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Short covering bounce,or something more?


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Multiple Under Reported Busts and Big Employment Cost Increase Will Clobber Earnings

April 11, 2012By Lee AdlerRuss Winter thinks that corporate earnings will be bad because of busts under-reported busts in key economic areas. Russ, Lee Adler, and Aaron Krowne discuss the huge student loan delinquency problem, and the big jump in full time employment in March. This is a subscriber only podcast.

 

Posted

The action on GDX stinks. Gold almost 50 dollars off the lows and GDX is .50 off the 52 week lows. On a day the overall market was up and gold flat, the miners closed down .50.

 

Have a look at this dollar chart. I think something big is brewing. It might cause one heck of a bip down on Gold coming up.

This is purely based on my interpretation of recent action in this sector.

post-1444-133417877532_thumb.jpg

Posted

The action on GDX stinks. Gold almost 50 dollars off the lows and GDX is .50 off the 52 week lows. On a day the overall market was up and gold flat, the miners closed down .50.

 

Have a look at this dollar chart. I think something big is brewing. It might cause one heck of a bip down on Gold coming up.

This is purely based on my interpretation of recent action in this sector.

 

I am not as good with charts as you are, Madness, so I am probably wrong. But neither gold nor the dollar looks bullish or bearish to me. They both just seem to be hanging around going pretty much sideways. I guess one or both of them will have to do something sooner or later. As for the miner stocks, they seem to be in a world all their own-- definitely bearish for quite some time. One would think they would bottom some time-- unless they are going to end up being given away for free like natural gas futures.

 

Supposedly there is a popular hedge fund trade being long gold and short miners as a hedge. If so, it sure looks like it works great.

Posted

If you want to see what was Madness ranting about yesterday, you can go to traders talk tonight and see it first hand. Fib showed up and it appears he had both buy and sell recommendations on Apr 3rd. So even though buy post was on the board and sell recommendation was who knows where else, sell takes precedence. All in the name of "subscribers". lol Comical.

Posted

Nothing that bearish on the weekly chart (yet),unless we take out 1350.....

 

i just can't let this one slide

 

there was a weekly reversal candle on the DOW30, the S&P500 and the Wilshire5000

 

bearish reversal candles don't happen often

 

they usually mean something important

 

you can look it up

Posted

i just can't let this one slide

 

there was a weekly reversal candle on the DOW30, the S&P500 and the Wilshire5000

 

bearish reversal candles don't happen often

 

they usually mean something important

 

you can look it up

You may be right,I have no clue which way we go.I was just saying that the chart does not look too bad at the moment. :unsure:

Posted

The action on GDX stinks. Gold almost 50 dollars off the lows and GDX is .50 off the 52 week lows. On a day the overall market was up and gold flat, the miners closed down .50.

 

Have a look at this dollar chart. I think something big is brewing. It might cause one heck of a bip down on Gold coming up.

This is purely based on my interpretation of recent action in this sector.

 

AAPL yeild 1.8% and P/e 17.82 next year 12.41

Intel yeild 3.1% and P/e 11.65 next year 10.63

GG Yield 1.3% and P/e 18.59 next year 12.02

 

Gold stocks are selling gold once sold, gold reserve goes down but shareholders have not benefited much, CEO have done well

 

 

My link

 

My link 2

 

Major gold mining companies, whose shares have dropped even as the gold price rose, should be paying out more in yields and dividends to attract shareholders and broaden the appeal of gold investment, a key industry figure charged on Thursday.

 

"You look at the seniors (major companies) who have had just a terrible performance. They're not giving any leadership to the industry," Rob McEwen, chief executive of McEwen Mining Inc told the Reuters Global Mining and Metals Summit in New York.

 

"They're actually a deterrent (to investment)," he said of big gold companies, known as seniors.

 

He noted that since 2006, the gold price has risen 133 percent while shares in Goldcorp, the company he founded two decades ago, are still trading at around the same price. On Thursday, Goldcorp closed down 15 cents at C$44.31 in Toronto. During 2006, it hit a high of $45.99, according to Thomson Reuters data.

 

"Goldcorp's production has increased 80 percent," said McEwen, who is no longer connected with the company. "It used to be that when your production went up, your share price went up. Their share price is flat."

 

He cited similar data for other major U.S. and Canadian gold companies. There was no immediate comment from Goldcorp on McEwen's comments.

 

"Over the last six years, it's been a horrible place to have your money," he said of gold company equities, which have come under recent competition from exchange-trade funds (ETFs) which allow investors to buy physical gold.

 

"They don't have money in their companies, so when they wake up they are not thinking about how to increase the share price. It's more about 'how do I increase my salary or my bonus?'"

Posted

THE PAIN IN SPAIN FALLS MAINLY ON THE BOND

 

Didnt take long for LTRO to run out of puff.

 

And its taking the stock markets down with it.

 

Theres only one way to solve the eurocrisis

 

It can be solved by one simple little magic word

 

The magic word that no magician central banker will dare utter

 

The magic word is "Default"

 

 

 

 

 

There is a reason gold miners havnt gone anywhere.

 

Gold miners just dont produce that much free crash flow to give to shareholders.

 

They have to spend all the free cash flow to replace production

 

Its all the capital spending that is depressing gold company stock prices.

 

i.e the cost of mining an ounce of gold is rapidly rising - as fast as or faster than the price of gold is rising.

 

So stock prices of gold miners are falling until the dividend yield (which as a consequence rises) is high enough to attract investors.

 

Look out for the miners who will can their capex plans and increase their dividends - they will get a nice bounce.

 

The market is demanding less capex and higher dividends.

 

Actually that would be quite bullish for gold prices too!!!

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