Tchaikofsky Posted March 14, 2004 Report Share Posted March 14, 2004 Doc: You made page 1 of the following Google search: Producer Price Index (PPI) Delay- The Truth ... Subscribe Here! What's the truth about why the Feederal Gummit didn't release the PPI as scheduled this week? Dig around the Feed's ... www.capitalstool.com/freestuff.htm - 38k - Cached - Similar pages ======================= Fed Expected to Hold Rates Steady "The Federal Open Market Committee (news - web sites) is expected to keep the key Fed funds rate at a post-1958 low of 1.00 percent and repeat, in a statement it issues after the meeting, that "it can be patient in removing its policy accommodation." A disappointing February employment report has reinforced this view and silenced any talk of rate rises, not least from policymakers themselves, who had dropped some policy tightening hints in the days before the data was released on March 5. "The Fed is not going to tighten until it sees a pick-up in inflation or tighter labor markets, and we are no closer to either of those happening," said Ethan Harris, chief U.S. economist at Lehman Bros. Inc. in New York." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted March 14, 2004 Author Report Share Posted March 14, 2004 I am now 100% sure this bullish wedge will break to the upside for significant gains. Why.....any takers? Skidd: That wedge just might be the pattern that sucks in more longs as we go back up and touch the 50-day. But if that wedge break to the upside was valid, we would have seen huge volume on Friday as confirmation that it was a bullish wedge on the weekly. We had a similar 3-wave decline from December to the March 2003 lows, in the form of a bullish wedge. That was definitley confirmed by a huge volume break to the upside, with a +250 point Dow day. Look at how much selling volume came into the DIA, SPY, and QQQ during last week's selloff. It was monstrous. Unless we get another $50 billion in mutual fund inflows in the next 30 days, there is no way we will get enough power to invalidate last week's high volume break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 14, 2004 Report Share Posted March 14, 2004 I am now 100% sure this bullish wedge will break to the upside for significant gains.? Why.....any takers?? Skidd: That wedge just might be the pattern that sucks in more longs as we go back up and touch the 50-day. But if that wedge break to the upside was valid, we would have seen huge volume on Friday as confirmation that it was a bullish wedge on the weekly. We had a similar 3-wave decline from December to the March 2003 lows, in the form of a bullish wedge. That was definitley confirmed by a huge volume break to the upside, with a +250 point Dow day. Look at how much selling volume came into the DIA, SPY, and QQQ during last week's selloff. It was monstrous. Unless we get another $50 billion in mutual fund inflows in the next 30 days, there is no way we will get enough power to invalidate last week's high volume break. Ditto! Friday's volume was a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ned38 Posted March 14, 2004 Report Share Posted March 14, 2004 Windy, Plunger, He pulled the ole switcheroo The chart attached to that post is of March 03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 14, 2004 Report Share Posted March 14, 2004 Doc: You made page 1 of the following Google search: Producer Price Index (PPI) Delay- The Truth ... Subscribe Here! What's the truth about why the Feederal Gummit didn't release the PPI as scheduled this week? Dig around the Feed's ... www.capitalstool.com/freestuff.htm - 38k - Cached - Similar pages ======================= Fed Expected to Hold Rates Steady "The Federal Open Market Committee (news - web sites) is expected to keep the key Fed funds rate at a post-1958 low of 1.00 percent and repeat, in a statement it issues after the meeting, that "it can be patient in removing its policy accommodation." A disappointing February employment report has reinforced this view and silenced any talk of rate rises, not least from policymakers themselves, who had dropped some policy tightening hints in the days before the data was released on March 5. "The Fed is not going to tighten until it sees a pick-up in inflation or tighter labor markets, and we are no closer to either of those happening," said Ethan Harris, chief U.S. economist at Lehman Bros. Inc. in New York." Hey Doc...this is great exposure! Take this opportunity to push these new prospects into the free message board forums initially rather than just leaving them with the assumption that "subscription" is their only alternative and losing them as one-hit wonders. Put some type of a "TALK ABOUT IT" link to the M2M forum right on the landing page arrrived at from Google. Let them kick the tires and find a new home here the same way many of us did...without asking for the order right up front. It's time to "own" the bearish conversation with a new group of recruits. To those of you who have just come to us for the first time...stick around...we welcome your input. You'll find that Doc's technical insights are well worth the subscription fee to access the paid portions of this site. Plunger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 14, 2004 Report Share Posted March 14, 2004 On TV...Business Week's MoneyTalk just declared: "Renters are now in charge...with residential vacancy rates hitting 11% in Atlanta, 10% in Austin and even 9% in some Florida cities, renters are finding they can pay on average 13% less this year than just a year ago." TOP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkiddMarket Posted March 14, 2004 Report Share Posted March 14, 2004 Windy, Plunger, He pulled the ole switcheroo The chart attached to that post is of March 03 Yep.... it's March 2003. Wndy hit the nail on the head- the similarity is uncanny. Take a peek at bullstool where the entire chart is posted. Good luck, everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purdymouth Posted March 14, 2004 Report Share Posted March 14, 2004 2-yr Treasury Note price objective: zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 14, 2004 Report Share Posted March 14, 2004 Virtually everything related to European transportation/tourism will get crushed on Monday...which is a measure of fear, which markets express in selling pressure, which begets more fear. The dollar's weakness has already cost Europe the American Tourist Dollar this coming summer, and with these newly heighten fears which will be felt in Greece (Summer Olympics), Italy, Spain, France and Great Britain, the costs of the collapse of tourism will be enormous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain's Log Posted March 14, 2004 Report Share Posted March 14, 2004 Back in 1999 and 2000, while I was a restaurant owner and a tech stock (primarily QCOM) owner and a mutual fund owner (aggressive growth only), I would, on a daily basis, compute my "time to