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Why We Should Expect Something Different This Time 4/19/21

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First, let's start with a little perspective. This is a 2 hour bar chart back to early March. Lately the market has risen for 10 days on weaker momentum. It suggests that this 10 days has been a down phase of sorts, relative to the two previous uplegs. That would imply a breakout and acceleration ahead. On the other hand, the big scoop in the middle of the chart from which this launched only has a measuring implication of 4160. We got a little higher to the trend resistance zone now around 4185-4200. 

 lick to enlarge

I expect they'll test that again today. A breakout would trigger a fearsome rally, I think. A vertical space needle. On the other hand, a rollover is likely to result in more rangebound mush. Breaking below 4160 could generate a bit of a downdraft to trend support, now rising at 4145 at 5:45 AM in New York, to 4155 at the close this afternoon. 



 Click to enlarge.

As always, the benefit of the doubt goes to the upside resolution scenario until proven otherwise. Although I don't see a reason why it would do other than stay in the current channel and work gradually higher. 

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Swing Trade Picks For Week of April 19, 2021

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36 minutes ago, potatohead said:

market not feeling the love today... your chart may see a splash of red

Just the dealers shakin the trees a little. They need equity inventory. 

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