Goldmember Posted February 17, 2004 Report Share Posted February 17, 2004 "Timing is everything, as Granny said." Yuppers! Here's one for the trader who is not faint of heart and likes a bit of an extreme risk/reward scenario. In this example, below, it would involve the most extreme of risk/reward. Front month QQQ 37 strike call option, the one that expires on Friday of next week, last traded at 40 cents per share on Friday. Given that I believe a 5-day cycle bottomed on Friday's washout, that plummeted the price of that option down to 40 cents, I would expect that on Tuesday this 40 cent call option will be a fabulous candidate for a 50% return in one day, thus the call option should theoretically rise to at least 60 cents, if not more, by the end of the day on Tuesday. Now there is one fabulous return for a 1-day effort. There is even a possibility that this trade could return 100% in 1 day. It depends. Caveat: You are on your own buddy! Don't come whining to me if it doesn't play out like that. Of course, if there is a massive gap up on Tuesday morning then just let it go. No point in chasing it. It should have been bought on Friday. Whether the long weekend is included in eating up time premium may also influence Tuesday's opening price. If the market opens flatish Tuesday morning then grab some, especially so if the long weekend ate up some time premium. The ultimate would be to snag it for 35 cents and hold it till just before the end of the day. It would not surprise me in the least to see a 100% return on that for one day. Did I mention that I just LOVE scam week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted February 17, 2004 Report Share Posted February 17, 2004 Does anyone know, or care to speculate what that enormous spike in large time deposits over the last month was all about.? At the same time we saw a big move up in the market, and reliquefaction of the financial company commerical paper market.? Could the BoJ be recycling their USD reserves directly into the US banking system in the form of large CD's? Regardless of the cause, how long can this behavior continue. Intuitively it seems like a one shot deal. Enquiring minds want to know. This is a just a guess, but out of about of the $50 billion in January intervention by the MOF about up to $10 billion didn't show up under Fed custody. Possibly this was just held in some type of account balance/deposit until the Treasury re-financing last week. If so, we will find this out in a few weeks or so after all the Fed and BOJ Febraury reports are released. Also there have been significant benchmark revisions and possibly new seasonal adjustments lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lb Posted February 17, 2004 Report Share Posted February 17, 2004 Very interesting times. I was assuming a competitive currency devaluation death spiral. If we head into deflation, how do you see currencies being impacted? The conventional thinking is that currencies do quite well in deflation, right? Wanton printing press behavior is not necessarily diagnostic of imminent demise. I wonder how much the Japanese printed...and look at the Yen, it can hardly be held back. Maybe it will collapse....in 5,10,15 years. Who cares? Not I. We likely are in an inflationary blip along the road to deflation and I only say this because debt liquidation is inevitable and large. Thus, debt-associated stuff will deflate and cash-on-barrel stuff could inflate. This whole inflation story is like trying to grab mercury.....somewhat confusing, with all due respect to Dr. Copper, who says:"Hahahahahaha". I think you referred to stagflation....why not? The CRB is up in dollar terms, mainly.....and I suspect this is jamming the guru radar a bit. Gold, however, is likely to outperform the CRB handily. Also, I have alluded to an energy crisis ahead of us, but again........how much is 1979 gasoline in inflation-adjusted dollar terms? Cheaper, methinks. Tuff stuff.......... Anyway, I do not care which way it goes, as long as I can make good profits and not take stupid risks. This is a slightly treacherous and pure trading environment and it will be treated that way. Maybe this is the currency warning? If so.....good, we have been warned. Let's see how it goes. ...and energy...hardly a collapsing scenario, at present: Oil and gas index. Quite bullish, eh? I play what is handed to me. If the world gets stuck in the mud, demand for everything slows. But with populations like India and China longing to drive home in their very own car, it?s hard to see demand for oil diminishing. The worlds standard of living is linked to its energy consumption. Oil is not the only way to use energy. Lots of options are open. Coal gasification, LNG, limitless renewables and efficiency improvements are all ready to take off. If they don?t, stagnation takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T_Minus Posted February 17, 2004 Report Share Posted February 17, 2004 Does anyone know, or care to speculate what that enormous spike in large time deposits over the last month was all about. At the same time we saw a big move up in the market, and reliquefaction of the financial company commerical paper market. Could the BoJ be recycling their USD reserves directly into the US banking system in the form of large CD's? Regardless of the cause, how long can this behavior continue. Intuitively it seems like a one shot deal. Enquiring minds want to know. Is a geometrically increasing dollar weakness a one time deal? We may not have 67 billion intervention in Febuary, but the 134 billion intervention month is coming down the pipe. The currents going to keep going up till the Japs fry. I think they have actually reached the point of mental disease where they simply cannot stop themselves. Or God is "pushing" them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