retirement". In the early stages of this daily ritual I assumed my portfolio would grow at an annual 8% rate. By late 1999, I was using 15%. By the top in 2000, I was assuming 30% annual growth for my stock portfolio (mind you this was extremely conservative at the time as I had owned QCOM from $8 share in Feb. 1999 to around $150 at the time of the top). Fortunately I cashed in everything at the high in fall 2000. Over the past few months I have been extrapolating my future net worth by forecasting real estate appreciation of 7% annually (the 40 year trend in West Coast Real Estate prices). If I wasn't so flippin' bearish, I would probably be at the "stock top of the year 2000" level of asset inflation assumptions, ie. 15% per year real estate appreciation. Because I'm so bearish, I only assume 7% growth. LOL We have finally reached the mentality needed for a top in real estate here in SoCal. The mistakes of the early 90's have been swept under the rug. Those who have been conservative due to worries about a real estate bubble have been completely and absolutely discredited. The wall of worry is GONE!!!! Everybody is in. People are flipping properties, joining real estate investment groups and doubling down by using existing equity to purchase investment property at 3% cap rates. The median home in SD county is up 50-friggin-percent in 2-friggin-years!!! The most bearish comments I've heard are "we may level off here for a year or so before the economy gets going". We're going down in flames people. I was there also in Icarus days of yr 2000. Used to look at what I was worth based on all the options and shares bought in ESPP. People in my company we talking about retiring at 40. Never gave a thought that it would end. It was like boiling a frog - Small drops here and there till I came to the conclusion in 2002 that things HAD changed. Good thing that came from it was my decision to take an active interest in my own finances and to reflect on the negative effects of greed : Greed does not make one objective. Still learning but feel more in control now. I saw fist hand the UK property market burst in 1990 just as I was starting my career. Eveybody was telling me to jump on the ladder as I'd miss it. Glad I didn't as most people my age ended up with negative equity (In some cases ~ 30% or 40%). When RE market stops, it happens fast as there is a chain of buyers. My take on this is that the people flipping houses will ultimately end up flipping burgers as it will wipe them out. In their eyes, it is not low risk but no risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 14, 2004 Report Share Posted March 14, 2004 Al Qaeda Fears May Hit World Markets http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;j...storyID=4562760 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeedFool Posted March 14, 2004 Report Share Posted March 14, 2004 The Second Lie So the PPI is buried, now how does the administration get rid of inflation?? Answer:? Fuel Surcharges.? Fuel surcharges aren't counted as "inflation" because they are deemed "extraordinary."?? I expect there has been a rash of phone calls from the neocons to their corporatist pals with a simple requestr:? "You're a patriot, right?? OK, we need you not to raise your rates.? Use? a "fuel surcharge" instead, so we don't have to report high inflation,? OK?? That way you will make the same amount of money at your corporation - and be doing a big favor for the President, who we all know needs a second term in order to defend our American Way of Life, right?"? "Err...I guess so..."? "The President thanks you..." Don't know about oil , but.............. Many in my industry are going the "surcharge" route rather than simply jacking up prices. Why?, .......because some of these guys sell products that are 80% steel. And yes it is most critical that the sharp increase in price be percieved as "extraordinary" "temporary" and due to factors beyond both control and human comprehension.As if these price increases are coming from outer space rather than malfeasance on the part of the government . I don't know whether or not these steel guys have been encouraged to do this in order to protect the no inflation administration or they are just doing it because they have no other loophole in their supply contracts, but either way this method of passing on the price hike has become very popular. It has been a normal practice to put surcharge on steel and stainless steel. Cooper and brass prices are control by the LME; any changes are passed on instantly. If one has priced the job right then raw material price will only represent small proportion of finished components price. Never get involved with car manufactures unless one is used to giving margin away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
depends Posted March 14, 2004 Report Share Posted March 14, 2004 Al Qaeda Fears May Hit World Markets Shure, blame it on AQ. It's not the fault of the FED, the Economy, the stinkin Jobs picture, the waste of resources, the dumbing down, the gambling in equities, the bloated house prices, the digital money, the low interest, the lack of savings, the mismanagement of government, the senseless arms race, the quagmire of war,etc, etc. No; AQ did it. Everything else is fine and will work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yaryman Posted March 14, 2004 Report Share Posted March 14, 2004 "Bombs Kill 4 U.S. Soldiers in Iraq Since the start of the war to oust Saddam, 389 U.S. troops have been killed in action in Iraq -- 274 of them since Washington declared major combat over on May 1 last year." When does this start to bother people? These next statements may seem political, they aren't. They are just the facts. The President of the US lies about there being WMD so we can attack Iraq. The Spanish ambassador to the US lies about who's was responsible for the rail attacks. Does anybody walking upright think our government has any qualms about making up inflation numbers? Look for those PPI numbers to be released on Wednesday November 3rd, 2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BAREister Posted March 14, 2004 Report Share Posted March 14, 2004 I saw fist hand the UK property market burst in 1990 just as I was starting my career. Eveybody was telling me to jump on the ladder as I'd miss it. Glad I didn't as most people my age ended up with negative equity (In some cases ~ 30% or 40%). When RE market stops, it happens fast as there is a chain of buyers. HRFF hASS remarked upon the parlous (to wit: negative equity) condition of many (most?) younger RE owners in the UK in the early 1990's many X here an on UDDER boreds. FURtunately FUR them, RE prices in the UK recovered. BARE doubts that the markets will be so FURgiving in the event that negative equity should EVER (HEAVEN FURfend!!!) permeate RE markets HEEEEER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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