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That was cute. All of the market's gains came in a nanosecond after the closing bell last night. But they were prepping for it. The dealers had a heads up and shook the trees early in the day to gather the low hanging fruit to add to their inventories. Everyone else seemed to get the memo throughout the day. And so we had a chart that looked like this. 

14kfyt

The chart is a mess. The ES, 24 hour S&P futures are coming off a 5 day cycle low. The up phase should last until Tuesday or Wednesday. But there's no indication yet if it will gain momentum and result in an upside breakout. That seems more likely than the alternative of a stall here, with an early downside reversal, but the signals are mixed at this point. For today, there are no clear up or downtrend channels to work with either. 

The trend spport line to watch runs from about 5070 at 8 AM ET and extrapolates to around 5085 at the closing bell. They'd need to break that to gain a toehold on the downside. On the upside, they'd hit resistance in the 5110-15 area. Clearing that would complete a nice base with a measured move implication of around 5225 +/-. 

I run daily screens for my own swing trading and they're not giving much either. Very few trigger signals either way. 

We're still in the bullish post April 15 seasonal liquidity period, where tax collections result in big T-bill paydowns. Those paydowns are more than enough to fund a big end of month coupon settlement.  Watch Closely as Warning Signs Abound

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Posted

They've cleared the base at this point. If it holds, the conventional measured move target would be 5245. 

14kp1j

Posted

The longs puked. 

Wait till Monday. 

Bonne weekend to all! 

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