DrStool Posted February 21 Author Report Share Posted February 21 All kidding aside, it's still pointing to 3990, and could be lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 21 Author Report Share Posted February 21 1 day cycle projection looking 3985. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 21 Author Report Share Posted February 21 Lest there be any doubt what crushed this market this month. Date Security Type Total Offering Total Publicly Held Maturing Net New Cash or (Pay Down) 02/28/2023 Bills $186,000 $177,998 $8,002 02/28/2023 Coupons $144,000 $93,232 $50,768 02/24/2023 Coupons $22,000 $0 $22,000 02/23/2023 Bills $142,000 $189,998 $(47,998) 02/21/2023 Bills $171,000 $147,983 $23,017 02/16/2023 Bills $133,000 $98,994 $34,006 02/15/2023 Coupons $96,000 $67,118 $28,882 02/14/2023 Bills $171,000 $137,980 $33,020 02/09/2023 Bills $108,000 $99,009 $8,991 02/07/2023 Bills $171,000 $119,988 $51,012 02/02/2023 Bills $108,000 $98,997 $9,003 01/31/2023 Bills $171,000 $120,002 $50,998 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 21 Author Report Share Posted February 21 And if you think money is coming out of the Strategic Cash Reserve. Thimk again! Down just $2 billion since 4 weeks ago. $2 billion out of more than $2 trillion. That's one tenth of 1 percent. And what's $2 billion against the Treasury creaming the market with $270 billion in new supply over 3 weeks! And that includes the offset of a massive paydown on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 21 Author Report Share Posted February 21 The hourly chart of the 10 year yield this month. Any questions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WTF Posted February 21 Report Share Posted February 21 I think it is now safe to say that 235 on the HUI is broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 21 Author Report Share Posted February 21 Hourly chart of 13 week bills this month. Any questions. See ya, Tamara. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted February 21 Report Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, DrStool said: And if you think money is coming out of the Strategic Cash Reserve. Thimk again! Down just $2 billion since 4 weeks ago. $2 billion out of more than $2 trillion. That's one tenth of 1 percent. And what's $2 billion against the Treasury creaming the market with $270 billion in new supply over 3 weeks! And that includes the offset of a massive paydown on Thursday. That‘s quite sick. But that the „SCR“ is 2 trillion big… hm… that a lotta dough to support the market when needed, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 21 Author Report Share Posted February 21 4 minutes ago, WTF said: I think it is now safe to say that 235 on the HUI is broken. The HUItanic hit a Goldberg. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 21 Author Report Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, fxfox said: That‘s quite sick. But that the „SCR“ is 2 trillion big… hm… that a lotta dough to support the market when needed, right? There's always a lot of money in MMFs. People have to want to use it. The only one's moving money out are the institutional holders and they're probably just moving to the 13 week bills to lock in those fat 90 day returns. You Can Now Follow the Diabolical Usual Suspects Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 21 Author Report Share Posted February 21 I was getting a little bulled up in January because I thought the Treasury would pay down debt under the debt ceiling, but the tricky bastards changed strategy this time. As soon as I woke up to that, I recognized that it would be curtains. CURTAINS I TELL YA!!!!! for the market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted February 21 Report Share Posted February 21 9 minutes ago, DrStool said: There's always a lot of money in MMFs. People have to want to use it. The only one's moving money out are the institutional holders and they're probably just moving to the 13 week bills to lock in those fat 90 day returns. You Can Now Follow the Diabolical Usual Suspects Ah ok, could be just a shift from overnight to short term. The yield of short term paper is just sick. Normally all those insurers will or already have sold stocks and real estate and completely shift to interest rate products. So who is the bagholder of all those ultra risky junk stocks like Lucid, Rivian etc.? J6P is. They gonna get so sooo cruzified, holy crap! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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