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Why We Should Expect Something Different This Time 4/19/21

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First, let's start with a little perspective. This is a 2 hour bar chart back to early March. Lately the market has risen for 10 days on weaker momentum. It suggests that this 10 days has been a down phase of sorts, relative to the two previous uplegs. That would imply a breakout and acceleration ahead. On the other hand, the big scoop in the middle of the chart from which this launched only has a measuring implication of 4160. We got a little higher to the trend resistance zone now around 4185-4200. 

tvc_09deaa829db85c9619b63a5836b55732.png
 lick to enlarge

I expect they'll test that again today. A breakout would trigger a fearsome rally, I think. A vertical space needle. On the other hand, a rollover is likely to result in more rangebound mush. Breaking below 4160 could generate a bit of a downdraft to trend support, now rising at 4145 at 5:45 AM in New York, to 4155 at the close this afternoon. 

 

tvc_3c358d7393d25fbede863e74844cd5fb.png

 Click to enlarge.

As always, the benefit of the doubt goes to the upside resolution scenario until proven otherwise. Although I don't see a reason why it would do other than stay in the current channel and work gradually higher. 

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Swing Trade Picks For Week of April 19, 2021

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Adding a sliding parallel to the 4M chart, and et voila. At least for now. My trading is even worse when there's this much volatility, so I'm going to head to the beach. Doc, sorry for the serial post

I like serial posting. Cheerios, Shredded Wheat, Grape Nuts. It's all good. 

Adding a sliding parallel to the 4M chart, and et voila. At least for now. My trading is even worse when there's this much volatility, so I'm going to head to the beach. Doc, sorry for the serial posting. Hasta mañana! 

 

Screen Shot 2021-04-19 at 9.30.13 AM.png

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12 minutes ago, DrStool said:

They're going for a trend break here. 5 day cycle projection 4149 so far. That's done. 

tvc_767406d0e22bf9cc3f86939b48dfaa51.png

market not feeling the love today... your chart may see a splash of red

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36 minutes ago, potatohead said:

market not feeling the love today... your chart may see a splash of red

Just the dealers shakin the trees a little. They need equity inventory. 

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I just have the feeling from looking at what I look at, that this is going much, much higher. 

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30 minutes ago, DrStool said:

I just have the feeling from looking at what I look at, that this is going much, much higher. 

That's probably the top signal. 

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