Charmin Posted January 6, 2009 Report Share Posted January 6, 2009 Let's start a war without weapons. "Europe faces energy crisis as Vladimir Putin cuts Russian gas supply. EU countries are dependent for one quarter of their gas supplies on Russia." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/...gas-supply.html DIG? OIH? UNG? UGA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted January 6, 2009 Report Share Posted January 6, 2009 Another surprise for commod traders. Beware, commodity index rebalancing ahead Posted by Izabella Kaminska on Jan 05 15:34. The major commodity indices rebalance their respective asset weightings once a year (or occasionally more) - and with that comes a mass dose of buying and selling. The 2009 rebalancing is expected to start sometime this week. Luckily, JP Morgan has produced its best guess of how the 2009 reweightings of the DJ AIGCI and the S&P GSCI indices will impact the market. The weightings for both indices are released ahead of time, but begin to kick in the first few working days of the new year. In the case of the DJ-AIGCI - which JP Morgan estimates has $25bn in funds tracking it - the new weightings come into force during the roll period that begins January 9th. The S&P GSCI index weightings kick-in after its January roll which commences January 8th. JP Morgan estimates about $50 bn of investment into that index. As the DJ weighting multipliers account for changes in US dollar-denominated values there is generally more potential for large changes there than in the GSCI, whose weightings are set in terms of ounces/tonnes (on the basis of liquidity and are weighted by their respective world production quantities). Accordingly, JP Morgan see the most significant change coming in the DJ-AIGCI rebalance. Here the market weight of crude oil is expected to increase from 9.6 per cent to 13.8 per cent, gold from 10.8 per cent to 7.9 per cent, copper (COMEX) from 4.5 per cent to 7.3 per cent, live cattle from 6.4 per cent to 4.3 per cent and sugar from 4.7 per cent to 3.0 per cent. Meanwhile, S&P GSCI crude oil weight will go from 32 per cent to 33.8 per cent. Their analysis: link They are increasing the crude component 40%. Cute, real cute. Who can forget when GS cut the unleaded gas component of their index in Sept. 06? Well probably everyone but me. It didn't do squat for the GOP in the election but probably it helped out the GS prop desks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pit Privy Posted January 6, 2009 Report Share Posted January 6, 2009 Number 2. I've already ordered a used hardback (Hurst's The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing.)off of eBay. When Dr. Stool says "Number 2," people listen. Each time I cut through these WSE reports, I am able to retain more and more. I'm finding Investopedia.com to be a very handy source of information ... go there and read a little about bonds, T-notes, TED spreads, and what not alphabet soup entity, and then the next Fed report gets that much easier to slice through. Sit and ruminate on the nature of bond prices versus yields; stuff like that is hard to move from the abstract to the practical for those of us who have never yet dealt with it. Ex-sheeple who are tired of trusting those crooks with my dough. It's similar to all the graphs on the market reports. It's a ton of information on one graph, and to provide a legend for every single datum would clutter things up. The more I learn, the more I'm able to recognize unlabeled lines as moving averages of other lines, bollinger bands, and what not like that. Like the 6-month cycle graph at the top of page 7 of tonight's report. I think the two green lines and the blue one represent the 6-month, and I suppose two moving averages of it, I've been staring at those for a good long while and I think I'm figuring out which is which, more or less... Anyway, it's all good stuff. I'm enjoying the learning process, and having Doc a guide in this jungle of a market environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phatbubble Posted January 6, 2009 Report Share Posted January 6, 2009 jickiss is back! jickiss is back! and here is a link to the exact percentage changes of certain "con"-ponents of commodity indices that will impact commodity funds, it is thought... http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/01/05...alancing-ahead/ "In financial terms, we expect the rebalancing to have the greatest impact in gold, COMEX copper, crude oil, gold, and live cattle. We estimate that the rebalancing of the two indices is expected to result in $877 million of selling in gold, $699 million of buying in COMEX copper, $528 million of selling in live cattle, and $523 million of buying in crude oil." IMHO a significant amount of future supply destruction occurred with the oil selloff. Now it's almost like Someone wants money flowing back into oil to kickstart that upside. The old riverboaters have been thrown overboard penniless. Need to dock up ahead here and get some fresh new ones. An oil price that yo-yos up and down is essentially the inflation/deflation wealth confiscation cycle, hiding in plain sight. USO looks like it needs to find somewhere comfy to lay down for a few days, but if we don't see a 3-handle on oil again right quick, the upside could surprise everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dharma Posted January 6, 2009 Report Share Posted January 6, 2009 today the rebalancing for the commodity indexes was announced. could be partially to bame for golds beating. as its % was reduced. the first 3 articles on jesse's home page i found extremely interesting