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Kicked Out 7/26/23

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1 hour ago, fxfox said:

The thing with all that statistics and graphs stuff on Twitter regarding inflation, markets, ratios and whatnot is this:

Give me a set of data and I present you any kind of result you are wishing for.

you are right in 90%.

Time to time your really find nice charts that depict reality. Of course its many times hard to trade them or you get this knowledge after the fact (you know why X moved).

e g. I really like explanation about conditions in economy right now. the chart that is sayin that corp took fixed credit in 2020 and thats one of the reason why rate rise doesn work.

Of you would knew that before then actually you could traded that. The same with inflation that it will drop. I talked about it in October 2022.

And first of all. Chart is chart. I prefer stories or story telling. I really like the story right now that rates dont work right now, and if we come back to boom (industries orders should pick up due to the end of destocking process) then we would see inflation again due to high capacity utilisation.

and btw gold doesn't hedge you in times of inflation. Gold is a deflation bet. So i would sell gold and prefer oil if we gonna have a boom and china will pump up the economy.

 

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9 hours ago, SiP said:

you are right in 90%.

Time to time your really find nice charts that depict reality. Of course its many times hard to trade them or you get this knowledge after the fact (you know why X moved).

e g. I really like explanation about conditions in economy right now. the chart that is sayin that corp took fixed credit in 2020 and thats one of the reason why rate rise doesn work.

Of you would knew that before then actually you could traded that. The same with inflation that it will drop. I talked about it in October 2022.

And first of all. Chart is chart. I prefer stories or story telling. I really like the story right now that rates dont work right now, and if we come back to boom (industries orders should pick up due to the end of destocking process) then we would see inflation again due to high capacity utilisation.

and btw gold doesn't hedge you in times of inflation. Gold is a deflation bet. So i would sell gold and prefer oil if we gonna have a boom and china will pump up the economy.

 

My point was this:

You give a bull and a bear the absolute same set of data. The interpretation of that data set will be not the same and the graphs and charts they will present out of that also not. So now let's say we are at Twitter: Cause you tend a bit to the bear-site, for what reason ever, the Twitter algorithm will mainly show you tweets from bears and THEIR explanation and interpretation of data, which will basically just be the opposite of the interpretation of the same data set by a bull at the very same time. That's confirmation bias. You search for things which confirm your bias.

Remember when the market cracked in 2000. Everyone on the internet was absolutely sure by 100% that we will see the 1994/1995 lows in the Nasdaq again, there were lots of charts floatiing around which did show an analogy to 1929-1932. Both never materialized. Would you have just ignored all the hype and just followed plain and simple chart reading with a basic setup of MA's you would have gone out of the market at least in Q2 2000 and not entered before Q2 2003.

People forget that "The Hype" is not a unique bull thing. Bears generate "Hypes" too. This board here was full of lunatics, preppers and all kinds of voodoo-people back in 2002/2003... right at the bottom...

 

 

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9 minutes ago, SiP said:

Yes, I agree with you. Thats why I also follow Bulls :)

The problem is that, in my opinion, people tend to be less optimistic and even pessimistic.

Lot of people see only risks, but never chances. Chance and risk are like twins. If you never take a risk, you will never have the chance to achieve aomething.

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