Marijuana Burnouts

[SkiddMarket]

I am now 100% sure this bullish wedge will break to the upside for significant gains. Why.....any takers?

[Jimbo]

WINDY'S FAVORATE AMAT GETTING RATHER SICK

 

Fact One: this rally has killed off most of the perma bears and short sellers

 

Fact two?: The resumption of the Big Bear will now kill off all the overleveraged longs.

 

Easy money is an insult ot the market and it just wont put up with it for very long.

[FeedFool]

Chart

[Bird D Durr]

I sure hope...........Things are as "Gung Ho" for bankruptcy attorneys out west as everyone is saying.............................

 

I'm betting............Big moving expenses on it.....................

[FeedFool]

Chart

[FeedFool]

I am now 100% sure this bullish wedge will break to the upside for significant gains. Why.....any takers?

Chart

[FeedFool]

http://www.safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=1356

 

There is today clearly no "general price level" to manipulate. Instead, inflationary effects are uncertain and wildly divergent. There may be excess capacity in a wide range of manufactured goods, but there is notably less available supply of residences throughout California and in the more appealing cities and neighborhoods throughout the country. Inflationary policies today impart a muted impact on most goods prices and even CPI, but at the same time fuel a precarious real estate buyers' panic. Yes, there may be underutilized workforces globally, but there is notably less available supply of copper, platinum, and crude oil. Going forward, continued accommodation of rampant Credit inflation will surely incite panic buying and shortages in many key commodities markets. There may be enormous available capacity to produce more goods, but procuring raw materials and transportation will, in many cases, prove increasingly challenging.

 

The flaws in the Inflationists' analysis are many. There is no control today over the system of Global Wildcat Finance's creation of new claims, nor is there the capability to direct how this purchasing power is expended. In the current environment, newly created liquidity will almost surely chase inflating asset markets - California real estate, energy markets, emerging markets, commodities, or U.S. Credit market instruments. And inflating asset markets beget only more destabilizing Credit and liquidity creation.

 

And this gets right to the heart of the overriding problem with out-of-control U.S. Current Account Deficits: Acute Financial Fragility. The risk of destabilizing asset Bubbles and Boom & Bust dynamics overwhelms any potentially positive impact inflation may impart on goods and labor markets. The inflationists are fighting a losing war. Systemic risk only grows (exponentially) over time, as increasingly distorted asset markets and imbalanced economies become gluttons for only greater quantities of Credit excess. And speculative excess expands, evolves, and disperses to more markets. So far global central bankers have sustained the massive requisite Credit inflation and accommodated reckless speculation, but the resulting unstable financial, economic, and political landscape becomes more conspicuous by the week.

[Ned38]

The Second Lie

So the PPI is buried, now how does the administration get rid of inflation?? Answer:? Fuel Surcharges.? Fuel surcharges aren't counted as "inflation" because they are deemed "extraordinary."?? I expect there has been a rash of phone calls from the neocons to their corporatist pals with a simple requestr:? "You're a patriot, right?? OK, we need you not to raise your rates.? Use? a "fuel surcharge" instead, so we don't have to report high inflation,? OK?? That way you will make the same amount of money at your corporation - and be doing a big favor for the President, who we all know needs a second term in order to defend our American Way of Life, right?"? "Err...I guess so..."? "The President thanks you..."

Don't know about oil , but..............

 

Many in my industry are going the "surcharge" route rather than simply jacking up prices. Why?, .......because some of these guys sell products that are 80% steel.

And yes it is most critical that the sharp increase in price be percieved as "extraordinary" "temporary" and due to factors beyond both control and human comprehension.As if these price increases are coming from outer space rather than malfeasance on the part of the government .

 

I don't know whether or not these steel guys have been encouraged to do this in order to protect the no inflation administration or they are just doing it because they have no other loophole in their supply contracts, but either way this method of passing on the price hike has become very popular.

[chibear]

From the Weekend Australian (via Drudge):

 

Government under fire over bombings

From correspondents in Madrid

March 14, 2004

MORE than a thousand people held a protest in Madrid today to blame this week's bombs in the capital on the government's unpopular decision to support the US war on Iraq.

 

Shouting "The bombs on Iraq have exploded in Madrid" and "Resign", the crowd gathered in front of the ruling Popular Party's headquarters but were held back by police in riot gear.

 

The demonstration, on the eve of general elections, came amid conflicting theories as to who was to blame for Thursday's blasts on crowded commuter trains that killed 200 people and wounded nearly 1500.

 

C'mon guys, you can get 1000 lefties out for just about anything, especially in Spain. Day before, there were millions showing solidarity against terrorists. I don't see how you can make this out to be a sign of major anti-US feeling.

Howdy Chibear:

 

I didn't really perceive that the anti-U.S. angle is the story here at all.

