury note and bond supply. There’s just one problem. It’s not true. The issuance schedule is exactly the same as first forecast in May. And T-bill supply is coming down. Non-subscribers, click here for access. Subscribers, click here to download the report. But there’s a big problem despite that. Withholding tax collections have gone flat. This is real time, actual collections data, not some retrospective, manipulated government economic statistic. So we know that the jobs data is BS. Non-subscribers, click here for access. A deeper dive tells us that there’s no immediate reason to expect material change in stock price trends. But at the same time, conditions for change will ripen over the next couple of months. We need to be ready. This report tells you what to look for. Non-subscribers, click here for access. Subscribers, click here to download the report. KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted August 4 Report Share Posted August 4 6th consecutive month of negative Nonfarm Payroll revisions (bottom panel). That's occurred twice before: in 2H 2007 and 1H 2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted August 4 Report Share Posted August 4 revisions in 2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted August 4 Report Share Posted August 4 31 minutes ago, DrStool said: More Supply is Just a Lie But Withholding Weakens LEE ADLER 1 - LIQUIDITY TRADER- MONEY TRENDS AUGUST 4, 2023 Market pundits worried this week about the coming massive increase in Treasury note and bond supply. There’s just one problem. It’s not true. The issuance schedule is exactly the same as first forecast in May. And T-bill supply is coming down. Non-subscribers, click here for access. Subscribers, click here to download the report. But there’s a big problem despite that. Withholding tax collections have gone flat. This is real time, actual collections data, not some retrospective, manipulated government economic statistic. So we know that the jobs data is BS. Non-subscribers, click here for access. A deeper dive tells us that there’s no immediate reason to expect material change in stock price trends. But at the same time, conditions for change will ripen over the next couple of months. We need to be ready. This report tells you what to look for. Non-subscribers, click here for access. Subscribers, click here to download the report. KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! Lee, Chart on page 7 needs to be corrected. Was a little confusing. Both years are 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 4 Author Report Share Posted August 4 Thanks. Will do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 4 Author Report Share Posted August 4 Done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 4 Author Report Share Posted August 4 Potatohead, you should change his handle to Eagle Eye. As in Silver Eagle Eye. 😁 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Takachi-1 Posted August 4 Report Share Posted August 4 That Money Trends report is absolutely essential information. worth the price of a quarterly subscription Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 4 Author Report Share Posted August 4 Thank you sir! 🙂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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