http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/ dharma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pretzel Logic Posted January 6, 2009 Report Share Posted January 6, 2009 "In financial terms, we expect the rebalancing to have the greatest impact in gold, COMEX copper, crude oil, gold, and live cattle. We estimate that the rebalancing of the two indices is expected to result in $877 million of selling in gold, $699 million of buying in COMEX copper, $528 million of selling in live cattle, and $523 million of buying in crude oil." IMHO a significant amount of future supply destruction occurred with the oil selloff. Now it's almost like Someone wants money flowing back into oil to kickstart that upside. The old riverboaters have been thrown overboard penniless. Need to dock up ahead here and get some fresh new ones. An oil price that yo-yos up and down is essentially the inflation/deflation wealth confiscation cycle, hiding in plain sight. USO looks like it needs to find somewhere comfy to lay down for a few days, but if we don't see a 3-handle on oil again right quick, the upside could surprise everyone. Can't say this all would upset me too much, seeing as I am net short gold and net long oil at the moment. My oil longs have done very well so far, and I expect more upside -- my gold shorts are still churning. It always intrigues me when the news "just happens" to confirm what you already knew was coming based solely on the charts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 6, 2009 Author Report Share Posted January 6, 2009 I've already ordered a used hardback (Hurst's The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing.)off of eBay. When Dr. Stool says "Number 2," people listen. Each time I cut through these WSE reports, I am able to retain more and more. I'm finding Investopedia.com to be a very handy source of information ... go there and read a little about bonds, T-notes, TED spreads, and what not alphabet soup entity, and then the next Fed report gets that much easier to slice through. Sit and ruminate on the nature of bond prices versus yields; stuff like that is hard to move from the abstract to the practical for those of us who have never yet dealt with it. Ex-sheeple who are tired of trusting those crooks with my dough. It's similar to all the graphs on the market reports. It's a ton of information on one graph, and to provide a legend for every single datum would clutter things up. The more I learn, the more I'm able to recognize unlabeled lines as moving averages of other lines, bollinger bands, and what not like that. Like the 6-month cycle graph at the top of page 7 of tonight's report. I think the two green lines and the blue one represent the 6-month, and I suppose two moving averages of it, I've been staring at those for a good long while and I think I'm figuring out which is which, more or less... Anyway, it's all good stuff. I'm enjoying the learning process, and having Doc a guide in this jungle of a market environment. Love to hear stuff like that. Tanks P-P! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roxy Posted January 6, 2009 Report Share Posted January 6, 2009 Let's start a war without weapons. "Europe faces energy crisis as Vladimir Putin cuts Russian gas supply. EU countries are dependent for one quarter of their gas supplies on Russia." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/...gas-supply.html DIG? OIH? UNG? UGA? No, I don't think it will affect prices much, not enough to play it. But what you can expect now is that russian stock market will go to $0. They are not a reliable partner, and in the west it's punishable by economic death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 6, 2009 Author Report Share Posted January 6, 2009 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2009/01/06/f...sional-edition/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solax Posted January 6, 2009 Report Share Posted January 6, 2009 When I was a kid back in the 60s I worked on Sundays in the fall as a vendor at Franklin Field, mainly so that I could get in to the games for free. Jerry Wolman owned the iggs at the time. They had a 200 piece marching band, the Eagles Sound of Brass, that would march down 33rd Street toward the stadium playing that song before the game. As the massive ensemble marched through the brick archway at the northwest corner of the stadium, with the fans filling the old bilevel brick stands to the rafters roaring their approval, never was there a more stirring sight or sound to a 14 year old who loved his Eagles. It is something that has always stayed with me. I've never been to the Linc, but I sincerely doubt that the feeling of those days in Franklin Field that something grand and important and terrific was taking place could ever be created in today's modern football stadiums. And what owner would pay for a 200 piece marching band? I played lacrosse at Drexel right next door to UPenn. When it snowed we would practice at Franklin Field but the only time slot available would be 6:00AM. Imagine practicing in the snow at 6:00AM with a college lifestyle. Yuck! But it brings back memories. I did my first internship with the Iggles in their Sales & Marketing division. Fun times as well. Doc, I would suggest you visit the Link. It may not have that same home town sports atmosphere but it is a heck of a stadium. Easy to get in and out of, not a bad seat in the house. I'm a Skins fan but they have the NCAA Lacrosse finals at the Link every few years and it is a great stadium to watch a game in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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