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Ids 3/5/04


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I will say this after watching TBones flop around like a swordfish on a fishermans boat... J6P has absolutely no idea or concept about the depths of our debt derivative pyramid and how close they are to once again becoming victims of "when genius failed"....

 

Try to talk to someone about gold, the weak dollar, or the credit bubble and they look at you like you just walked in front of their Plasma and switched of the last episode of Freinds...

 

This thing is has more tenticles than and octupus...

 

Ag

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As we all should have learned four years ago, the asset bubble is the gravest risk of all. And that could well be the ultimate irony of the great inflation-deflation debate. From the start, my case for US deflation was critically dependent on the perils of a post-bubble shakeout. History tells us that most serious deflations arise from just such circumstances. Just ask Japan, or take a look at America in the 1930s. For the time being, a rapidly growing US economy may well have sidestepped the immediate perils of a CPI-based deflation. But it may not be so lucky in the aftermath of the bursting of another asset bubble. Unlike the situation four years ago, when the Fed had 600 basis points of ammunition to fight the post-bubble damage-containment battle, the central bank only has 100 bp left in its arsenal today.

 

With risks of new asset bubbles rising, there is a growing urgency for a normalization of US interest rates. Unwinding an ever-dangerous carry trade is a small price to pay to avoid the most treacherous endgame of all. America, in my view, is probably only one bubble away from outright deflation. Paul Volcker had the courage to stand up to inflation in 1979. Now it?s up to Alan Greenspan to wage an equally heroic battle.

 

Roach's Latest

 

Sounds a bit like Hip-Cat in that first paragraph.

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Hey Guys,

 

Just a couple of observations from my point of view...again:

 

The market is going higher....and will erase the negative opening today.

The spike in gold will be erased by the end of the day.

 

In Summary...The Economy Is JUST RIGHT!!!

 

PS: Your Gotta Love IT!!!

 

PSS: MH come see me and I'll hire you. Have a feelin I'm gonna need another assistant.

 

Be Well

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Serious question- who's thinking of shorting bonds?

I intend to short JGBs, I am long German bunds and I think US bonds are going much lower in the medium term but that they possibly have one trip higher in price before they crap out.

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