90% of Spaniards were opposed to putting their troops in harms way in Iraq...no surprise there, and I think the main point in all this is that people don't appreciate being lied to or sold a bill of goods.

 

I recall a certain third rate burglary that led to an impeachment.

 

And a woman named Martha provides yet a more recent example...

 

It's not the crime that matters, it's the coverup.

 

You just can't credibly come out and decry that Al Qaeda had nothing to do with the most sophisticated bombing imaginable while the smoke is still hanging in the air...it makes you look ridiculous...especially when later proven wrong...and makes people question your agenda on many fronts...and whose interest you really represent.

 

I suspect voters will frown on that behavior. It's not about the U.S.

 

Tanks Plunger.

 

I agree with your analysis about any coverup. But a few points:

 

I don't recall the 90% opposed poll of Spaniards. Have we ever been 90% for or against anything? Maybe it's different there.

 

Also, while accepting that the Spanish government appears to have tried to finger ETA for political reasons, many others believed it was AQ from the start. I don't think we really know for sure yet.

 

As to this being "the most sophisticated bombing imaginable", I like to think that a guy in Florida remotely flying a drone over Yeman that drops a smart bomb down the gas tank of an SUV is pretty sophisticated. The Madrid bombing isn't particularly sophisticated. Just incomprehensibly cruel.

 

How's your beach? It's cold up here.

[Guest]

Howdy Chi:

 

Of course you're right...and I overstated my point entirely. Sophistication is all relative. My beach today is windy.

[Guest]

Panic & Hoarding:

 

It's interesting to do a Google search on "Panic and Hoarding" to see what comes up.

 

Obviously Y2K related stories are abundant, along with instances of hoarding of the drug Cipro following the Anthrax attacks, and of course there are stories of long gas lines at the pump in the 1970s when - as a result of increasing prices at the pump, citizens elected to top-off their tanks every day...further fueling the shortage and the price increases. Hoarding is about making sure that "I've got mine" - at the expense of those less prepared.

 

Panic Buying is a slightly different, though related animal...

 

PANIC BUYING is what happens FOLLOWING a substantial price increase. It is driven by the fear of being left out of the "next big thing"

 

Panic buying is less about survival, and more about a combination of greed, and the desire not to look stupid. In almost every case, it leads to loss, and looking stupid. The price paid for anything near the top of a panic buying spurt is never based on intrinsic value. It's always based on the assumption that the next guy will be willing to pay more.

 

The only appropriate description of the SoCal real estate market today is PANIC BUYING. Panic buying is caused not by scarcity...but by perceived (temporary) scarcity. Things are only precious when everybody wants them...and some people are buying ten of them despite only really needing one or two.

 

There is a natural cause and affect relationship between Panic Buying and its logical aftermath - Panic Selling. Whether it was Gold in The Eighties, Aspen Real Estate or QCOM in the Nineties, or Steel, Copper and SoCal Real Estate today, eventually the bingeing turns to purging...or at the least, stagnation, as inventories are worked off once the panic aspect has been removed.

 

I have a friend who has plenty of gold coins that she bought at a great price at the time...$580 per ounce. She was a genius for a few weeks. Shortages in scrap steel, copper, and California Real Estate are more a function of panic buying and hoarding than anything else. The price action of these examples is all driven by the perception of rampant growth, increased consumption, and the greater fool theory. The buying pressures that have caused the astronomical blow-off pricing in these things is a temporary mania, which can only be prolonged by ACTUAL go-go growth and REAL demand.

 

Speculators are hoarding warehouses full of copper and acres of real estate...all based on the premise of REAL demand. If you tried to explain to them that there was a time not so long ago that the very same type of demand existed for tulips, they'd never understand the correlation.

 

All manias end badly.

[BeerMarket]

Morgan Stanley says not interested in German buy

interesting quote from the president of morgan stanley:

"On the economic level, however, I am worried about the burden of the United States as growth driver for the world... This unsaid agreement, where America says 'I buy all your stuff, and you finance my deficit,' must come to an end," he said.

[chibear]

Plunger,

 

Had dinner last night with old friends who are in the same boat I'm in, looking for good value in buying a retirement home somewhere. Their choice is Cape Cod (too cold for me), but they can't seem to find anything they would want to live in for less than 700K-800K. A big problem for them is that their beautiful home in Sidney, Ohio hasn't appreciated much at all, so they aren't even close to a trade up.

 

My guess is that you're right and that there will be a stunning shakeout in the housing market.

 

But I wonder how many boomers are in this same boat, watching and waiting.

[Guest]

Plunger,

 

Had dinner last night with old friends who are in the same boat I'm in, looking for good value in buying a retirement home somewhere. Their choice is Cape Cod (too cold for me), but they can't seem to find anything they would want to live in for less than 700K-800K. A big problem for them is that their beautiful home in Sidney, Ohio hasn't appreciated much at all, so they aren't even close to a trade up.

