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Is BTFD Dead? 8/4/23

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The market put in a 5 day cycle low yesterday. The ES, 24 hour S&P futures now face resistance at 4525. If they clear it, then yes, Virginia, BTFD lives.

On the other hand, there's a spport line convergence at 4514. If broken, the market could quickly plunge to the next spport level around 4485. If that broke I'd look for 4440. Or fight. 

10y67e

Jobs day today.  The withholding tax data doesn't bode well. I'll be posting a report on that within the hour. 

For moron the markets, see:

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  • DrStool changed the title to Is BTFD Dead? 8/4/23
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An increase in bond yields is at the same time a decrease in their price. It turns out that the current period of falling bond prices in the US is the longest on record and has already lasted 36 months. And this is in spite of the fact that inflation has fallen quite significantly over the year. Well, but interest rates to the contrary, and no one here is yet announcing reductions, but rather emphasizing the possibility of further increases.

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From polish blue chips perspective (WIG20) in USD its a typical small correction which should stop right now or this is something bigger

Chart from october low till now.

you could trade (long) that based on EPOL etf (from 10 to 21 so it made 100% increase since oct-2022)

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Market pundits worried this week about the coming massive increase in Treasury note and bond supply. There’s just one problem. It’s not true. The issuance schedule is exactly the same as first forecast in May. And T-bill supply is coming down. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

But there’s a big problem despite that. Withholding tax collections have gone flat. This is real time, actual collections data, not some retrospective, manipulated government economic statistic. So we know that the jobs data is BS. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

A deeper dive tells us that there’s no immediate reason to expect material change in stock price trends. But at the same time, conditions for change will ripen over the next couple of months. We need to be ready. This report tells you what to look for. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

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31 minutes ago, DrStool said:

Market pundits worried this week about the coming massive increase in Treasury note and bond supply. There’s just one problem. It’s not true. The issuance schedule is exactly the same as first forecast in May. And T-bill supply is coming down. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

But there’s a big problem despite that. Withholding tax collections have gone flat. This is real time, actual collections data, not some retrospective, manipulated government economic statistic. So we know that the jobs data is BS. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

A deeper dive tells us that there’s no immediate reason to expect material change in stock price trends. But at the same time, conditions for change will ripen over the next couple of months. We need to be ready. This report tells you what to look for. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

Lee, Chart on page 7 needs to be corrected.  Was a little confusing. Both years are 2022

image.png.6bd19710f5104ac61e3e5b9103b47ff5.png

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