An Ant Posted February 17, 2004 Report Share Posted February 17, 2004 Is this why futures are up ? ReutersFebruary 16, 2004, 8:55 AM PT Global sales of chip-making equipment rose 48.8 percent in December from the previous month to $2.59 billion, an industry group said Monday, citing strong spending by Japanese, South Korean and Taiwanese chip makers. http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;j...storyID=4364165 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chibear Posted February 17, 2004 Report Share Posted February 17, 2004 Fact A: This board is compromised of a diminishing number of die-hard secular bears, and an increasing number of bears who have become proficient traders in the cyclical bull (myself included, at least so far this year). Most others, regrettably, have left. Fact B: Bull/bear ratios have little timing value Fact C: Cyclical factors affecting the overall market this week will be the dollar, money inflows, options expiry and Johnny Lawless' Refi Boomer II. Fact D: There is nothing to indicate that manic behavior in the US has subsided; I went to a "progressive" party this weekend, hosted by some well-to-do Dallasites, and working the crowd, it was all spend,spend,spend. Interestingly, each of the 3 homes my wife and I went to were $1M plus homes...and each was for sale. These subtle "home sales parties" I haven't seen since the early 90's, and before then, Amway/Quixtar b.s. I remember a time a decaade ago when you couldn't find a party that wasn't hosted in a home that was, coincidentally, for sale. Wine and dine your friends, then bring down the hammer. Conclusion: same as Doc's. We probably go up a little more. But the slam-down will be one to behold. For me, trannies seem to hold the key.But it seems to me that the real estate market is behaving like any other market at the top...the guys sitting on the biggest winners, sitting on the seven-figure mansions, are starting to behave like they want to take some profits. Roger Arnold's coming refi boom will be the real-estate equivalent of "distribution". LOU: Excellent comment. I especially like your analysis of the progressive home party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chibear Posted February 17, 2004 Report Share Posted February 17, 2004 I got What's My Line mixed up another show, Truth or Consequences I think. It was Dorothy Kilgallen, not Kitty Kilgallen. John Daly is at upper left, Bennet Cerf below, and Arlene Francis. Mebbe your thinking of Kitty Carlisle who was a regular on I've Got a Secret with Gary Moore, Jayne Meadows (Alice Kramden of the Honeynooners) and others. Mebbe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metamucil Posted February 17, 2004 Report Share Posted February 17, 2004 The worlds standard of living is linked to its energy consumption. Oil is not the only way to use energy. Lots of options are open. Coal gasification, LNG, limitless renewables and efficiency improvements are all ready to take off.If they don?t, stagnation takes over. The only problem is that those alternatives are not advanced enough to feed this country's megalomanic thirst for fossil fuel. I believe the time has come......to invade Canada..... This P&F projects to $48 per barrel.......... Maybe this all portends a MUCH more laid back lifestyle....heaven forbid, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted February 17, 2004 Report Share Posted February 17, 2004 In Canuck bucks: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 17, 2004 Report Share Posted February 17, 2004 Your Golden Stool, including short and long term updated charts and price targets, is loaded each morning. Even if you are not a goldbug, you should check out the Golden Stool, a daily Anals release. Take a subscribatory and get the latest release of the Golden Stool from your Anals RIGHT NOW! Don't miss another Golden Stool! 15 Day Intro Subscribatory. Just $2.99! Get In RIGHT NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patriot Posted February 17, 2004 Report Share Posted February 17, 2004 Hello, Been away a while. Can anyone tell me if Brian4 is still around? I miss his post. Most Appreciated. If not does he have a email site to contact him? Best Day patriot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lb Posted February 17, 2004 Report Share Posted February 17, 2004 The only problem is that those alternatives are not advanced enough to feed this country's megalomanic thirst for fossil fuel. I believe the time has come......to invade Canada..... All the regular and alternative sources pumping 24/7 still won?t cut it if half the Chinese who want cars ever get them. And how the hell did more of our oil get under Canada? Forget invasion, these are grounds for all out liberation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zensmoke Posted February 17, 2004 Report Share Posted February 17, 2004 Hello, Been away a while. Can anyone tell me if Brian4 is still around? I miss his post. Most Appreciated. If not does he have a email site to contact him? Best Day patriot patriot--you can find Brian4 over at the B4 The Bell Thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted February 17, 2004 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2004 New highs in most of Asia tonight, except Japan. Dollar down. Gold and silver up. U.S. stock futures up. Tomorrow is going to be a big day to the upside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patriot Posted February 17, 2004 Report Share Posted February 17, 2004 Thanks zensmoke. patriot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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