 

My guess is that you're right and that there will be a stunning shakeout in the housing market.

 

But I wonder how many boomers are in this same boat, watching and waiting.

Chi:

 

View this time as a tremendous opportunity to be on the sidelines. Cash out of your real estate now and don't buy.

 

There are many types of alternatives to consider...I've chosen renting.

 

For years in Aspen, many of my friends enjoyed the benefits of "housesitting"

 

Essentially, some really rich bastards wanted someone living in their mansion year round, despite the fact they only visited perhaps one month per year. Many of these homes have awesome care-taker units, and of course my friends had full run of the mansion as well for wild ass parties with their other working class friends. Jimmy Buffet (who happened to live next door to Glen Frye of the Eagles...both of whom lived just down the road from me) memorialized this phenomenon in his tune "Gypsies In The Palace"

 

My point is that you may find that you could take an interim step to cash out of your northern lifestyle and enjoy a different type of life for a couple years while the market seeks a more sane level. Sometimes the only barrier to finding exaclty the situation you seek is to dare to imagine it...and then ask for the order.

 

A good friend of mine here lost her job six months ago due to a merger. She was depressed and unsure of her future career/life path. I suggested that she put all of her energies into becoming a "life assistant" for some exceptionally wealthy businessman...and to actually seek out such an opportunity.

 

She just returned to town two days ago, having spent the prior two weeks on the road with her new employer...who owns a fleet of thirty jets, yachts and a collection of mansions. She's on cloud nine, making more money than ever before and living a life she never even imagined.

 

Dare to think WAY outside the box.

[Guest]

OOOPS!

 

THAILAND: New bird flu outbreak confounds ?all clear? declaration

12 Mar 2004

Source: just-food.com

?

A new case of avian influenza has been confirmed in Thailand.

 

A laboratory test confirmed the case in a poultry sample in the northern province of Chiang Rai, reported the Chicago Tribune. This was confirmed by deputy agriculture minister Newin Chidchob.

 

The news calls into question Thailand?s declaration on Monday that it was free of bird flu. The World Health Organisation had previously called on countries affected by the virus not to issue premature declarations that they had eradicated the disease.

 

http://www.just-food.com/news_detail.asp?art=56990

 

 

Testing for bird flu to be expanded to cover most U.S. poultry

 

IRA DREYFUSS, Associated Press Writer Friday, March 12, 2004

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

(03-12) 18:21 PST WASHINGTON (AP) --

 

Government and poultry industry officials intend to expand testing for bird flu to cover most of the poultry raised in the United States, possibly this month, an Agriculture Department official said Friday.

 

The $12.5 million program would focus on the most dangerous forms of the most common variety, low pathogenic avian influenza. These forms, known as H5 and H7, can be no worse than the chicken equivalent of the common cold. If left to spread, however, they can mutate into highly pathogenic varieties that can kill entire flocks in a day.

 

The new testing system could take effect March 29, assuming it gets final Bush administration approval, said Andrew Rhorer, senior coordinator of the Agriculture Department's Poultry Improvement Plan. The plan was approved on March 5 by a committee of federal, state and industry officials that oversees the program, he said.

 

 

 

The odds of this plan being approved by the Bush administration are precisely...ZERO!

 

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?...DTL&type=health

 

 

 

 

UH OH!!!!

 

State is poised to implement tougher testing for mad cow

 

Sacramento Bee

 

SACRAMENTO - Worried that a foreign embargo on U.S. beef will ruin the state's cattle industry, state lawmakers are poised to introduce legislation to make California the first state to set broader and faster testing for mad cow disease.

 

The mere whiff of tougher, decentralized mad cow testing is drawing fire from the U.S. Department of Agriculture and some in the beef industry. Both caution that such a move would be a potentially disastrous overreaction to the lone U.S. case detected in December.

 

The USDA, which conducts limited testing, doesn't allow anyone else to test for the fatal brain-wasting disease in cattle, but a Kansas slaughterhouse is challenging that policy with plans to check its cattle with the same techniques used in Europe and Japan.

 

The USDA has so far refused the request and cautioned that testing without its approval - or even selling test kits - is against federal law.

 

Currently, USDA policy limits definitive mad cow testing to its Iowa facility, where the process can take up to two weeks. The California plan would use rapid tests that return results within a few hours. Any positive results would be sent to Iowa for confirmation.

 

 

http://www.marinij.com/Stories/0,1413,234~...2017548,00.html

 

 

"So, let me get this straight...if I don't test my products to ensure their safety, and someone dies as a result of consuming them, I'll be sued and lose my business...but if I do test my products to ensure that they are safe prior to selling them to the public, I can be thrown into Federal Prison and lose my business...is that about right?"